2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[Bandwagon King]

_ You dont need a major storm to cause major problems with storm surge under current conditions.

You dont even need a C 1 hurricane.

A decent tropical storm could cause problems if we get one in the early part of July.
I think by late July everything will be close to normal concerning storm surge.


Dont think conditions exist for anything more then a Cat 2 for the next several years.
Hurricane severity runs in cycles. We have finally hit the quite cycle for about the next 30 years.
Cat 4 and 5 will be rare if ever for many years. _

Conditions as they exist now are not favorable for any type of anti cyclonic build up at least for the next couple of weeks. It's the T-storms up north that can delay the closing of the bays to the Morganza that we don't need right now.

[NewsCopy]

BUTTE LAROSE, La. – Louisiana residents in the path of diverted floodwaters from the bloated Mississippi River kept up an agonizing vigil as hundreds of homes outside levees are threatened by the slow-moving surge that swamped houses to the rooftops in ...

The rest of the story

[HelmutVII]

I went to Morganza yesterday and took a few photos. They would not let you stop or park anywhere near the spillway. Since I was by myself it was hard to get good photos. The only thing I can say is Auto focus with an audio signal is a good thing.

The Mississippi is on the right. Not much freeboard left to the road. Not a good idea to drive off the road here.




One of the open Morganza flood gates



Water entering the flood way through one of the gates. That stick that you can barely see in the middle of the photo is a gage pole. It is not the official gage that is published but is used by the operators to operate the spillway.

[Bandwagon King]

_ I went to Morganza yesterday and took a few photos. They would not let you stop or park anywhere near the spillway. Since I was by myself it was hard to get good photos. The only thing I can say is Auto focus with an audio signal is a good thing.

The Mississippi is on the right. Not much freeboard left to the road. Not a good idea to drive off the road here.




One of the open Morganza flood gates



Water entering the flood way through one of the gates. That stick that you can barely see in the middle of the photo is a gage pole. It is not the official gage that is published but is used by the operators to operate the spillway.

_

That actually looks like its down about a foot from where it was last Saturday. The only problem is the other side looks like its up about 6' from where it was last Saturday.

[Hammer58]

I was in New Orleans this past weekend and the river was something to see, especially along the riverwalk. The current going upriver was unbelievably swift. Tugs and barges going upriver were zipping by while those going downriver were struggling by. It was also weird looking down St. Ann St. from the balcony of the hotel and watching ships pass by on the horizon well above the awning of Cafe du Monde.

[Boomer]

_ I was in New Orleans this past weekend and the river was something to see, especially along the riverwalk. The current going upriver was unbelievably swift. Tugs and barges going upriver were zipping by while those going downriver were struggling by. It was also weird looking down St. Ann St. from the balcony of the hotel and watching ships pass by on the horizon well above the awning of Cafe du Monde. _

I was there myself watching my Brother's band---Cullen Landry and Midnight Streetcar---Only play old NO stuff---they had Mister Carnival Time Johnson singing some great old tunes on part of the gig!!!!! Man uptown NO is like another city for this 6th ward yat!!!!! Bayou Boogie Fest gets better each year--No charge just a suggested $5 donation!!!!!

[HelmutVII]

It looks like the water will be high for some time now. If you go here

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

you will see that all of the reporting stations up the Mississippi up to Brookport on the Ohio River are above flood stage. That's plenty of water and it still has to come down here. Since the river has crested at Morganza the "water dam" is no longer in the river. This will cause the slope of the water surface to increase allowing water to come down river faster. This could very well increase the flow rate at Red river landing requiring them to open more gates at Morganza. 1.5 Million cfs is the maximum flow downstream to Baton Rouge. If this happens look for more water in the Basin.

If you do go here

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

don't let the readings fool you. ONLY the readings from Red river landing downstream are referenced to NAVD88 MSL. I'm sure they have been adjusted to the latest GEOID by USCGS. The other stations have a "local zero" and have to be adjusted to get to an elevation that is referenced to a GEOID adjusted MSL.

If you want to dig further into that site click on "Mississippi River Hydrographs" in the upper left hand corner right below "Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Forecasts" It will tell you a great deal more about what is happening at each site. You can get more detailed information at each site by clicking "complete information about the Mississippi river at ........". If you go to a few of these you will see that there is lots of water still to come this way.

While we may have seen the highest water on the Mississippi we may not have seen maximum quantity of water. Remember Quantity = velocity x area. The area of flow may be getting smaller but the velocity could get greater causing an increase in quantity. We will have to wait and see. Maybe Biged might have more insight on that.

I spoke to my brother today and he went to Bonnet Carre yesterday. The floodway is moving like a rapids and it is still operating 330/350 at greater than 100% design project flood. It should stay that way for a good while longer.

[biged05]

Thanks helmut. I don't have anything to add right now. I was trying to catch up today in my sector b/c yesterday was my first day off in three weeks. Right now I really don't have much time to analyze, and I'm kinda still in awe about how this flood event is so unpredictable.

I'm not going to Make any predictions on how the next few weeks will go b/c of how it has gone thus far! I do know that we're all learning a great deal from this event!

igeaux.mobi

[Bandwagon King]

_ It looks like the water will be high for some time now. If you go here

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

you will see that all of the reporting stations up the Mississippi up to Brookport on the Ohio River are above flood stage. That's plenty of water and it still has to come down here. Since the river has crested at Morganza the "water dam" is no longer in the river. This will cause the slope of the water surface to increase allowing water to come down river faster. This could very well increase the flow rate at Red river landing requiring them to open more gates at Morganza. 1.5 Million cfs is the maximum flow downstream to Baton Rouge. If this happens look for more water in the Basin.

If you do go here

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmr...oriverforecast

don't let the readings fool you. ONLY the readings from Red river landing downstream are referenced to NAVD88 MSL. I'm sure they have been adjusted to the latest GEOID by USCGS. The other stations have a "local zero" and have to be adjusted to get to an elevation that is referenced to a GEOID adjusted MSL.

If you want to dig further into that site click on "Mississippi River Hydrographs" in the upper left hand corner right below "Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Forecasts" It will tell you a great deal more about what is happening at each site. You can get more detailed information at each site by clicking "complete information about the Mississippi river at ........". If you go to a few of these you will see that there is lots of water still to come this way.

While we may have seen the highest water on the Mississippi we may not have seen maximum quantity of water. Remember Quantity = velocity x area. The area of flow may be getting smaller but the velocity could get greater causing an increase in quantity. We will have to wait and see. Maybe Biged might have more insight on that.

I spoke to my brother today and he went to Bonnet Carre yesterday. The floodway is moving like a rapids and it is still operating 330/350 at greater than 100% design project flood. It should stay that way for a good while longer. _

I don't understand why you are in such a hurry to sink Butte Larose & drown most of the little furry mamals in the basin. The river has been turning a significant curve downward from Illinois all the way down consistently even with back water channeling in certain stages of the river. Vicksburg will be going down almost 1/2'/day starting tonight & so will Natchez. St. Francisville should be getting back into its banks in a few days & is starting to go down in a more significant curve as I write. The level in St. Francisville has gone down almost a foot since its Crest Late Wednesday evening. The level in Baton Rouge has gone down over half a foot now & is not a threat to get out of it's banks & is being managed quite nicely by the corps.

The water has already done its damage everyhwere upstream. What's the freaking hurry? If anything they should be able to pinch back on the water into the basin by this weekend anyway. Or did you not note the curves in the rise of the river that pushed it up at Baton Rouge to begin with.

[Bandwagon King]

_ I don't understand why you are in such a hurry to sink Butte Larose & drown most of the little furry mamals in the basin. The river has been turning a significant curve downward from Illinois all the way down consistently even with back water channeling in certain stages of the river. Vicksburg will be going down almost 1/2'/day starting tonight & so will Natchez. St. Francisville should be getting back into its banks in a few days & is starting to go down in a more significant curve as I write. The level in St. Francisville has gone down almost a foot since its Crest Late Wednesday evening. The level in Baton Rouge has gone down over half a foot now & is not a threat to get out of it's banks & is being managed quite nicely by the corps.

The water has already done its damage everyhwere upstream. What's the freaking hurry? If anything they should be able to pinch back on the water into the basin by this weekend anyway. Or did you not note the curves in the rise of the river that pushed it up at Baton Rouge to begin with. _

I'll go a step further & say if they wanted to push the envelope they could close a bay or maybe two right now & keep up with present levels in Baton Rouge. They won't do that because they want some breathing room. But the worm is turning. For every 3" the basin goes up from here on out the river should go down that much or more. It's all about the levees & the river being held in check in Baton Rouge. The Corps has control of this thing. Why hurt somebody else if you don't have to.

[Bandwagon King]

_ I'll go a step further & say if they wanted to push the envelope they could close a bay or maybe two right now & keep up with present levels in Baton Rouge. They won't do that because they want some breathing room. But the worm is turning. For every 3" the basin goes up from here on out the river will go down 6". It's all about the levees & the river being held in check in Baton Rouge. The Corps has control of this thing. Why hurt somebody else if you don't have to. _

Once again, I'm going to post the the link to the river gauges. I suggest anyone who wants to understand what is actually going on with the Mississippi & the Atchafalay & it's outlets to check these level charts. They tell a very specific story. The story is that the Corps has everything well in hand like it is now & should have the river where Mr. Helmut took his pictures to the top of the gates within the next 3-4 days if they are not there now. I have been to the gates also & they start about 2 -2 1/2' below the surface of the road. I also have pictures form when we went last Saturday when they opened the first gates & I can say that the water is down almost a foot from where it was when they first opened. The level actualy went up another quarter to a half a foot after the first two gates were open then crested. & is now where Helmut took his pics.
http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/Water...new/layout.cfm

[Boomer]

A little change of subject---BUT there is an expectation of huge flooding due to the incredible amount of snow now melting in Colorado----Will we get any of this or does the cont. divide send it only to the West????

[Bandwagon King]

_ A little change of subject---BUT there is an expectation of huge flooding due to the incredible amount of snow now melting in Colorado----Will we get any of this or does the cont. divide send it only to the West???? _

I believe the Colorado river travels through Texas to the GOM. There are a lot of thirsty rivers & dry country between us & them.

[biged05]

King,

Where are you seeing the one foot drop? At morganza the staff Gage was 59.2 the morning we opened and it was 59.3 yesterday morning. Or are you referring to somewhere in the river?


igeaux.mobi

[HelmutVII]

_ Once again, I'm going to post the the link to the river gauges. I suggest anyone who wants to understand what is actually going on with the Mississippi & the Atchafalay & it's outlets to check these level charts. They tell a very specific story. The story is that the Corps has everything well in hand like it is now & should have the river where Mr. Helmut took his pictures to the top of the gates within the next 3-4 days if they are not there now. I have been to the gates also & they start about 2 -2 1/2' below the surface of the road. I also have pictures form when we went last Saturday when they opened the first gates & I can say that the water is down almost a foot from where it was when they first opened. The level actualy went up another quarter to a half a foot after the first two gates were open then crested. & is now where Helmut took his pics.
http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/Water...new/layout.cfm _

Yes they do tell a story and that story is every station north of Baton Rouge is above flood stage. Some of them by over 10 to 12 feet. That water has to go someplace and that is the lower Mississippi or Atachafalaya basin. No matter what there is a significant amount of water YET to come down here. If that means using the Morganza floodway then so be it. After all, it is a floodway and people that have an interest there do so at their own risk. Also, any station upstream of Red river landing is referenced to a local zero NOT NAVD88.

Granted the river levels are going down and the trend is down in most areas (some predictions at a few stations in the upper reaches of the Mississippi have it going up a little bit in the next week or so). But, the whole thing is based on flow rates and if the flow increases at Red River landing go over 1.5 million cfs then they will have to open more gates. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it could.