Cajun Softball OWP

[GoneGolfin]

Based on the data that I have, I was able to reverse engineer the other components of the Cajuns' RPI. We now know the OOWP and the RPI bonuses.

WP: .9677
OWP: .5405
OOWP: .5505
SOS: .5438
---
Base RPI: .6498 (Base RPI Rank: #7)
RPI Bonuses: .0156 (10 wins qualifying for RPI bonus)
---
Adjusted RPI: .6654 (Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Without the RPI bonuses, the Cajuns would have an Adjusted RPI rank of #13.

Brian

I have calculated the same for the Cajuns' Non-Conference RPI (NC RPI) ...

NC WP: 1.0000
NC WP: .5248
NC OOWP: .5444
NC SOS: .5313
---
NC Base RPI: .6485
NC RPI Bonuses: .0130 (8 wins qualifying for NC RPI bonus)
---
NC Adjusted RPI: .6615 (NC Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Without the RPI bonuses, the Cajuns would have a NC Adjusted RPI rank of #11.

NC Adjusted RPI Rankings
#1 Alabama (.7018)
#2 Louisville (.6677)
#3 California (.6661)
#4 Hawaii (.6650)
#5 Louisiana (.6615)
#6 Arizona State (.6581)
#7 Tennessee (.6578)
#8 Florida (.6566)
#9 Texas (.6540)
#10 Oregon (.6498)

Brian

[ulforlife]

So we need all the teams we've played to keep winning. That's kind of bogus to give 50% to OWP, all that does is help the power conferences. In fact, LSU will continue to move up even if they lose just because they are set to play Florida, Georgia, Alabama, etc. we need them to get swept once or twice or they could be looking to host too

[GoneGolfin]

So we need all the teams we've played to keep winning. That's kind of bogus to give 50% to OWP, all that does is help the power conferences. In fact, LSU will continue to move up even if they lose just because they are set to play Florida, Georgia, Alabama, etc. we need them to get swept once or twice or they could be looking to host too

This gets compounded by the fact that RPI bonuses are awarded for all wins vs. the Base RPI Top 50 in Softball ... not just non-conference games ... and not just road games ... unlike baseball. The bonuses are also larger than that of baseball.

LSU will be receiving a huge boost to their OWP, simply for showing up at the stadium. And if they happen to snag an occasional win, a nice fat RPI bonus will likely be in order.

At NCAA Softball selection time last season, Georgia led the country with 24 RPI bonus games to their credit. It took their Base RPI of .6539 to an Adjusted RPI of .7059 (increase of .0520) and an Adjusted RPI Rank of #2.

The Cajuns? They had 3 RPI bonus games to their credit and suffered a single RPI penalty game, good for a paltry net of .0052 (an order of magnitude less than that of Georgia).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Based on the data that I have, I was able to reverse engineer the other components of the Cajuns' RPI. We now know the OOWP and the RPI bonuses.

WP: .9677
OWP: .5405
OOWP: .5505
SOS: .5438
---
Base RPI: .6498 (Base RPI Rank: #7)
RPI Bonuses: .0156 (10 wins qualifying for RPI bonus)
---
Adjusted RPI: .6654 (Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Based on results through Tuesday 3/27 ...

- OWP has moved from .5405 to .5436
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5286

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6514
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6670

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6504
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6634

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Based on results through Tuesday 3/27 ...

- OWP has moved from .5405 to .5436
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5286

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6514
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6670

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6504
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6634

Brian

Cajuns' OWP (through results date) ...
3/25 .5405
3/27 .5436
3/28 .5407
3/30 .5430

Through Friday (3/30) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5430
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5311

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6511
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6667

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6516
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6646

Brian

[CajunFan89]

too... much... math..... brain..... going.... to.... explode

[Boomer]

So what are our hosting chances NUMBER wise?????? Isn't that what this is all about???

[gatadotcom]

So what are our hosting chances NUMBER wise?????? Isn't that what this is all about???

As long as the NCAA Softball Committee ranks you in their top 16 in their final end-of-season seeding, you will host (if you have submitted the paperwork saying you want to host and you have the proper facilities) a Regional. The top 8 teams from their pre-Regional seeding (again, those that have the proper facilities) that have won Regionals will host the Super Regionals.

[Cajun90]

As long as the NCAA Softball Committee ranks you in their top 16 in their final end-of-season seeding, you will host (if you have submitted the paperwork saying you want to host and you have the proper facilities) a Regional. The top 8 teams from their pre-Regional seeding (again, those that have the proper facilities) that have won Regionals will host the Super Regionals.

You are correct but just a point of clarification so some don't get confused by what you stated.

You are talking about how the NCAA selection committee ranks the teams and NOT the published RPI ranking. While these two items usually are very close I don't ever recall them being exactly the same.

I'm feeling pretty confident in us being able to maintain a top sixteen slot in the committee selections but top eight will be difficult. This coming Wednesday will be an extremely important game for us.

[GoneGolfin]

As long as the NCAA Softball Committee ranks you in their top 16 in their final end-of-season seeding, you will host (if you have submitted the paperwork saying you want to host and you have the proper facilities) a Regional.

Not quite. There are occasionally #1 seeds that do not host and their facilities are fine. This happens because the NCAA requires a regional somewhere else to achieve geographical balance.

This was the case for #14 seed Oklahoma in 2010. That season, the NCAA had four non #1 seed hosts ...

Stanford, Massachusetts, Ohio State, and Maryland.

Stanford was really just a replacement for #11 California that does not have the facilities to host. Cal also did not host in 2011 and will not host in 2012.

#16 Hawaii also did not host as they have geographic problems. The NCAA attempts to place at least two teams (other than the host) that can drive to the regional site (considered 400 miles or less). This does not always work. But with Hawaii, you are guaranteed three fly-ins.

#13 Arizona State did not host. But I believe this is the season that work was being done on both the baseball and softball facilities.

In 2011 ... in addition to #7 Cal not hosting, #13 Oregon did not host. I do not recall Oregon having facilities problems, but I am not sure.

Arizona has been one of the #1 seeds in the past and was passed over as a host due to geography.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Not quite. There are occasionally #1 seeds that do not host and their facilities are fine. This happens because the NCAA requires a regional somewhere else to achieve geographical balance.

This was the case for #14 seed Oklahoma in 2010. That season, the NCAA had four non #1 seed hosts ...

Stanford, Massachusetts, Ohio State, and Maryland.

Stanford was really just a replacement for #11 California that does not have the facilities to host. Cal also did not host in 2011 and will not host in 2012.

#16 Hawaii also did not host as they have geographic problems. The NCAA attempts to place at least two teams (other than the host) that can drive to the regional site (considered 400 miles or less). This does not always work. But with Hawaii, you are guaranteed three fly-ins.

#13 Arizona State did not host. But I believe this is the season that work was being done on both the baseball and softball facilities.

In 2011 ... in addition to #7 Cal not hosting, #13 Oregon did not host. I do not recall Oregon having facilities problems, but I am not sure.

Arizona has been one of the #1 seeds in the past and was passed over as a host due to geography.

Brian

Now, as far as geography is concerned for the Cajuns, there are some things that I am liking right now. By no means is this exhaustive, but are some things that come immediately to mind.

- McNeese State is having a good season. It would be beneficial for the Cajuns if they could earn the Southland NCAA bid. Their RPI is just outside the at-large pool (lowest at-large bids in 2011 were 48, 43, 40 ... 2010 saw 54, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41), so an at-large bid is not outside the realm of possibility if they finish strong.

- LSU would be a reasonable #2 seed in Lafayette. So would Baylor, except they have an RPI of a #3 seed. And while the NCAA does not seed teams other than the #1 seeds, they do try to achieve balance ... but at the same time, will not hesitate to place what most would consider two #2 seeds in the same regional if geography warrants it.

- The SWAC favorites are Jackson State and Mississippi Valley State. These schools would work as a #4 seed. Even Prairie View A&M would work. I do not hold much hope for Southern.

- Mississippi State is also a potential regional team within driving distance to Lafayette.

Some other candidates ...

Houston (if they qualify), could go to Austin, Lafayette, or College Station.

And back to Baylor ... Waco is just under 400 miles to Lafayette and the Cajuns visited the Waco regional in 2009 ... why not a return visit? Baylor cannot go to Austin, College Station (not in the SEC yet), or Norman.

Texas State could visit Lafayette (San Marcos is just under 400 miles), but usually winds up in Austin or Waco (Baylor not hosting this season).

Sam Houston State could also visit Lafayette, but would likely end up in Austin or College Station (if the Aggies host).

Texas A&M is possibly competition for a regional host site. But there may be enough teams in the field to support three regionals in the area (Austin, Lafayette, College Station). It also helps when there are teams just east of Louisiana that can drive to Lafayette.

Potential regional sites in our regional South ...

- Alabama
- Texas
- Louisiana
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma

The above are potential sites that could lure teams away from Lafayette. I have Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee as being likely too distant. For example, Sam Houston State and possibly Texas State (402 miles) could go to Norman, Oklahoma as well. MVSU and Jackson State could both go to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Fortunately in the above list of five, three are from the same conference ... thus some schools are eliminated from consideration. For example, Baylor could only go to Lafayette (and drive).

How about the following regional in Lafayette ...

#1 Louisiana
#2 LSU
#3 Baylor
#4 Jackson State

The opening #2 vs. #3 game might never end because neither team can score. :-)

Brian

[LuLu]

Now, as far as geography is concerned for the Cajuns, there are some things that I am liking right now. By no means is this exhaustive, but are some things that come immediately to mind.

- McNeese State is having a good season. It would be beneficial for the Cajuns if they could earn the Southland NCAA bid. Their RPI is just outside the at-large pool (lowest at-large bids in 2011 were 48, 43, 40 ... 2010 saw 54, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41), so an at-large bid is not outside the realm of possibility if they finish strong.

- LSU would be a reasonable #2 seed in Lafayette. So would Baylor, except they have an RPI of a #3 seed. And while the NCAA does not seed teams other than then #1 seeds, they do try to achieve balance ... but at the same time, will not hesitate to place what most would consider two #2 seeds in the same regional if geography warrants it.

- The SWAC favorites are Jackson State and Mississippi Valley State. These schools would work as a #4 seed. Even Prairie View A&M would work. I do not hold much hope for Southern.

- Mississippi State is also a potential regional team within driving distance to Lafayette.

Some other candidates ...

Houston (if they qualify), could go to Austin, Lafayette, or College Station.

Waco is just under 400 miles to Lafayette and the Cajuns visited the Waco regional in 2009 ... why not a return visit? Baylor cannot go to Austin, College Station (not in the SEC yet), or Norman.

Texas State could visit Lafayette (San Marcos is just under 400 miles), but usually winds up in Austin or Waco (Baylor not hosting this season).

Sam Houston State could also visit Lafayette, but would likely end up in Austin or College Station (if the Aggies host).

Texas A&M is possibly competition for a regional host site. But there may be enough teams in the field to support three regionals in the area (Austin, Lafayette, College Station). It also helps when there are teams just east of Louisiana that can drive to Lafayette.

Potential regional sites in our regional South ...

- Alabama
- Texas
- Louisiana
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma

The above are potential sites that could lure teams away from Lafayette. I have Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee as being likely too distant. For example, Sam Houston State and possibly Texas State (402 miles) could go to Norman, Oklahoma as well. MVSU and Jackson State could both go to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Fortunately in the above list of five, three are from the same conference ... thus some schools are eliminated from consideration. For example, Baylor could only go to Lafayette.

How about the following regional in Lafayette ...

#1 Louisiana
#2 LSU
#3 Baylor
#4 Jackson State

The opening #2 vs. #3 game might never end because neither team can score. :-)

Brian

I like the way you think! Sounds good to me.