Baseball week 11 rpi - May 14

[RaginDave]

Not sure what you are looking at, but you may be misinterpreting what is shown. I know that Warren does not use the home/road adjustment factor for the OWP and OOWP portions of the formula ... as this is not part of the RPI formula.

Brian

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball...team=Louisiana

[GoneGolfin]

https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball...team=Louisiana

It seems that what he has done is normalized the scale (RPI points) to something that is more understandable to the masses and easier to quickly read. As opposed to examining the actually RPI differentials between teams and publishing the actual RPI effect of the "impact games". It does give you a reasonable gauge of proximity, which is the intent.

No doubt that McNeese winning provides a very marginal benefit to the Cajuns strictly from an RPI perspective (vs. LSU winning). But I also agree that LSU remaining in the RPI Top 10 is more beneficial for the Cajuns.

Brian

[MountainDew]

It seems that what he has done is normalized the scale (RPI points) to something that is more understandable to the masses and easier to quickly read. As opposed to examining the actually RPI differentials between teams and publishing the actual RPI effect of the "impact games". It does give you a reasonable gauge of proximity, which is the intent.

No doubt that McNeese winning provides a very marginal benefit to the Cajuns strictly from an RPI perspective (vs. LSU winning). But I also agree that LSU remaining in the RPI Top 10 is more beneficial for the Cajuns.

Brian

I would think a McNeese win would be more beneficial in the long run right? It may make LSU fall a bit, but I imagine LSU will make that up in their final series and going into the SEC tourney.

Edit: I don't know nearly enough about RPI pts to actually make a good point.

[JayWalker]

IF we win the series this weekend (I think even thinking of a sweep is a stretch) and then get to Sunday, it will mean we pick up four more Q1 wins (two this weekend and two in the tournament. I don't see anyone else beating USM or CCU in tournament games). That gets us in the discussion, for sure.

But one game at a time starting this Thursday.

[GoneGolfin]

according to warrennolan.com, the expectation is that we are going to lose all three games and he has our predicted RPI at 46. He has us losing 3 fairly close games, in fact yesterday it showed us winning 1 of them.

So if he is accurate, if we could pull 2 of the 3 games, I think our RPI would be somewhere in the upper 30's/low 40's possibly even higher obviously allot depends on what happens with the teams in front of us.

I wouldn't have said this 2 weeks ago, but sweeping Texas State and possibly sweeping USM would probably lock us into the tournament, specifically if we can make a mini run in the tournament, meaning winning a couple of games and getting to the semifinals or beyond.

This is where Warren Nolan's site gets into a bit of trouble ... predicting wins and predicted RPI. The Cajuns are not moving up to #46 if they get swept this weekend. His algorithm must be doing something crazy with predicted wins for Cajun opponents ... as well as everyone in front of us lose their _____ off ... for something like that to happen.

Here is the reality ...
If the Cajuns go 0-3 vs. USM this weekend, all other things being equal, their RPI would fall from .5434 to .5424. A very minimal drop for getting swept ... but a drop nonetheless. This would result in the Cajuns' RPI ranking falling to #68 in the current RPI rankings. Obviously where they fit in the rankings will depend on how other teams fare, but this is a good average indicator.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I would think a McNeese win would be more beneficial in the long run right? It may make LSU fall a bit, but I imagine LSU will make that up in their final series and going into the SEC tourney.

Edit: I don't know nearly enough about RPI pts to actually make a good point.

Again, the difference is extremely small. Not enough to be concerned about. Better would be to ensure that LSU stays in the RPI Top 10.

Brian

[ZoomZoom]

I wouldn’t get too excited. USM’s Scott Berry announced his retirement. Extra reason for USM to play in his last home regular season series.

[RaginDave]

Marshall vs Morehead was canceled tonight.

[ZoomZoom]

Marshall vs Morehead was canceled tonight.

220 v 132 RPI OOC game last week of the season pretty meaningless.

[GoneGolfin]

Can anyone estimate what approximate affect winning 0, 1, 2, and 3 games this weekend would have on our standing?

As I presented earlier in this thread, if the Cajuns were swept by USM this weekend, all other things being equal, their RPI would fall from .5434 to .5424. This would result in the Cajuns' RPI ranking falling to #68 in the current RPI rankings. This has since changed slightly in the past few hours due to games being played today. The Cajuns currently have an RPI Ranking of #68.

Updated numbers ...

Cajuns win 0/3
RPI .54240
RPI Ranking #70 (using current RPI Rankings)

Cajuns win 1/3 ...
RPI .54689
RPI Ranking #62 (using current RPI Rankings)

Cajuns win 2/3 ...
RPI .55130
RPI Ranking: #59

Cajuns win 3/3
RPI .55560
RPI Ranking: #55 (tied with FGCU)

Again, this is all things being equal ... we are measuring the impact the USM series will have on the Cajuns' RPI. Obviously where they fit in the rankings when the weekend is over will depend on how other teams fare around them ... as well as how Cajun opponents fare.

Brian