Cajun Softball OWP

[GoneGolfin]

Cajuns' OWP (through results date) ...
3/25 .5405
3/27 .5436
3/28 .5407
3/30 .5430

Through Friday (3/30) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5430
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5311

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6511
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6667

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6516
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6646

Brian

Through Saturday (3/31) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5420
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5272

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6505
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6661

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6497
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6627

I am expecting OOWP to move up this week.

Brian

[Boomer]

I haven't kept up with LSU but on their baseball broadcast WWL of the UL game they mentioned howthe girls were on a roll---guess this scares me---what is their latest???

[CajunEXPRESS]

I haven't kept up with LSU but on their baseball broadcast WWL of the UL game they mentioned howthe girls were on a roll---guess this scares me---what is their latest???

Boomer they are 10-0 over their last ten games, and 11-2 over their last thirteen games. They play Arkansas today and are 2-0 over them this weekend. Next week they play at Alabama. If they are not swept at Bama they will make great strides because it looks like they will win again today as Ark. has not been able to score.

http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect...74&SPSID=27871

The only thing this squand can worry about is their next at bat, their next play, we cannot worry, nor should we, about what specific teams we play do. We have zero ability to change what those other teams do

[GoneGolfin]

Through Saturday (3/31) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5420
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5272

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6505
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6661

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6497
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6627

I am expecting OOWP to move up this week.

Brian

It was a good Sunday for Cajun opponents. OWP is up for the week ... and while I do not have the numbers yet, I would be surprised if the Cajuns' OOWP is not up this week. Several Cajun opponents played some teams with gaudy W-L records this week. But this is just a guess and I could easily be wrong.

These will be the numbers used in next week's NCAA RPI report. Through Sunday (4/1) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5467
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5316

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6529
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6685 (bonuses of .0156)

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6519
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6649 (bonuses of .0130)

It should be noted that there could be some changes in bonuses this week.

Bonuses that could be at risk ...

- Base RPI 22 Michigan (possible fall from .0026 to .0013)
- Base RPI 36 Mississippi State (possible fall from .0013 to 0, but they are probably fine)
- Base RPI 49 Northwestern (possible fall from .0013 to 0)

Bonuses that could be added ...

- Base RPI 29 Troy (possible move from .0013 to .0026 ... though they were 2-2 on the week, so probably not)
- Base RPI 35 Georgia Tech (currently at .0013 ... 4-0 this week, but probably not enough yet)
- Base RPI 52 McNeese State (just outside Top 50 ... 2-2 this week with losses to LSU and SLU ... probably remains outside Top 50)
- Base RPI 58 Kentucky (went 1-3 this week, but three games were vs. Tennessee (with one win) and one vs. Louisville ... OWP will receive a nice bump ... and I guarantee you their RPI will be higher)

South Alabama is not on the schedule yet, but will be after next weekend. South Alabama had a Base RPI of 51 coming into the week and went 4-0 with a single win over Troy and weekend sweep of Middle Tennessee. South Alabama could get swept next weekend by the Cajuns and I am certain their RPI will rise. So, they have a shot to be in the Base RPI Top 50 next Monday.

This is a big week for the Cajuns. Four games against teams hovering around #50 ... with the potential for bonus points in the future. And at the risk of repeating my earlier points, the game Wednesday vs. McNeese State is the final non-conference game of the year. The Cajuns have a chance to go 26-0 in non-conference play. A win would secure them a very high Non-Conference RPI and RPI ranking, which will be part of the decision criteria when awarding #1 seeds. No team has gone undefeated in Non-Conference play since Tennessee went 30-0 in 2007. It would be quite a feat!

Brian

[Turbine]

RS OOC: "One more win" "One more win"

[GoneGolfin]

Original post from March 16th ...

Through yesterday's games, the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is still lingering below .500 with a .4890. However, in the aggregate, Cajun opponents in that OWP have scheduled strong non-conference schedules. Once they begin moving into the weaker part of their schedules, this should begin to correct itself and I expect the Cajuns' OWP to rise. The Cajuns' OOWP will also reflect this early season schedule strength.

It is always good to look back and reflect on one of the tenets of our scheduling strategy, which in our case consists of focusing on opponents with strong OWP contributions to the Cajuns' RPI that are quite beatable, while de-emphasizing their OOWP contribution and overall RPI rank.

When the above post was originally written, the Cajuns had an overall OWP of .4890. After this weekend, their OWP sits at .5402.

Some examples ...

Hofstra is currently 2-10 (.1667) in non-UL games. Hofstra is a much better team than this and have been beaten up by the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Michigan, Depaul, UCLA, Virginia, East Carolina, etc. They no longer have any ranked teams remaining on their schedule and will be immersed in CAA conference play soon.

Since starting 2-10, Hofstra has gone 33-3 to amass a 35-13 record. They have won 14 consecutive games and 30 of their last 31. This results in a .7447 (35-12) contribution to the Cajuns' OWP.

Other schools like Winthrop (11-11, .5000), Boston (10-6, .6250), and Mississippi Valley State (11-11, .5000) are doing OK, but should see their winning percentage increase dramatically as they move into the second half of their schedule.

Boston (winners of 13 of their last 14) finished 27-8 from this point for a 37-14 record and a .7400 (37-13) contribution to the Cajuns' OWP. Mississippi Valley State has won 13 consecutive games to post a 29-16 record and a .6591 contribution to the Cajuns' OWP.

Unfortunately, the Cajuns were only able to play one game against each of these opponents. Once you find these good opponents, you want to schedule multiple games ... this is one way to make the schedule even more RPI friendly. It should be noted that the Cajuns did have a second game scheduled against Mississippi Valley State, but rain forced a cancellation.

Winthrop was a surprise ... they finished very poorly after beating one of the best teams in the country (Tennessee). Winthrop contributed a poor .3077 (16-36) to the Cajuns' OWP. I am not sure what happened to them ... maybe they had some significant injuries.

At the end of the regular season, the top OWP contributions to the Cajuns' RPI are ...

#1 Arizona State .9184
#2 Tulsa .7755
#3 (tie) South Alabama, Hofstra .7447
#5 Boston .7400
#6 Michigan .7200
#7 Mississippi Valley State .6591
#8 McNeese State .6400
#9 (tie) Georgia Tech, Houston .6346

Brian

[Turbine]

Thanks for the rewind perspective Brian.