Cajun Softball RPI ...

The below is a point in time (now) summary of the RPI rankings around the Cajuns. Arizona and UCLA are still playing ... with Arizona trying to make a run at a national seed and host regional. UCLA leads Arizona 6-4 B5th. But again, Arizona getting a regional will not be at the expense of the Cajuns. Arizona beating UCLA will also keep the Cajuns in front of the Bruins (RPI ranking). A Cajun win tomorrow could see the Cajuns finish as high as #7, if the right things fell into place. But this would mean Missouri beating Florida ... and possibly UCLA losing to either Arizona or Utah. If UCLA wins both and the Cajuns win, it will be close between the two.

Bolded teams are still playing games in their respective conference tournaments. The others are waiting for Selection Monday.

#1 Texas .7053
#2 Oklahoma .6925
#3 LSU .6770
#4 Duke .6756
#5 Missouri .6674
#6 Stanford .6670
#7 Tennessee .6636
#8 Florida .6628
#9 Georgia .6627
#10 Louisiana .6595
#11 Oklahoma State .6585
#12 UCLA .6575
#13 Florida State .6514
#14 Arkansas ..6461
#15 Alabama .6429
#16 Texas A&M .6427
#17 Texas State .6354
#18 Baylor .6349
#19 Clemson .6320
#20 Arizona .6317

Brian

UCLA comes back and defeats Arizona, 6-5.

Update after Arizona vs. UCLA game ...

Bolded teams are still playing games in their respective conference tournaments. The others are waiting for Selection Monday.

#1 Texas .7053
#2 Oklahoma .6925
#3 LSU .6770
#4 Duke .6756
#5 Missouri .6674
#6 Stanford .6670
#7 Tennessee .6636
#8 Florida .6628
#9 Georgia .6627
#10 UCLA .6600
#11 Louisiana .6595
#12 Oklahoma State .6585
#13 Florida State .6514
#14 Arkansas ..6461
#15 Alabama .6429
#16 Texas A&M .6427
#17 Texas State .6354
#18 Baylor .6349
#19 Clemson .6320
#20 Virginia Tech .6312
#21 Arizona .6302
#22 California .6301

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Update after Arizona vs. UCLA game ...

Bolded teams are still playing games in their respective conference tournaments. The others are waiting for Selection Monday.

#1 Texas .7053
#2 Oklahoma .6925
#3 LSU .6770
#4 Duke .6756
#5 Missouri .6674
#6 Stanford .6670
#7 Tennessee .6636
#8 Florida .6628
#9 Georgia .6627
#10 UCLA .6600
#11 Louisiana .6595
#12 Oklahoma State .6585
#13 Florida State .6514
#14 Arkansas ..6461
#15 Alabama .6429
#16 Texas A&M .6427
#17 Texas State .6354
#18 Baylor .6349
#19 Clemson .6320
#20 Virginia Tech .6312
#21 Arizona .6302
#22 California .6301

Brian

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Baseball is on the Monday. Softball is tomorrow night at 6:00.

Go Utah!

The Cajuns are at #11 in the official RPI, just .0001 ahead of #12 Oklahoma State. But ... Oklahoma State has both UCLA and Florida as opponents (single games each) on their schedule. So, it is even more important that Utah defeats UCLA and Missouri defeats Florida this evening.

The Cajuns can also possibly pass UCLA to get to the #10 spot if UCLA loses to Utah.

#10 UCLA .6596
#11 Louisiana .6581
#12 Oklahoma State .6580
#13 Florida State .6507
#14 Arkansas .6454
#15 Texas A&M .6426
#16 Alabama .6422
#17 Texas State .6380

Brian

Top 5th FLA up 4-1 on Mizzou

Florida wins 6-1

Bolded teams are still playing games in their respective conference tournaments. The others are waiting for Selection Monday.

#1 Texas .7051
#2 Oklahoma .6922
#3 Duke .6771
#4 LSU .6764
#5 Stanford .6667
#6 Missouri .6655
#7 Florida .6649
#8 Tennessee .6626
#9 Georgia .6621
#10 UCLA .6595
#11 Louisiana .6581
#12 Oklahoma State .6578
#13 Florida State .6507
#14 Arkansas ..6448
#15 Texas A&M .6428
#16 Alabama .6423
#17 Texas State .6379
#18 Baylor .6350
#19 Clemson .6319
#20 Virginia Tech .6311
#21 Arizona .6299
#22 California .6295
#23 Mississippi State .6274
#24 Auburn .6215
#25 Charlotte .6188

The Cajuns at #11 are nursing a .0003 lead over #12 Oklahoma State. Still a possibility the Cajuns move to #10 with a Utah win over UCLA. They will be 10, 11, or 12. #13 is too far away.

Brian

Bolded teams are still playing games in their respective conference tournaments. The others are waiting for Selection Monday.

#1 Texas .7051
#2 Oklahoma .6922
#3 Duke .6771
#4 LSU .6764
#5 Stanford .6667
#6 Missouri .6655
#7 Florida .6649
#8 Tennessee .6626
#9 Georgia .6621
#10 UCLA .6595
#11 Louisiana .6581
#12 Oklahoma State .6578
#13 Florida State .6507
#14 Arkansas ..6448
#15 Texas A&M .6428
#16 Alabama .6423
#17 Texas State .6379
#18 Baylor .6350
#19 Clemson .6319
#20 Virginia Tech .6311
#21 Arizona .6299
#22 California .6295
#23 Mississippi State .6274
#24 Auburn .6215
#25 Charlotte .6188

The Cajuns at #11 are nursing a .0003 lead over #12 Oklahoma State. Still a possibility the Cajuns move to #10 with a Utah win over UCLA. They will be 10, 11, or 12. #13 is too far away.

As for being a national seed, the committee would need to come up with someone outside of the RPI Top 16 (worst case scenario) to supplant the Cajuns.

#17 Texas State? No. The Cajuns ran away with the Sun Belt title. One Sun Belt Tournament game does not change this. Head-to-head they split four games ... all in San Marcos. Texas State also has no RPI Top 10 wins. Cajuns have the #5 SOS and the #1 NC SOS. This is going to be noticed by the committee. Texas State has a #41 SOS and #30 NC SOS.

#18 Baylor? Possibly, due to head-to-head series win over the Cajuns (early in the season). But that requires closing an RPI ranking gap of 7 spots. Baylor was 15-14 in conference with #4 SOS and #6 NC SOS.

I think #23 Mississippi State is too far back.

I also think the Cajuns will be seeded ahead of Texas A&M and probably Alabama. So there are others in the RPI Top 16 that I do not think will eclipse the Cajuns.

This was an eval 5 days ago for more insight into the metrics.

Brian

Thanks for all the great information Brian. Makes me more confident Cajuns will host.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Cajuns get a #13 seed matched up w/ #4 TSAB. When they lose their regional again, we'll have Supers in Lafayette!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cajunchuck

Thanks for all the great information Brian. Makes me more confident Cajuns will host.

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Thank you for the comment, you are welcome.

The Cajuns do finish ahead of Oklahoma State in a tight one … grabbing the #11 RPI ranking at selection time.

The Cajuns also finished with the #4 SOS and #1 NC SOS … passing #18 Baylor’s #5 SOS.

Brian

we Comin

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Thank you for the comment, you are welcome.

The Cajuns do finish ahead of Oklahoma State in a tight one … grabbing the #11 RPI ranking at selection time.

The Cajuns also finished with the #4 SOS and #1 NC SOS … passing #18 Baylor’s #5 SOS.

Brian

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Curiosity’s sake, with a W yesterday, where would we have finished?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

Thank you for the comment, you are welcome.

The Cajuns do finish ahead of Oklahoma State in a tight one … grabbing the #11 RPI ranking at selection time.

The Cajuns also finished with the #4 SOS and #1 NC SOS … passing #18 Baylor’s #5 SOS.

Brian

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These are impressive numbers for the Cajuns. So what will be the reasons we either don’t host or host as 16 maybe 15 seed?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jacob81

These are impressive numbers for the Cajuns. So what will be the reasons we either don’t host or host as 16 maybe 15 seed?

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I’m sure the goal post is moving as we speak.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GeauxCajuns

Curiosity’s sake, with a W yesterday, where would we have finished?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by GeauxCajuns

Curiosity’s sake, with a W yesterday, where would we have finished?

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#9, right on top of Tennessee at #8.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jacob81

These are impressive numbers for the Cajuns. So what will be the reasons we either don’t host or host as 16 maybe 15 seed?

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I think the Cajuns will be a national seed/host, likely as a #14/#15. #13 is possible ... but record against RPI Top 25 and 50 would be the reason they do not get their RPI ranking as a seed.

I am also a bit concerned that Texas A&M will be overweighted by the committee due to conference finish ... even though (as I outlined in a prior post) that their third place finish in the SEC was due to the Aggies avoiding the better teams in the SEC (Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Georgia) ... while being swept by Florida and LSU. Their best SEC wins were against T6th Mississippi State and 9th Alabama.

For the record, I said that we were not hosting last year due to not meeting the selection committee's criteria for a national seed/host. We were not screwed ... we did not have the resume. We do have the resume this year. I would only get concerned if we see Baylor as a national seed/host (obviously Mississippi State, but I do not think they reach that far down), but even in this situation I think the Cajuns eval better than others that are in the RPI Top 16.

Brian

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

#9, right on top of Tennessee at #8.

Brian

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Damn. That seems like it would have made a huge difference in the seeding we will end up getting. I understand that we didn’t have the resume last year to host. I remember wondering how the coaches could have gotten their expectations so wrong last year.

Obviously you know way more than I ever will about this RPI thing, but I still say the committee will use any metric they can to justify not seeding the Cajuns anywhere near their RPI rank. I will be pleasantly surprised if we see anything lower (as in real number) than a 15 seed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DieHard 1280

Damn. That seems like it would have made a huge difference in the seeding we will end up getting. I understand that we didn’t have the resume last year to host. I remember wondering how the coaches could have gotten their expectations so wrong last year.

Obviously you know way more than I ever will about this RPI thing, but I still say the committee will use any metric they can to justify not seeding the Cajuns anywhere near their RPI rank. I will be pleasantly surprised if we see anything lower (as in real number) than a 15 seed.

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With that much on the line yesterday, the poor play was hard to figure and unexpected. I'll be pleasantly surprised by any seed and hosting considering the committee's past history.

Oklahoma State …
6-4 vs. RPI Top 10 gets them the #5 national seed.

Mississippi State is not a national seed, as expected.

I expect Duke and LSU to be called soon. Duke as the 9?

Brian

13 it is!!

And that is a fair seed, folks.

Texas State over Texas A&M for #16? You can easily make a case.

Regardless, the two are in the same region.

Brian