2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[wcd35]

So basically you're saying the COE isnt looking at all the river levels? Because it seems you are saying that Big Ed is wrong and I'm trying to think of why he would be wrong.

Of course, it would be better if you are right.

[biged05]

King,

The river up there us cresting and maybe coming down. I don't keep up with those as much b/c I just don't have the time, but the timeline seems right. As far as where it affects us, red river landing us still rising., not by much right now, but rising none the less.

The water is taking longer to get through the spillway, but once it does I believe it will cause water to stack up in the lower river. Saying it won't go above 25 may be a stretch, but I hope you're right. At the same time I'm not counting on it. There are a lot of predictions out there and they keep changing. Also, everywhere I've seen the water from morganza, the first day it's only a few inches and you can actually see the water creeping, but over the next two days it jumps anywhere from 5 to 10 feet. Yes once it gets past butte la rose it will be a much bigger area, but that area is already rising due to water from the atch. River and the morganza water will add to it. And the water flowing through the river at Morgan city and calumet is not keeping up b/c I'm watching water rise and flow north. And winds and tides do play a big role in Gage readings down there so watch that carefully it can mislead you


igeaux.mobi

[Bandwagon King]

_ So basically you're saying the COE isnt looking at all the river levels? Because it seems you are saying that Big Ed is wrong and I'm trying to think of why he would be wrong.

Of course, it would be better if you are right. _

I am not saying Big Ed is wrong. What I am saying is in engineering data trumps everything else & the data says that the worst of this thing is happening right now in Natchez & Vicksburg & up river form there the levels have gone down as much as a foot.

The levels have gone down or leveled off below the flood gates to the point if no more pressure is applied than is being applied right now, they won't have to open another flood gate. The levels in Morgan City, Calumet, & Butte Larose are telling me the lower river is handling the influx of extra water just fine.

This is where people need to remember dates. First the Corps said the peak probably wouldn't be until May 30. Then they said it would be May 28th. Then May 24th, while simultaneously pushing back the opening of the flood gates until last Saturday. I think they know we're coming out of the woods, but won't make the call official until they know for sure there is no weather event coming in the next 5 days to screw it up. I can say from what I'm reading & understanding to be flood levels, that this will end up being the biggest non event in a while. People need to realize that the biggest part of science is screwing up & then learning from that & applying what you learned the next time around. The corps has done that since 73' & it is paying off in spades.

People shoudn't get mad at them for doing their job so well that they used all the tools in the tool box to make this thing a non event. It is really nice to see government at work & not totally FUBARing something.

[biged05]

King,

First thanks for the compliment! We don't get those often. I think one thing you are not realizing when you say that more gates may not have to be opened is the natural crest is between natchez and red river landing. The levels below morganza show cresting now b/c we forced them to opening morganza, but the max pressure is still on them and will be. We will have to open more gates until the natural crest has passed morganza. Hope that helps

igeaux.mobi

[Bandwagon King]

_ King,

First thanks for the compliment! We don't get those often. I think one thing you are not realizing when you say that more gates may not have to be opened is the natural crest is between natchez and red river landing. The levels below morganza show cresting now b/c we forced them to opening morganza, but the max pressure is still on them and will be. We will have to open more gates until the natural crest has passed morganza. Hope that helps

igeaux.mobi _

I understand that & appreciate your work indeed, but from what I'm reading from you is that you are saying the river is cresting or has crested in the Natchez right now. That is a full 5 days before the projected crest on 5/24/11. This can only be great news. I have folllowed these charts for days & the river at Natchez has been climbing like google stock. It's now laying flat & level for the past 18 hours. The river above is done giving it energy. The river below is taking the hits from the gates & I can plainly see every time they opened gates in Morganza looking at the Calumet & Morgan City charts.

It's just like changing choke sizes in a well & then watching the differential go up at the meter run then level out. It doesn't really matter any more because the river where they are draining into the Atchafalaya is open more than the feeder at Natchez can give them. I didn't just conjure this up in my head. Look at the charts closely & you will see it. They absolutely tell a story & I bet there are people in your offices looking at those same charts right now.

[jumboragncajun]

_ I am not saying Big Ed is wrong. What I am saying is in engineering data trumps everything else & the data says that the worst of this thing is happening right now in Natchez & Vicksburg & up river form there the levels have gone down as much as a foot.

So it went down a foot on a gauge elevation? That's your basis? What if there were gauges placed continuously between Natchez and BR....we would see WHERE that foot went to.
Allow me to give you some engineering data since apparently you are the expert.

NATCHEZ- Currently flowing at 2.2 million CFS. Projected Flow of 2.7 million cfs.

BATON ROUGE- AT 100% Capacity, can only discharge 1.5 MILLION CFS. It is currently at 98% capacity right now. Did reading your gauge levels 300 to 600 miles upstream, at any time during the past 6 days, say ANYTHING about cross-sectional area of the river, velocity or outlet restrictions? Prob not.

So now do you see the problem? The bulk of the discharge is not even here yet. BR flood stage is at 35' and Natchez is 48' with water lever currently at 62'....therefore, Isaac Newton tells us it is still coming no matter what the almighty Kyle says. ........and the River in Baton Rouge is at Full Capacity. It has to go somewhere....either into the governors mansion.....or the basin.

[biged05]

Well I hope you're absolutely correct. We'll have to wait and see.

I really would like to study those personally, but just don't have the time right now. I leave it up to the experts in new Orleans and go off what I'm told


igeaux.mobi

[NewsCopy]

As floodwaters from the Mississippi River spread across the Atchafalaya Basin, St. Martin Parish officials ordered mandatory evacuation of three areas, and St. Mary Parish officials are closing schools early. But even as evacuations were being ordered ...

The rest of the story

[NewsCopy]

AMELIA, La. – The oil-and-seafood hub of Morgan City has been hit by one disaster after another, from hurricanes to the BP oil spill. The latest trouble involves a deluge of water that was diverted from the Mississippi River and is headed toward the town ...

The rest of the story

[LsuULfan]

_ I've read rising tide...I'll add the other to my list to read

igeaux.mobi _

Big Ed: It was written by a Corp historian with apparently a lot of access to documents and historical information. Very balanced too-not overly pro or anti Corp. Think you will enjoy it. Thanks again for all of your information.

[Bandwagon King]

_ So it went down a foot on a gauge elevation? That's your basis? What if there were gauges placed continuously between Natchez and BR....we would see WHERE that foot went to.
Allow me to give you some engineering data since apparently you are the expert.

NATCHEZ- Currently flowing at 2.2 million CFS. Projected Flow of 2.7 million cfs.

BATON ROUGE- AT 100% Capacity, can only discharge 1.5 MILLION CFS. It is currently at 98% capacity right now. Did reading your gauge levels 300 to 600 miles upstream, at any time during the past 6 days, say ANYTHING about cross-sectional area of the river, velocity or outlet restrictions? Prob not.

So now do you see the problem? The bulk of the discharge is not even here yet. BR flood stage is at 35' and Natchez is 48' with water lever currently at 62'....therefore, Isaac Newton tells us it is still coming no matter what the almighty Kyle says. ........and the River in Baton Rouge is at Full Capacity. It has to go somewhere....either into the governors mansion.....or the basin. _

When you have gone & studied all the charts & understand that the river has already peaked at Natchez today & that the river at Knox landing just 15 miles to the south is going down in level as well as the Red River Landing & Baton Rouge without Morgan City or Butte Larose going up aprreciably then you don't understand that the Calumet Cut & the river at Morgan City are more than capable of handling the excess overflow of the existing structures as they now stand & they won't have to open any more gates to contain this thing at present & lower levels.

I am not the one running the thing, I am just giving an honest analyzation that at the present can't be argued against without having better data. Come back when you have better data than the river levels. Obviously this is the most important piece of information the Corps uses or they wouldn't spend so much time collecting it.

[CharlieK]

Is there anywhere that the corps is posting what flow rate the control structures (low sill and aux.) are flowing? Curious to see how they compare with the design flow rates. I know during 73 the low sill flowed at a higher rate than expected due to the increased head difference between the two rivers since the structures were designed.