Softball RPI is out ...

[GoneGolfin]

Can you explain how Louisville is so high? Their schedule isn't impressive

Louisville has an OWP rank of 67 (vs. #79 for the Cajuns) and an OOWP rank of 7 (vs. #18 for the Cajuns). So, in terms of the RPI, Louisville has played a slightly stronger schedule.

Now, the Cajuns have played one more elite opponent ... but both schools have played a similar # of Top 50 RPI opponents (11 for Louisiana vs. 10 for Louisville) and Louisville has played one more Top 100 opponent.

But as we know, 50% of the formula is about opponent W-L (WP). Louisville bests Louisiana in all three categories (WP, OWP, and OOWP).

Finally, both schools have ten RPI bonus wins, but the Cajuns have a slightly higher bonus number as they have two wins vs. the Base RPI Top 25 vs. 1 for Louisville.

(Adjusted RPI in parentheses)
#1 Alabama (.7000)
#2 Florida (.6879)
#3 California (.6878)
#4 Tennessee (.6845)
#5 Arizona State (.6790)
#6 Louisville (.6777)
#7 Louisiana (.6654)
#8 Texas (.6615)
#9 Washington (.6613)
#10 Oregon (.6561)

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Sooooo the question becomes... if the Cajuns keep winning at this pace, or slip in a couple more, what are the chances they keep a top-8 national seed in order to have a good shot to host a regional and super? I would imagine they can't lose any more than one more game. Am I asking for too much? Is that a rhetorical question?

You cannot answer that as you do not know what your opponents are going to do the remainder of the way (the most significant part of the RPI formula) and you do not know how your opponents' opponents are going to perform (just as important as your own WP). All you can control is your WP.

Now, I will say (and sent this to Coach Mike) ...

The Cajuns' Non-Conference RPI at #5 is very key when selection time arrives (Non-Conference RPI rank at selection time last year was #55). If the Cajuns can hold it in the Top 10, this will be one key in landing a regional host site and potentially a Top 8 seed (and potential Super-regional host site). In my opinion, it is very important to remain undefeated in non-conference. The reason being that the Cajuns' Non-Conference winning percentage (WP) can only go down. 1.0000 is perfect. Another win does not help the WP component of the Cajuns' Non-Conference RPI. The Cajuns' OWP can he helped (both Non-Conference and Overall) by only scheduling non-conference opponents with good W-L records. But you want to be careful not to introduce any additional non-conference games that will hurt your Non-Conference OWP (bad opponent W-L records). And as stated above, the Cajuns must emphasize not losing any remaining non-conference games (McNeese State plus any others they might consider adding). It would be far more preferable to drop a conference game than a non-conference game.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Kinda what I was thinking. We have no more high-rpi teams on the schedule, so I would guess we have to just hope for the OOWP or whatever it is of the teams we have played to go up.

You need to quit thinking about "High RPI" teams and think about opponents with good W-L records. The two are not necessarily the same. As an example, playing #52 McNeese State (next week's midweek game) is better (from an RPI standpoint) than playing #21 DePaul, along with several others in the Top 35 (Georgia Tech included at present).

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

You cannot answer that as you do not know what your opponents are going to do the remainder of the way (the most significant part of the RPI formula) and you do not know how your opponents' opponents are going to perform (just as important as your own WP). All you can control is your WP.

Now, I will say (and sent this to Coach Mike) ...

The Cajuns' Non-Conference RPI at #5 is very key when selection time arrives (Non-Conference RPI rank at selection time last year was #55). If the Cajuns can hold it in the Top 10, this will be one key in landing a regional host site and potentially a Top 8 seed (and potential Super-regional host site). In my opinion, it is very important to remain undefeated in non-conference. The reason being that the Cajuns' Non-Conference winning percentage (WP) can only go down. 1.0000 is perfect. Another win does not help the WP component of the Cajuns' Non-Conference RPI. The Cajuns' OWP can he helped (both Non-Conference and Overall) by only scheduling non-conference opponents with good W-L records. But you want to be careful not to introduce any additional non-conference games that will hurt your Non-Conference OWP (bad opponent W-L records). And as stated above, the Cajuns must emphasize not losing any remaining non-conference games (McNeese State plus any others they might consider adding). It would be far more preferable to drop a conference game than a non-conference game.

Brian

Brian, I had mentioned this before years ago discussing RPI with you that in the long run winning non-conference games (not including bonus games) helps your overall RPI more so than winning conference games. You can also say that you would rather lose conference games instead of non-conference games when looking at RPI only. At the end of the year every conference goes .500 within their conference games so it is the non-conference wins that more effect your RPI and especially your conference's RPI. This is why I used to get so upset when it seemed that Tony Robicheaux used to not put as much effort in mid week non conference games as it seemed he always geared his team for the weekend and losing all the non conference games would kill our RPI.

[Chop]

You need to be in charge of making the schedules for both baseball teams.
Would you be interested in that job?

Very important for softball coaching staff to be very mindful of all the implications of adding the wrong non-conference game into the season.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, I had mentioned this before years ago discussing RPI with you that in the long run winning non-conference games (not including bonus games) helps your overall RPI more so than winning conference games. You can also say that you would rather lose conference games instead of non-conference games when looking at RPI only. At the end of the year every conference goes .500 within their conference games so it is the non-conference wins that more effect your RPI and especially your conference's RPI. This is why I used to get so upset when it seemed that Tony Robicheaux used to not put as much effort in mid week non conference games as it seemed he always geared his team for the weekend and losing all the non conference games would kill our RPI.

No, you misunderstand the context in which I wrote this.

In this particular situation, you have a boundary condition where the Cajun softball team has a perfect non-conference WP. Because of this, losing a single game does much more damage to the non-conference WP than it typically would (and therefore the non-conference RPI). The same held true for the overall WP (and RPI) before the loss to Troy. At this point, the Cajuns are probably better off if they do not schedule any more non-conference games. Although McNeese State will be a nice add to the non-conference RPI, provided the Cajuns win. This is why, in this particular scenario in the context of RPI, the lone remaining non-conference game is the most important remaining game on the schedule.

Now, speaking strictly from the standpoint of your RPI value/calculation, there is no difference between non-conference and conference games. Winning/losing a conference game vs. winning/losing a non-conference game results in the same WP. That is, if you win a non-conference game and lose a conference game, your RPI will be exactly the same as if the scenario was reversed.

Now, leaving aside non-conference RPI as a calculation ... non-conference RPI as a selection criterion has a certain value in the selection process. For Cajun softball, I think it will have a special meaning because it will be a barometer in establishing their worthiness in obtaining one of the Top 16 seeds and a potential Top 8 seed. Cajun softball is not concerned with simply obtaining an at-large bid. There are more important things at stake here ... and non-conference RPI will be important in measuring the Cajuns among the elite teams since the Cajuns do not play in one of the power conferences.

With Cajun baseball, non-conference RPI plays a less important role in a typical season. It still obviously plays a role in the selection process for at-large bids. But Cajun baseball is usually concerned with (in the running for) an at-large bid during their good seasons, not a #1 seed or National Seed. Thus, they are typically more concerned with conference positioning, as it is a demonstrated trend that conference champions earn at-large bids (in nearly every season) and those finishing #2 or #3 have a solid chance of earning an at-large bid (though I doubt that will be the case this year). Thus, from a selection criteria standpoint, conference finish ... and by extension conference games ... are more important than non-conference games. If Cajun baseball was in a season where they were winning the Sun Belt comfortably and in the running for a #1 seed, I would feel that non-conference games should receive more emphasis.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

You need to be in charge of making the schedules for both baseball teams.
Would you be interested in that job?

I did not realize we had more than one? :-)

If I was asked, I would help. I have attempted contact, but softball was the only respondent. I am not going to peddle it.

Very important for softball coaching staff to be very mindful of all the implications of adding the wrong non-conference game into the season.

I think Coach Mike understands.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

No, you misunderstand the context in which I wrote this.

In this particular situation, you have a boundary condition where the Cajun softball team has a perfect non-conference WP. Because of this, losing a single game does much more damage to the non-conference WP than it typically would (and therefore the non-conference RPI). The same held true for the overall WP (and RPI) before the loss to Troy. At this point, the Cajuns are probably better off if they do not schedule any more non-conference games. Although McNeese State will be a nice add to the non-conference RPI, provided the Cajuns win. This is why, in this particular scenario in the context of RPI, the lone remaining non-conference game is the most important remaining game on the schedule.

Now, speaking strictly from the standpoint of your RPI value/calculation, there is no difference between non-conference and conference games. Winning/losing a conference game vs. winning/losing a non-conference game results in the same WP. That is, if you win a non-conference game and lose a conference game, your RPI will be exactly the same as if the scenario was reversed.

As a side note, I also should mention that your OWP from conference games is not necessarily .500 ... in fact it rarely is .500 (unless you finished .500). In the case of Cajun softball, it will be well above .500.

Now, leaving aside non-conference RPI as a calculation ... non-conference RPI as a selection criterion has a certain value in the selection process. For Cajun softball, I think it will have a special meaning because it will be a barometer in establishing their worthiness in obtaining one of the Top 16 seeds and a potential Top 8 seed. Cajun softball is not concerned with simply obtaining an at-large bid. There are more important things at stake here ... and non-conference RPI will be important in measuring the Cajuns among the elite teams since the Cajuns do not play in one of the power conferences.

With Cajun baseball, non-conference RPI plays a less important role in a typical season. It still obviously plays a role in the selection process for at-large bids. But Cajun baseball is usually concerned with (in the running for) an at-large bid during their good seasons, not a #1 seed or National Seed. Thus, they are typically more concerned with conference positioning, as it is a demonstrated trend that conference champions earn at-large bids (in nearly every season) and those finishing #2 or #3 have a solid chance of earning an at-large bid. Thus, from a selection criteria standpoint, conference finish ... and by extension conference games ... are more important than non-conference games. If Cajun baseball was in a season where they were winning the Sun Belt comfortably and in the running for a #1 seed, I would feel that non-conference games should receive more emphasis.

Brian

I may be still confused but I would think losing to a conference team would have a greater effect in a positive way on the OOWP because it would effect 11 or so other teams in a positive because it would boost ther OWP where if you lost to a non-conference team it is possible that no one else in your conference played that team so the formula would not be effected as much? And also winning non-conference games has to have a much bigger effect on conference RPI than winning a conference game. This is why conference like the SEC is always ranked so high is because as a whole the conference's non-conference winning percentage is high, and at the end of the season every conference is .500 within it's conference games (1 team wins and one teams loses every conference game).

Brian I may be way off but it is the way I see it and I have a hard time understanding otherwise. I do see your point about the SBC and conference finish may be more important than RPI for at-large selection but I am talking about strictly RPI.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge!!!

[GoneGolfin]

I may be still confused but I would think losing to a conference team would have a greater effect in a positive way on the OOWP because it would effect 11 or so other teams in a positive because it would boost ther OWP where if you lost to a non-conference team it is possible that no one else in your conference played that team so the formula would not be effected as much?

I will attempt to make a stab at the point I think you are trying to make. All of this assumes a complete and fully concluded conference regular season (before the conference tournament).

It seems (If I understand you correctly) you are representing only part of the equation here. Let's say the Cajuns lose to South Alabama (heresy). The South Alabama contribution to the Cajuns' OWP is unchanged. However, the South Alabama win increases the OWP of everyone in the conference (your point) ... other than that of the Cajuns. But what about the Cajun loss now represented in everyone's OWP (other than South Alabama)?

And also winning non-conference games has to have a much bigger effect on conference RPI than winning a conference game.

I do not know what you are trying to say here. Non-conference games have no bearing on a team's conference RPI (which is not calculated BTW, as it is not very meaningful), except for a small potential aggregate OOWP effect.

If you are referring to a team winning non-conference games vs. the Conference's (Sun Belt) overall RPI, of course a conference derives its RPI by its performance in non-conference action. But it should be noted that conference games do have an affect on a Conference's RPI.

This is why conference like the SEC is always ranked so high is because as a whole the conference's non-conference winning percentage is high,

Certainly. But there are reasons why that WP is inflated a bit as well ... other than the strengths of the team (a sidebar).

and at the end of the season every conference is .500 within it's conference games (1 team wins and one teams loses every conference game).

When computing the Conference RPI (Ex. for the SEC or Sun Belt), yes all conference games will result in a .500 contribution to the OWP. But still, the conference games do have an effect in that impact in that 1) the number of conference games vs. non-conference games for each team tilts the calculations and 2) The conference games may help the Conference RPI somewhat (in the case of a weak conference) or hurt the Conference RPI somewhat (in the case of a strong conference).

Brian I may be way off but it is the way I see it and I have a hard time understanding otherwise. I do see your point about the SBC and conference finish may be more important than RPI for at-large selection but I am talking about strictly RPI.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge!!!

You are welcome.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

You made a point I did not realize. Let me get this straight, when we play a team win or lose that particular game does not effect our OWP. I did not know this and this does make a difference. And yes I was forgeting about the Cajun's lose effecting the OOWP also. Thanks Brian for your reply and your contributions to this site. You are the Guru!