Cajun Softball OWP

[Boomer]

So what are our hosting chances NUMBER wise?????? Isn't that what this is all about???

[gatadotcom]

So what are our hosting chances NUMBER wise?????? Isn't that what this is all about???

As long as the NCAA Softball Committee ranks you in their top 16 in their final end-of-season seeding, you will host (if you have submitted the paperwork saying you want to host and you have the proper facilities) a Regional. The top 8 teams from their pre-Regional seeding (again, those that have the proper facilities) that have won Regionals will host the Super Regionals.

[Cajun90]

As long as the NCAA Softball Committee ranks you in their top 16 in their final end-of-season seeding, you will host (if you have submitted the paperwork saying you want to host and you have the proper facilities) a Regional. The top 8 teams from their pre-Regional seeding (again, those that have the proper facilities) that have won Regionals will host the Super Regionals.

You are correct but just a point of clarification so some don't get confused by what you stated.

You are talking about how the NCAA selection committee ranks the teams and NOT the published RPI ranking. While these two items usually are very close I don't ever recall them being exactly the same.

I'm feeling pretty confident in us being able to maintain a top sixteen slot in the committee selections but top eight will be difficult. This coming Wednesday will be an extremely important game for us.

[GoneGolfin]

As long as the NCAA Softball Committee ranks you in their top 16 in their final end-of-season seeding, you will host (if you have submitted the paperwork saying you want to host and you have the proper facilities) a Regional.

Not quite. There are occasionally #1 seeds that do not host and their facilities are fine. This happens because the NCAA requires a regional somewhere else to achieve geographical balance.

This was the case for #14 seed Oklahoma in 2010. That season, the NCAA had four non #1 seed hosts ...

Stanford, Massachusetts, Ohio State, and Maryland.

Stanford was really just a replacement for #11 California that does not have the facilities to host. Cal also did not host in 2011 and will not host in 2012.

#16 Hawaii also did not host as they have geographic problems. The NCAA attempts to place at least two teams (other than the host) that can drive to the regional site (considered 400 miles or less). This does not always work. But with Hawaii, you are guaranteed three fly-ins.

#13 Arizona State did not host. But I believe this is the season that work was being done on both the baseball and softball facilities.

In 2011 ... in addition to #7 Cal not hosting, #13 Oregon did not host. I do not recall Oregon having facilities problems, but I am not sure.

Arizona has been one of the #1 seeds in the past and was passed over as a host due to geography.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Not quite. There are occasionally #1 seeds that do not host and their facilities are fine. This happens because the NCAA requires a regional somewhere else to achieve geographical balance.

This was the case for #14 seed Oklahoma in 2010. That season, the NCAA had four non #1 seed hosts ...

Stanford, Massachusetts, Ohio State, and Maryland.

Stanford was really just a replacement for #11 California that does not have the facilities to host. Cal also did not host in 2011 and will not host in 2012.

#16 Hawaii also did not host as they have geographic problems. The NCAA attempts to place at least two teams (other than the host) that can drive to the regional site (considered 400 miles or less). This does not always work. But with Hawaii, you are guaranteed three fly-ins.

#13 Arizona State did not host. But I believe this is the season that work was being done on both the baseball and softball facilities.

In 2011 ... in addition to #7 Cal not hosting, #13 Oregon did not host. I do not recall Oregon having facilities problems, but I am not sure.

Arizona has been one of the #1 seeds in the past and was passed over as a host due to geography.

Brian

Now, as far as geography is concerned for the Cajuns, there are some things that I am liking right now. By no means is this exhaustive, but are some things that come immediately to mind.

- McNeese State is having a good season. It would be beneficial for the Cajuns if they could earn the Southland NCAA bid. Their RPI is just outside the at-large pool (lowest at-large bids in 2011 were 48, 43, 40 ... 2010 saw 54, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41), so an at-large bid is not outside the realm of possibility if they finish strong.

- LSU would be a reasonable #2 seed in Lafayette. So would Baylor, except they have an RPI of a #3 seed. And while the NCAA does not seed teams other than the #1 seeds, they do try to achieve balance ... but at the same time, will not hesitate to place what most would consider two #2 seeds in the same regional if geography warrants it.

- The SWAC favorites are Jackson State and Mississippi Valley State. These schools would work as a #4 seed. Even Prairie View A&M would work. I do not hold much hope for Southern.

- Mississippi State is also a potential regional team within driving distance to Lafayette.

Some other candidates ...

Houston (if they qualify), could go to Austin, Lafayette, or College Station.

And back to Baylor ... Waco is just under 400 miles to Lafayette and the Cajuns visited the Waco regional in 2009 ... why not a return visit? Baylor cannot go to Austin, College Station (not in the SEC yet), or Norman.

Texas State could visit Lafayette (San Marcos is just under 400 miles), but usually winds up in Austin or Waco (Baylor not hosting this season).

Sam Houston State could also visit Lafayette, but would likely end up in Austin or College Station (if the Aggies host).

Texas A&M is possibly competition for a regional host site. But there may be enough teams in the field to support three regionals in the area (Austin, Lafayette, College Station). It also helps when there are teams just east of Louisiana that can drive to Lafayette.

Potential regional sites in our regional South ...

- Alabama
- Texas
- Louisiana
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma

The above are potential sites that could lure teams away from Lafayette. I have Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee as being likely too distant. For example, Sam Houston State and possibly Texas State (402 miles) could go to Norman, Oklahoma as well. MVSU and Jackson State could both go to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Fortunately in the above list of five, three are from the same conference ... thus some schools are eliminated from consideration. For example, Baylor could only go to Lafayette (and drive).

How about the following regional in Lafayette ...

#1 Louisiana
#2 LSU
#3 Baylor
#4 Jackson State

The opening #2 vs. #3 game might never end because neither team can score. :-)

Brian

[LuLu]

Now, as far as geography is concerned for the Cajuns, there are some things that I am liking right now. By no means is this exhaustive, but are some things that come immediately to mind.

- McNeese State is having a good season. It would be beneficial for the Cajuns if they could earn the Southland NCAA bid. Their RPI is just outside the at-large pool (lowest at-large bids in 2011 were 48, 43, 40 ... 2010 saw 54, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41), so an at-large bid is not outside the realm of possibility if they finish strong.

- LSU would be a reasonable #2 seed in Lafayette. So would Baylor, except they have an RPI of a #3 seed. And while the NCAA does not seed teams other than then #1 seeds, they do try to achieve balance ... but at the same time, will not hesitate to place what most would consider two #2 seeds in the same regional if geography warrants it.

- The SWAC favorites are Jackson State and Mississippi Valley State. These schools would work as a #4 seed. Even Prairie View A&M would work. I do not hold much hope for Southern.

- Mississippi State is also a potential regional team within driving distance to Lafayette.

Some other candidates ...

Houston (if they qualify), could go to Austin, Lafayette, or College Station.

Waco is just under 400 miles to Lafayette and the Cajuns visited the Waco regional in 2009 ... why not a return visit? Baylor cannot go to Austin, College Station (not in the SEC yet), or Norman.

Texas State could visit Lafayette (San Marcos is just under 400 miles), but usually winds up in Austin or Waco (Baylor not hosting this season).

Sam Houston State could also visit Lafayette, but would likely end up in Austin or College Station (if the Aggies host).

Texas A&M is possibly competition for a regional host site. But there may be enough teams in the field to support three regionals in the area (Austin, Lafayette, College Station). It also helps when there are teams just east of Louisiana that can drive to Lafayette.

Potential regional sites in our regional South ...

- Alabama
- Texas
- Louisiana
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma

The above are potential sites that could lure teams away from Lafayette. I have Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee as being likely too distant. For example, Sam Houston State and possibly Texas State (402 miles) could go to Norman, Oklahoma as well. MVSU and Jackson State could both go to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Fortunately in the above list of five, three are from the same conference ... thus some schools are eliminated from consideration. For example, Baylor could only go to Lafayette.

How about the following regional in Lafayette ...

#1 Louisiana
#2 LSU
#3 Baylor
#4 Jackson State

The opening #2 vs. #3 game might never end because neither team can score. :-)

Brian

I like the way you think! Sounds good to me.

[GoneGolfin]

Cajuns' OWP (through results date) ...
3/25 .5405
3/27 .5436
3/28 .5407
3/30 .5430

Through Friday (3/30) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5430
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5311

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6511
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6667

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6516
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6646

Brian

Through Saturday (3/31) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5420
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5272

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6505
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6661

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6497
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6627

I am expecting OOWP to move up this week.

Brian

[Boomer]

I haven't kept up with LSU but on their baseball broadcast WWL of the UL game they mentioned howthe girls were on a roll---guess this scares me---what is their latest???

[CajunEXPRESS]

I haven't kept up with LSU but on their baseball broadcast WWL of the UL game they mentioned howthe girls were on a roll---guess this scares me---what is their latest???

Boomer they are 10-0 over their last ten games, and 11-2 over their last thirteen games. They play Arkansas today and are 2-0 over them this weekend. Next week they play at Alabama. If they are not swept at Bama they will make great strides because it looks like they will win again today as Ark. has not been able to score.

http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect...74&SPSID=27871

The only thing this squand can worry about is their next at bat, their next play, we cannot worry, nor should we, about what specific teams we play do. We have zero ability to change what those other teams do

[GoneGolfin]

Through Saturday (3/31) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5420
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5272

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6505
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6661

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6497
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6627

I am expecting OOWP to move up this week.

Brian

It was a good Sunday for Cajun opponents. OWP is up for the week ... and while I do not have the numbers yet, I would be surprised if the Cajuns' OOWP is not up this week. Several Cajun opponents played some teams with gaudy W-L records this week. But this is just a guess and I could easily be wrong.

These will be the numbers used in next week's NCAA RPI report. Through Sunday (4/1) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5467
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5316

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6529
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6685 (bonuses of .0156)

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6519
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6649 (bonuses of .0130)

It should be noted that there could be some changes in bonuses this week.

Bonuses that could be at risk ...

- Base RPI 22 Michigan (possible fall from .0026 to .0013)
- Base RPI 36 Mississippi State (possible fall from .0013 to 0, but they are probably fine)
- Base RPI 49 Northwestern (possible fall from .0013 to 0)

Bonuses that could be added ...

- Base RPI 29 Troy (possible move from .0013 to .0026 ... though they were 2-2 on the week, so probably not)
- Base RPI 35 Georgia Tech (currently at .0013 ... 4-0 this week, but probably not enough yet)
- Base RPI 52 McNeese State (just outside Top 50 ... 2-2 this week with losses to LSU and SLU ... probably remains outside Top 50)
- Base RPI 58 Kentucky (went 1-3 this week, but three games were vs. Tennessee (with one win) and one vs. Louisville ... OWP will receive a nice bump ... and I guarantee you their RPI will be higher)

South Alabama is not on the schedule yet, but will be after next weekend. South Alabama had a Base RPI of 51 coming into the week and went 4-0 with a single win over Troy and weekend sweep of Middle Tennessee. South Alabama could get swept next weekend by the Cajuns and I am certain their RPI will rise. So, they have a shot to be in the Base RPI Top 50 next Monday.

This is a big week for the Cajuns. Four games against teams hovering around #50 ... with the potential for bonus points in the future. And at the risk of repeating my earlier points, the game Wednesday vs. McNeese State is the final non-conference game of the year. The Cajuns have a chance to go 26-0 in non-conference play. A win would secure them a very high Non-Conference RPI and RPI ranking, which will be part of the decision criteria when awarding #1 seeds. No team has gone undefeated in Non-Conference play since Tennessee went 30-0 in 2007. It would be quite a feat!

Brian