4/21 softball rpi

[ulforlife]

If the season ended today, I think you are probably looking at the following ...

National Seed (locks)
#2 Alabama
#1 Florida
#5 Oregon
#4 UCLA

National Seed (potentials ... in order) ... 4 spots for the following 6
#3 Georgia
#10 Arizona State
#6 Louisiana/#7 Michigan/#8 Florida State
#12 Tennessee

The final four of Louisiana/Michigan/Florida State/Tennessee are very close. Louisiana has the highest RPI ... but has the worst record vs. the RPI Top 50 (8-7) among the group (of four). They are second in the group vs. RPI Top 25 (6-4). This is why the games vs. Baylor and any upcoming games vs. South Alabama in the conference tournament are so important. Louisiana and Michigan would be conference champions of the #4 and #5 RPI conferences respectively. Tennessee is tied for 2nd (Tennessee/Missouri/Kentucky) in the #1 SEC. Florida and Georgia follow, one game back.

It would be nice if WKU could rally and move into the RPI Top 50 (currently #69). South Alabama needs to stay in the RPI Top 25 (currently #19).

Brian

Yea I was looking at this too and to me they would put Michigan ahead of us and possibly even FSU. I would say #7 or 8 seed

[ulforlife]

How can they justify ANY ranking for a 20 loss team?

They play in the beloved SEC

[CajunEXPRESS]

We lost to Michigan this year seems fair on a close call.

[GoneGolfin]

We lost to Michigan this year seems fair on a close call.

We split with Michigan.

Brian

[lcitsh]

If the season ended today, I think you are probably looking at the following ...

National Seed (locks)
#2 Alabama
#1 Florida
#5 Oregon
#4 UCLA

National Seed (potentials ... in order) ... 4 spots for the following 6
#3 Georgia
#10 Arizona State
#6 Louisiana/#7 Michigan/#8 Florida State
#12 Tennessee

The final four of Louisiana/Michigan/Florida State/Tennessee are very close. Louisiana has the highest RPI ... but has the worst record vs. the RPI Top 50 (8-7) among the group (of four). They are second in the group vs. RPI Top 25 (6-4). This is why the games vs. Baylor and any upcoming games vs. South Alabama in the conference tournament are so important. Louisiana and Michigan would be conference champions of the #4 and #5 RPI conferences respectively. Tennessee is tied for 2nd (Tennessee/Missouri/Kentucky) in the #1 SEC. Florida and Georgia follow, one game back.

It would be nice if WKU could rally and move into the RPI Top 50 (currently #69). South Alabama needs to stay in the RPI Top 25 (currently #19).

Brian

Yeah, the more I examine these teams, the more I have to believe the Cajuns are fighting an uphill battle, even at the ranking and with the scores we have and may have. And, to me, most of it has to do with perception. We are surrounded by power conference teams who have always gotten the benefit of the doubt over us, no matter what we have done against them during the course of the season. Michigan and Florida State are on pace to be the champions of the Big Ten and the ACC. Those conferences will have 4 representatives each in the NCAA tournament, the Sun Belt will have 2. Even though the rpi says that our conference is stronger than theirs this season, I don't expect the committee to see it that way.

Arizona State is the team that galls me the most in this scenario. I hate the fact that they play all but 5 of their non-conference games at home and get rewarded for it at the end of the season. They do have a tough road ahead of them to finish the season, as they go to Eugene to play the Ducks and host UCLA to close it out. I'm not sure what it would take to knock them out of contention, so I'll just hope that they lose at least one game to Southern Mississippi this weekend and get swept in their last two series. I think our resume matches up well enough with Arizona that we could be favorably considered over them.

It's going to be hard to believe that the SEC and PAC 12 won't get 3 teams each as national seeds. I just hope our competition fails miserably so we can host twice.

[ulforlife]

Yeah, the more I examine these teams, the more I have to believe the Cajuns are fighting an uphill battle, even at the ranking and with the scores we have and may have. And, to me, most of it has to do with perception. We are surrounded by power conference teams who have always gotten the benefit of the doubt over us, no matter what we have done against them during the course of the season. Michigan and Florida State are on pace to be the champions of the Big Ten and the ACC. Those conferences will have 4 representatives each in the NCAA tournament, the Sun Belt will have 2. Even though the rpi says that our conference is stronger than theirs this season, I don't expect the committee to see it that way.

Arizona State is the team that galls me the most in this scenario. I hate the fact that they play all but 5 of their non-conference games at home and get rewarded for it at the end of the season. They do have a tough road ahead of them to finish the season, as they go to Eugene to play the Ducks and host UCLA to close it out. I'm not sure what it would take to knock them out of contention, so I'll just hope that they lose at least one game to Southern Mississippi this weekend and get swept in their last two series. I think our resume matches up well enough with Arizona that we could be favorably considered over them.

It's going to be hard to believe that the SEC and PAC 12 won't get 3 teams each as national seeds. I just hope our competition fails miserably so we can host twice.

I agree with everything you said but I get the feeling that if Oregon does what they have to do (sweep or win 2 of 3) and if UCLA can win 1 or 2 against ASU that the PAC 12 will only have 2 national seeds this year. It wouldn't surprise me, but I have to imagine ASU doesn't get a national seed with 6-7 losses in conference play. Fingers crossed.

FSU winning the ACC would certainly put us looking for the #8 seed

[GoneGolfin]

I agree with everything you said but I get the feeling that if Oregon does what they have to do (sweep or win 2 of 3) and if UCLA can win 1 or 2 against ASU that the PAC 12 will only have 2 national seeds this year. It wouldn't surprise me, but I have to imagine ASU doesn't get a national seed with 6-7 losses in conference play. Fingers crossed.

FSU winning the ACC would certainly put us looking for the #8 seed

Not necessarily. The ACC is not one of the top conferences (#6). The Sun Belt is #4.

If the Cajuns can close the gap on record vs. RPI Top 25 and 50 vs. these teams, we have a real shot.

(Record vs. RPI 25, 50)
#6 Louisiana -> 8-4, 10-7 ... 1st place Sun Belt (#4 Conf. RPI) (Records are after DH sweep of Baylor)
#7 Michigan -> 6-6, 12-7 ... 1st place Big Ten (#5 Conf. RPI)
#8 Florida State -> 4-3, 11-5 ... 1st place ACC (#6 Conf. RPI)
#10 Arizona State -> 6-3, 9-4 ... 3rd place Pac-12 (#2 Conf. RPI)
#12 Tennessee -> 7-3, 14-5 ... 3-way tie for 2nd in SEC (#1 Conf. RPI)

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Arizona State is the team that galls me the most in this scenario. I hate the fact that they play all but 5 of their non-conference games at home and get rewarded for it at the end of the season.

I am with you ... especially since this exact thing was discussed with the softball committee ... when Coach Mike surfaced the proposal to have Softball RPI account for home/road. They decided to wait and "study it". Meanwhile ...

Brian

[jllanclos]

I am with you ... especially since this exact thing was discussed with the softball committee ... when Coach Mike surfaced the proposal to have Softball RPI account for home/road. They decided to wait and "study it". Meanwhile ...

Brian

No matter what the numbers say, I will be as shocked as I've ever been following sports if the Cajuns softball team gets a national seed.

The #4 team in the country missed a national seed BY A MILE. I'll believe it when I see it. We won't even be in the conversation. Attach our resume to an LSU logo by accident, and we might have a shot. Otherwise, forget it and get ready to hit the road for the Super Regional.

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice? Nope.

[GoneGolfin]

No matter what the numbers say, I will be as shocked as I've ever been following sports if the Cajuns softball team gets a national seed.

The #4 team in the country missed a national seed BY A MILE. I'll believe it when I see it. We won't even be in the conversation. Attach our resume to an LSU logo by accident, and we might have a shot. Otherwise, forget it and get ready to hit the road for the Super Regional.

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice? Nope.

I am not saying the Cajuns will be a national seed. More work to be done.

However, what do you mean by the #4 team in the nation missing a national seed by a mile? If you are referring to the Cajuns in 2012, they had the #12 RPI in the country. Don't look at the polls. The selection committee goes by RPI even more than in baseball. In recent years, the national seeds have been exactly the Top 8 in RPI.

Brian