2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[biged05]

King,

The river crest is coming soon but its going to be an extended crest. We initially said about 3 days to get to Morgan city and I think it was based on what happened in '73. The biggest difference though is we had to open all the bays at one time then. This time we did a slow opening to let the wild life get out the way. As of yesterday morning the front edge of the water was just below hwy 190. It's taking a lot longer to get to Morgan city, but I think it will still get to 11' or somewhere close to that, and it will probably stay there for a while.

igeaux.mobi

[CajunRed]

BigEd...has the predicted crest for Butte La Rose been lowered due to more ground absorption of water than expected. I believe the latest estimation was 27 feet.

Again...thanks for putting up with us and providing ongoing updates.

Red

igeaux.mobi

[biged05]

The latest prediction still stands at 27'. It's taking longer due to the dry ground but once it's saturated it will come up. The water will be here long enough to get to wherever it would have of the weather wasn't so dry

igeaux.mobi

[HelmutVII]

A constant, fairly strong north wind the first part of this week didn't hurt either. But the wind is turning around to the south so that will plug things up a little.

They must be pumping the hell out of Teche-Vermilion too. The Vermilion is pretty high considering how dry its been.

[chauncey]

I live on Bayou Teche in Breaux Bridge. The water is very low!

[Bandwagon King]

_ The latest prediction still stands at 27'. It's taking longer due to the dry ground but once it's saturated it will come up. The water will be here long enough to get to wherever it would have of the weather wasn't so dry

igeaux.mobi _

I have been studying the river gauge levels & the charts up into Missourri & I can tell you the river has definitely crested & is going down at break neck speed ( for a river that is) everywhere above Vicksburg & appears to be peeking or very nearly peeking in Vicksburg & Natchez. It is actually going down in Knox Landing & totally under control in Baton rouge. Unless they opened more bays overnight, I don't think they'll be opening any more.

The river is taking forever to rise where the spillway widens out & Morgan Ciity & Calumet are getting rid of the water almost as fast or faster it seems than it is getting fed to them. To me this means unless there is a major weather event over the next five days, this thing will never see 25' In Butte Larose & most likely won't get up above the road on Hwy. 90. I don't see lake Palour getting out of it's banks even.

Please use the disclaimers that I have been studying these charts for a grand total of 6 days of my life, but I look at charts almost everyday & the charts I'm seeing are telling me that unless there is more water created than the lower Atchafalaya can get rid of for a much longer time frame than this, the river doesn't look to be going above flood stage here from what I can see. I want to thank the core for doing a wonderful job managing this water & God for giving us some of the most beautiful helpful weather I can recall in my life.

Oh BTW, while we are having a southerly wind picking back up, the moon just filled two nights ago & is going down in phase. This should keep tidal levels down & thereby continue to allow the river to flow more freely below the levees & with June approaching the winds are pretty sure to calm down.

[wcd35]

So basically you're saying the COE isnt looking at all the river levels? Because it seems you are saying that Big Ed is wrong and I'm trying to think of why he would be wrong.

Of course, it would be better if you are right.

[biged05]

King,

The river up there us cresting and maybe coming down. I don't keep up with those as much b/c I just don't have the time, but the timeline seems right. As far as where it affects us, red river landing us still rising., not by much right now, but rising none the less.

The water is taking longer to get through the spillway, but once it does I believe it will cause water to stack up in the lower river. Saying it won't go above 25 may be a stretch, but I hope you're right. At the same time I'm not counting on it. There are a lot of predictions out there and they keep changing. Also, everywhere I've seen the water from morganza, the first day it's only a few inches and you can actually see the water creeping, but over the next two days it jumps anywhere from 5 to 10 feet. Yes once it gets past butte la rose it will be a much bigger area, but that area is already rising due to water from the atch. River and the morganza water will add to it. And the water flowing through the river at Morgan city and calumet is not keeping up b/c I'm watching water rise and flow north. And winds and tides do play a big role in Gage readings down there so watch that carefully it can mislead you


igeaux.mobi

[Bandwagon King]

_ So basically you're saying the COE isnt looking at all the river levels? Because it seems you are saying that Big Ed is wrong and I'm trying to think of why he would be wrong.

Of course, it would be better if you are right. _

I am not saying Big Ed is wrong. What I am saying is in engineering data trumps everything else & the data says that the worst of this thing is happening right now in Natchez & Vicksburg & up river form there the levels have gone down as much as a foot.

The levels have gone down or leveled off below the flood gates to the point if no more pressure is applied than is being applied right now, they won't have to open another flood gate. The levels in Morgan City, Calumet, & Butte Larose are telling me the lower river is handling the influx of extra water just fine.

This is where people need to remember dates. First the Corps said the peak probably wouldn't be until May 30. Then they said it would be May 28th. Then May 24th, while simultaneously pushing back the opening of the flood gates until last Saturday. I think they know we're coming out of the woods, but won't make the call official until they know for sure there is no weather event coming in the next 5 days to screw it up. I can say from what I'm reading & understanding to be flood levels, that this will end up being the biggest non event in a while. People need to realize that the biggest part of science is screwing up & then learning from that & applying what you learned the next time around. The corps has done that since 73' & it is paying off in spades.

People shoudn't get mad at them for doing their job so well that they used all the tools in the tool box to make this thing a non event. It is really nice to see government at work & not totally FUBARing something.

[biged05]

King,

First thanks for the compliment! We don't get those often. I think one thing you are not realizing when you say that more gates may not have to be opened is the natural crest is between natchez and red river landing. The levels below morganza show cresting now b/c we forced them to opening morganza, but the max pressure is still on them and will be. We will have to open more gates until the natural crest has passed morganza. Hope that helps

igeaux.mobi