Cajun Softball OWP

[GoneGolfin]

Accounting for the two games vs. Georgia Tech tonight (but not counting the results of other Cajun opponents tonight) ...

OWP is now .5185 (from .5141)
WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6790 (from .6760)

I can confidently say that the Cajuns' OOWP went up tonight. Georgia Tech has played an impressive schedule.

Brian

Update through game results of 3/25/12 ...

While the Cajuns' WP dropped from 1.0000 to .9677, the all-important OWP rose from .5185 to 5442 this weekend (it is twice as important as WP). The result is that the combined WP+OWP (properly weighted) rose from .6790 to .6854.

If I use a conservative estimate of .5000 for the Cajuns' OOWP, we have an overall RPI of .6390 (up from .6343 before the weekend).

The Troy series was big from an RPI standpoint because it added a three-game weighted high OWP to the Cajuns' schedule. Excluding all of the other opponent games since the Georgia Tech series (Thursday), the Troy series brought the Cajuns' OWP from .5185 to .5427. So, despite the one loss to the Trojans, the Troy series alone brought the Cajuns' combined WP+OWP from .6790 to .6844. The play of other Cajun opponents this weekend was responsible for the remainder .0010 increase (.6844 to .6854).

As for the play of other Cajuns opponents this weekend, the following opponents significantly helped/hurt the Cajuns' OWP ...

Helped:
Hostra 3-0 (improved from .3125 to .4211)
Houston 3-0 (improved from .5769 to .6207) * 2-game weighted
Mississippi Valley State 4-0 (improved from .4815 to .5484)
Boston 4-0 (improved from .6818 to .7308)
Tulsa 3-0 (improved from .7917 to .8148)

Note that I did not include Arizona State above because their WP is so close to 1.0000, wins do not help much. However, losses will hurt. Going 3-0 vs. Arizona this weekend only brings the Cajuns' OWP for Arizona State from .9333 to .9394. We will however, get a decent boost in OOWP from ASU adding Arizona to their schedule (weighted as three games).

I also did not include Michigan as they swept three games from Penn State (both single game opponents of the Cajuns). Though the effect is not completely a wash due to the effects of wins/losses compiled against OWPs over or under .5000.

Hurt:
North Texas is at the top of the list, going 1-3 and seeing their portion of our OWP drop from .5217 to .4815 (weighted three games). Of course, NT going 1-2 vs. FIU this weekend will come back to the Cajuns fully when the Cajuns add FIU to their schedule (assuming all three games can be played).

Also, Rutgers, UTEP, Northwestern, and Mississippi State went 0-3 while Winthrop went 0-4.

Brian

[ulforlife]

The first RPI will be released this week correct?

[GoneGolfin]

The first RPI will be released this week correct?

It is supposed to be this week. I do recall the RPI being published on Monday's in the past, though they may not publish until tomorrow.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Update through game results of 3/25/12 ...

While the Cajuns' WP dropped from 1.0000 to .9677, the all-important OWP rose from .5185 to 5405 this weekend (it is twice as important as WP). The result is that the combined WP+OWP (properly weighted) rose from .6790 to .6854.

If I use a conservative estimate of .5000 for the Cajuns' OOWP, we have an overall RPI of .6390 (up from .6343 before the weekend).

Based on the data that I have, I was able to reverse engineer the other components of the Cajuns' RPI. We now know the OOWP and the RPI bonuses.

WP: .9677
OWP: .5405
OOWP: .5505
SOS: .5438
---
Base RPI: .6498 (Base RPI Rank: #7)
RPI Bonuses: .0156 (10 wins qualifying for RPI bonus)
---
Adjusted RPI: .6654 (Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Without the RPI bonuses, the Cajuns would have an Adjusted RPI rank of #13.

Adjusted RPI Rankings
#1 Alabama (.7000)
#2 Florida (.6879)
#3 California (.6878)
#4 Tennessee (.6845)
#5 Arizona State (.6790)
#6 Louisville (.6777)
#7 Louisiana (.6654)
#8 Texas (.6615)
#9 Washington (.6613)
#10 Oregon (.6561)

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Based on the data that I have, I was able to reverse engineer the other components of the Cajuns' RPI. We now know the OOWP and the RPI bonuses.

WP: .9677
OWP: .5405
OOWP: .5505
SOS: .5438
---
Base RPI: .6498 (Base RPI Rank: #7)
RPI Bonuses: .0156 (10 wins qualifying for RPI bonus)
---
Adjusted RPI: .6654 (Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Without the RPI bonuses, the Cajuns would have an Adjusted RPI rank of #13.

Brian

I have calculated the same for the Cajuns' Non-Conference RPI (NC RPI) ...

NC WP: 1.0000
NC WP: .5248
NC OOWP: .5444
NC SOS: .5313
---
NC Base RPI: .6485
NC RPI Bonuses: .0130 (8 wins qualifying for NC RPI bonus)
---
NC Adjusted RPI: .6615 (NC Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Without the RPI bonuses, the Cajuns would have a NC Adjusted RPI rank of #11.

NC Adjusted RPI Rankings
#1 Alabama (.7018)
#2 Louisville (.6677)
#3 California (.6661)
#4 Hawaii (.6650)
#5 Louisiana (.6615)
#6 Arizona State (.6581)
#7 Tennessee (.6578)
#8 Florida (.6566)
#9 Texas (.6540)
#10 Oregon (.6498)

Brian

[ulforlife]

So we need all the teams we've played to keep winning. That's kind of bogus to give 50% to OWP, all that does is help the power conferences. In fact, LSU will continue to move up even if they lose just because they are set to play Florida, Georgia, Alabama, etc. we need them to get swept once or twice or they could be looking to host too

[GoneGolfin]

So we need all the teams we've played to keep winning. That's kind of bogus to give 50% to OWP, all that does is help the power conferences. In fact, LSU will continue to move up even if they lose just because they are set to play Florida, Georgia, Alabama, etc. we need them to get swept once or twice or they could be looking to host too

This gets compounded by the fact that RPI bonuses are awarded for all wins vs. the Base RPI Top 50 in Softball ... not just non-conference games ... and not just road games ... unlike baseball. The bonuses are also larger than that of baseball.

LSU will be receiving a huge boost to their OWP, simply for showing up at the stadium. And if they happen to snag an occasional win, a nice fat RPI bonus will likely be in order.

At NCAA Softball selection time last season, Georgia led the country with 24 RPI bonus games to their credit. It took their Base RPI of .6539 to an Adjusted RPI of .7059 (increase of .0520) and an Adjusted RPI Rank of #2.

The Cajuns? They had 3 RPI bonus games to their credit and suffered a single RPI penalty game, good for a paltry net of .0052 (an order of magnitude less than that of Georgia).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Based on the data that I have, I was able to reverse engineer the other components of the Cajuns' RPI. We now know the OOWP and the RPI bonuses.

WP: .9677
OWP: .5405
OOWP: .5505
SOS: .5438
---
Base RPI: .6498 (Base RPI Rank: #7)
RPI Bonuses: .0156 (10 wins qualifying for RPI bonus)
---
Adjusted RPI: .6654 (Adjusted RPI Rank: #7)

Based on results through Tuesday 3/27 ...

- OWP has moved from .5405 to .5436
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5286

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6514
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6670

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6504
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6634

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Based on results through Tuesday 3/27 ...

- OWP has moved from .5405 to .5436
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5286

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6514
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6670

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6504
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6634

Brian

Cajuns' OWP (through results date) ...
3/25 .5405
3/27 .5436
3/28 .5407
3/30 .5430

Through Friday (3/30) we have ...

- This week OWP has moved from .5405 to .5430
- NC OWP has moved from .5248 to .5311

If you assumed that the OOWP of .5505 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- Base RPI moves from .6498 to .6511
- Adjusted RPI moves from .6654 to .6667

If you assumed that the NC OOWP of .5444 remains constant (which it will not, but is still a decent estimate) ...

- NC Base RPI moves from .6485 to .6516
- NC Adjusted RPI moves from .6615 to .6646

Brian

[CajunFan89]

too... much... math..... brain..... going.... to.... explode