I agree. I have agreed with the OOC "2-2" philosophy... balancing the money necessity with providing the coach a chance. Having seen these debates on money games versus a schedule that supposedly "guaranteed" a 7 plus winning season... I have given some thought to a variation on the scheduling arrangement.
First, we have to have the money games (so I don't really want to regress to that argument). It would be great if we scheduled lower tier BCS programs, but I don't think they pay as well... and if it were easy enough and financially rewarding enough to do, we'd be doing it.
One consideration on the OOC scheduling philosophy is the following: Consider scheduling alternating seasons with a 1-3 and 3-1 OOC "winnability factor". You still get the number of money games in, but you have a greater chance of the elusive 7 to 8 win season, every other year. Albeit, you really stick yourself with an every other year rough OOC schedule, but I think materializing a bowl game in there, and the consequential energized fanbase... you might even begin to bend the 3-1 "winnability factor" into a 2-2 in those succeeding years. Just a consideration.
I do agree with you, Jay, that last year we were poised for a 7 plus win season and we simply blew it (FIU being the worst culprit game in the bunch). I was pleasantly surprised that we beat ASU and ULM (by a hair) down the stretch... but the staff blew it at FIU. That had made up my mind regarding this staff... and I believe you have to go with your gut.
I would venture that the OSU game, given decent weather, will be a huge crowd. We are also no worse off facing the conference this year than last... perhaps even better. I don't look at the SBC home and away as much of a factor. UL doesn't add the 12th man in a big way... yet... and I don't think any of our opponents do either.
You are right... tougher than last year in OOC by 1.5 games... definitely not impossible to get 7... but more likely 5. In reality, with the SBC, I think it has less to do with the scheduling than it does whether our balance of player talent materializes at the required positions, our staff uses every second on the clock, and our staff becomes blessed with superior second half coaching abilities.