Now, you know there is not a definite number that guarantees you are in. Much depends on the play of others ... including conference tournament results. But I would say that playing .500 ball the rest of the way likely would have the Cajuns in the tournament. I do think that winning a conference tournament game should be in the mix. But this is not necessarily a requirement if the Cajuns finish strong in the regular season.
Securing the #2 spot in the Sun Belt (not just conference finish, but #2 in the NCAA selection pecking order) is what the Cajuns have accomplished this past weekend. This is extremely important. The Cajuns have a considerably better RPI than Middle Tennessee, Florida International, and South Alabama (the only possible contenders for the #2 spot in the Sun Belt NCAA selection pecking order). They also have a 1 game lead (with tiebreaker) over Middle and two game leads over USA and FIU, heading into the final weekend. Meanwhile, the Cajuns get ULM while Middle plays a talented and desperate WKU squad while FIU gets FAU. Sweeps by Middle or FIU are unlikely.
... and, while nobody is talking about this ... if the Cajuns can pick up just one game on FAU next weekend, they would be Sun Belt co-champs. Regardless of the conference tournament seeding, this is a regular season championship.
Brian