Baseball Rankings - 3/3

[wcd35]

Final poll updated.

[wcd35]

Attendance up to #10

http://www.sportswriters.net/ncbwa/n...ance140303.PDF

[MiamiCajun32]

I was being sarcastic, but yes 3 + 3 tends to equal 6.

[MiamiCajun32]

I do not think anyone has these calculations down perfectly yet. Warren has one set of numbers, Boyd has another, and mine differ slightly from both of them. I did peek under the covers of Warren's data (not possible with Boyd) and I think he may be calculating SOS incorrectly ... in particular it may be OWP (but also possibly OOWP). I sent him a note to discuss ... will see if he responds.

In any event, for those interested in the details as to how OWP is calculated for a given team ...

- Take the Div. I W/L record for each of your opponents and remove the results of your games against that team.
- Calculate the above winning percentage for each opponent to four decimals of precision.
- Weight that winning percentage by the number of games played against each respective opponent.

DO NOT sum the weighted W/L records of each of your opponents (non-Cajun games) and then calculate the percentage on that summed W/L record. This will yield a different result. This *seems* to be what Warren Nolan is doing.

Example:
Southern Mississippi is 6-6 overall. However, they are 6-3 in games not involving the Cajuns. Hence, for OWP purposes we use .6667 * 3 (weighted by three games played).

- Then take all of the calculated weighted percentages and add them. Divide that sum by the total number of games played. You then have your OWP.

Note: OWP calculations do not use the home/road weightings that WP calculations use.

Example using Cajun opponents ...

Eastern Illinois (2-10) ... 1-7 in non-Cajun games = .1250 * 4 (games) = .5000
Northwestern State (6-4) ... 6-3 in non-Cajun games = .6667 * 1 (game) = .6667
Southern Mississippi (6-6) ... 6-3 in non-Cajun games = .6667 * 3 (games) = 2.0000
LSU (9-2) ... 9-1 in non-Cajun games = .9000 * 1 (game) = .9000
Alabama (5-5) ... 4-3 in non-Cajun games = .5714 * 3 (games) = 1.7143
--
Total: 5.781/12 games = .4817 (note the above uses rounded figures to four decimal places)

This is obviously different than the summed 49-50 record (.4949) ... and in some cases, the difference can be much more significant.

Thus we have the following RPI calculation for UL ...

WP = .7937
OWP = .4817
OOWP = .6137
SOS = .5257
--
RPI = .5927

On Warren's site, if you look at the SOS page, he calculates an opponents winning percentage of .4949 (49-50) by summing the weighted W/L record of each Cajun opponent and calculating the winning percentage. His SOS comes to .5249. His OOWP calculation is thus .5849.

Brian

The best RPI formula would be one that Brian Gone Golfin were to create, in my opinion :-)

[GoneGolfin]

It's pretty simple. Basically, its worthless until enough teams play each other.

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

Where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage.

"RPI formula values each road victory as 1.3 instead of 1.0. Each home win will be valued at 0.7 instead of 1.0. Conversely, each home loss will count 1.3 against a team's RPI and each road loss will count 0.7 against a team's RPI. Neutral-site games will retain the same value of 1.0."

Just as an addendum to this ...

While the NCAA obviated the existing bonus/penalty structure with the advent of the 2013 RPI (weighting home/road), there is a penalty system that does exist ... that is not accounted for in either Boyd's or Warren's calcs. While results against non-D1 opponents are not included in the Base RPI calculations ... a loss to a non-D1 school will result in a penalty of .0022. Forty Eight (48) such penalties were levied in 2013 for non-D1 losses by D1 teams. A few were from some of the bigger names (Florida Gulf Coast, Texas Tech, Villanova, Northwestern, McNeese State). The SWAC had half of them (24).

Brian

[campo118]

I thought SWAC was D-1? Isn't that the conference Southern plays in? I can remember being in regionals with them in the past and I thought only D-1 teams were in the NCAA tournament?

[campo118]

Edit: read that wrong... I am assuming the SWAC lost half of the 48 games to other divisions?

[GoneGolfin]

Edit: read that wrong... I am assuming the SWAC lost half of the 48 games to other divisions?

Correct.

Brian

[jumboragncajun]

I do not think anyone has these calculations down perfectly yet. Warren has one set of numbers, Boyd has another, and mine differ slightly from both of them. I did peek under the covers of Warren's data (not possible with Boyd) and I think he may be calculating SOS incorrectly ... in particular it may be OWP (but also possibly OOWP). I sent him a note to discuss ... will see if he responds.

In any event, for those interested in the details as to how OWP is calculated for a given team ...

- Take the Div. I W/L record for each of your opponents and remove the results of your games against that team.
- Calculate the above winning percentage for each opponent to four decimals of precision.
- Weight that winning percentage by the number of games played against each respective opponent.

DO NOT sum the weighted W/L records of each of your opponents (non-Cajun games) and then calculate the percentage on that summed W/L record. This will yield a different result. This *seems* to be what Warren Nolan is doing.

Example:
Southern Mississippi is 6-6 overall. However, they are 6-3 in games not involving the Cajuns. Hence, for OWP purposes we use .6667 * 3 (weighted by three games played).

- Then take all of the calculated weighted percentages and add them. Divide that sum by the total number of games played. You then have your OWP.

Note: OWP calculations do not use the home/road weightings that WP calculations use.

Example using Cajun opponents ...

Eastern Illinois (2-10) ... 1-7 in non-Cajun games = .1250 * 4 (games) = .5000
Northwestern State (6-4) ... 6-3 in non-Cajun games = .6667 * 1 (game) = .6667
Southern Mississippi (6-6) ... 6-3 in non-Cajun games = .6667 * 3 (games) = 2.0000
LSU (9-2) ... 9-1 in non-Cajun games = .9000 * 1 (game) = .9000
Alabama (5-5) ... 4-3 in non-Cajun games = .5714 * 3 (games) = 1.7143
--
Total: 5.781/12 games = .4817 (note the above uses rounded figures to four decimal places)

This is obviously different than the summed 49-50 record (.4949) ... and in some cases, the difference can be much more significant.

Thus we have the following RPI calculation for UL ...

WP = .7937
OWP = .4817
OOWP = .6137
SOS = .5257
--
RPI = .5927

On Warren's site, if you look at the SOS page, he calculates an opponents winning percentage of .4949 (49-50) by summing the weighted W/L record of each Cajun opponent and calculating the winning percentage. His SOS comes to .5249. His OOWP calculation is thus .5849.

Brian

Ok ya'll: Sticky this thread, print out this post, tape it to your computer, make a spreadsheet...etc.. If it's March 3, and we are this deep in the numbers, I predict no less than 100 times GoneGolfin will be asked how to calculate this, or how x game or y game effected our rpi.

Thanks Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I ran my calculations tonight and was still coming up with something slightly different than Warren Nolan. After closer examination ...

- WN has the 3/14 result from Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Grambling State reversed. Grambling State lost that game 8-5. Thus Grambling State should have a record of 6-17, not 7-16. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 7-13 vs. 6-14.

- WN is missing two games ... the 3/18 DH pitting SIU-Edwardsville vs. Illinois State. Illinois State won both of those games. Thus SIU-Edwardsville is 9-12, not 9-10. Illinois State is 15-6, not 13-6.

If I implement the above mistakes in my own calculations, my numbers match Warren Nolan's for UL.

Thus, we have the following correct RPI calculation for Louisiana ...

WP = .8917
OWP = .4871
OOWP = .5397
SOS = .5046
--
RPI = .6014

Warren Nolan currently has ...
SOS = .5052
RPI = .6019

The RPI ranking is unchanged at #10 because 9 and 11 are rather separated from #10.

Brian

I do not think anyone has these calculations down perfectly yet. Warren has one set of numbers, Boyd has another, and mine differ slightly from both of them. I did peek under the covers of Warren's data (not possible with Boyd) and I think he may be calculating SOS incorrectly ... in particular it may be OWP (but also possibly OOWP). I sent him a note to discuss ... will see if he responds.

In any event, for those interested in the details as to how OWP is calculated for a given team ...

- Take the Div. I W/L record for each of your opponents and remove the results of your games against that team.
- Calculate the above winning percentage for each opponent to four decimals of precision.
- Weight that winning percentage by the number of games played against each respective opponent.

DO NOT sum the weighted W/L records of each of your opponents (non-Cajun games) and then calculate the percentage on that summed W/L record. This will yield a different result. This *seems* to be what Warren Nolan is doing.

Example:
Southern Mississippi is 6-6 overall. However, they are 6-3 in games not involving the Cajuns. Hence, for OWP purposes we use .6667 * 3 (weighted by three games played).

- Then take all of the calculated weighted percentages and add them. Divide that sum by the total number of games played. You then have your OWP.

Note: OWP calculations do not use the home/road weightings that WP calculations use.

Example using Cajun opponents ...

Eastern Illinois (2-10) ... 1-7 in non-Cajun games = .1250 * 4 (games) = .5000
Northwestern State (6-4) ... 6-3 in non-Cajun games = .6667 * 1 (game) = .6667
Southern Mississippi (6-6) ... 6-3 in non-Cajun games = .6667 * 3 (games) = 2.0000
LSU (9-2) ... 9-1 in non-Cajun games = .9000 * 1 (game) = .9000
Alabama (5-5) ... 4-3 in non-Cajun games = .5714 * 3 (games) = 1.7143
--
Total: 5.781/12 games = .4817 (note the above uses rounded figures to four decimal places)

This is obviously different than the summed 49-50 record (.4949) ... and in some cases, the difference can be much more significant.

Thus we have the following RPI calculation for UL ...

WP = .7937
OWP = .4817
OOWP = .6137
SOS = .5257
--
RPI = .5927

On Warren's site, if you look at the SOS page, he calculates an opponents winning percentage of .4949 (49-50) by summing the weighted W/L record of each Cajun opponent and calculating the winning percentage. His SOS comes to .5249. His OOWP calculation is thus .5849.

Brian