Re: Softball RPI through Games of 5/5/2024
Let's say the season ended today and we take the worst case scenario ... and determine if the Cajuns are still considered a national seed. First, let's assume that all of the RPI Top 16 (except the Cajuns at #11) are considered a national seed. Then we are left with the schools outside the RPI Top 16 to eclipse the Cajuns for the one remaining national seed spot. The below is not fully exhaustive, but hits on the most important metrics.
#17 Virginia Tech
- 3rd place in the #4 RPI ACC
- Solid # of road wins (14-10-1)
- 8-2 in their last 10
- 1-4 vs. RPI Top 10 (5 games)
- Pedestrian 3-6-1 vs. RPI Top 25
- 10-7-1 vs. RPI Top 50
- 24-11-1 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 45
- NC SOS 53
- No bad losses (4-0 vs. RPI 150+)
This is not a national seed resume, IMO. Strong #2 seed.
#18 Baylor
- 4th place (14-13) in the #2 RPI Big XII
- Road record (8-10). Not good ... but Road SOS is very strong.
- 9-1 in their last 10
- 3-10 vs. RPI Top 10 (13 games)
- 5-12 vs. RPI Top 25 (most of the games are in the Top 10)
- 13-18 vs. RPI Top 50. Mediocre 8-5 record vs. teams 26 -> 50.
- 22-19 vs. RPI Top 100 (very top heavy)
- SOS 6
- NC SOS 7
- 1 bad loss (7-1 vs. RPI 150+)
- Won 2/3 games at Louisiana (head to head)
Several things to like and dislike in Baylor's resume. Lukewarm on some of the resume. Head-to-head advantage vs. Louisiana could play factor, but RPI ranking differential is an issue.
#20 California
- 7th place (9-13) in the #3 RPI Pac-12 (Huge red flag)
- Road record (8-7). Not many road games ... but strong Road SOS.
- 6-4 in their last 10
- 1-5 vs. RPI Top 10 (6 games)
- 6-9 vs. RPI Top 25 (Solid)
- 10-13 vs. RPI Top 50 (Top heavy ... not great against 26 -> 50)
- 23-16 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 28
- NC SOS 27
- No bad losses (7-0 vs. RPI 150+)
- Split 2 games at Louisiana (head to head)
Without the poor conference performance, Cal would be in the running, but still may have been short. But the 7th place team with a 9-13 conference record is not hosting ... certainly not over more qualified schools such as Washington and Arizona in their conference.
#21 Mississippi State
- Tied for 6th place (12-12) in the #1 RPI SEC with LSU and Georgia
- Road record (9-7). Not many road games.
- 4-6 in their last 10
- 4-6 vs. RPI Top 10 (10 games)
- 11-11 vs. RPI Top 25
- 17-14 vs. RPI Top 50 (Top heavy)
- 22-15 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 16
- NC SOS 136
- 2 bad losses (7-2 vs. RPI 150+)
- Swept 2 games at home vs. Louisiana (head to head)
Similar to Baylor, several things to like and dislike in this resume. Head-to-head sweep vs. Louisiana is an advantage. Very nice record vs. the Top 10 and 25. 2 bad losses will stick out. Will get dinged on NC SOS. RPI ranking separation from Louisiana will be a factor.
#25 Washington
- Tied for 3rd place (13-10) in the #3 RPI Pac-12 with Oregon
- Road record (9-6). Not many road games.
- 5-5 in their last 10
- 3-6 vs. RPI Top 10
- 7-7 vs. RPI Top 25
- 10-11 vs. RPI Top 50 (3-4 vs. 26 -> 50)
- 20-12 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 42
- NC SOS 130
- 0 bad losses (6-0 vs. RPI 150+)
#23 Arizona
- 5th place (13-11) in the #3 RPI Pac-12 (just 1/2 game behind Washington and Oregon)
- Road record (8-9). Not many road games.
- 7-3 in their last 10
- 2-5 vs. RPI Top 10
- 5-11 vs. RPI Top 25
- 11-14-1 vs. RPI Top 50
- 22-15-1 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 15
- NC SOS 23
- 0 bad losses (4-0 vs. RPI 150+)
Respectable resumes for Washington and Arizona. I think Washington evaluates slightly better and they defeated Arizona 2/3 in Tucson. Warts on both of these resumes and RPI ranking differential with Louisiana will be difficult to overcome. Stanford and UCLA will be hosting as national seeds ... potentially both as Top 8 national seeds. While the committee might like a third regional out west, a third is difficult to swallow ... unless it comes at the expense of someone like #16 Texas A&M. I do not think it comes at the expense of #11 Louisiana. While on the surface Texas A&M looks strong when you consider their third place finish in the SEC (#1 RPI conference) ... ahead of teams such as Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama ... if you dig below the surface, they got the cupcake SEC schedule. They avoided Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Georgia. They were swept by Florida and LSU. Their best SEC wins were against T6th Mississippi State and 9th Alabama. They literally lived off of the bottom of the conference. I also think that Alabama is at serious risk of not being a national seed.
I skipped #19 Texas State as they do not have a national seed resume and are easily second in the pecking order of the Sun Belt, regardless of what happens in the Sun Belt Tournament at their home field in San Marcos.
And now the Louisiana resume ...
#11 Louisiana
- 1st place (22-2) in the #6 RPI Sun Belt. A conference champion.
- Road record (16-8). Strong # of wins, overall games played, and the best NC Road SOS in the country.
- 9-1 in their last 10
- 2-6 vs. RPI Top 10
- 6-12 vs. RPI Top 25
- 12-14 vs. RPI Top 50 (Top heavy).
- 29-16 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 4
- NC SOS 1
- 0 bad losses (6-0 vs. RPI 150+)
The Cajuns played 24 road games, had the best NC Road SOS in the country, had the best NC SOS in the country, and the fourth strongest overall schedule in the country. They have two RPI Top 10 wins and 6 RPI Top 25 wins. This should speak volumes to the selection committee.
Brian
Quote
Re: Softball RPI through Games of 5/5/2024
Originally Posted by VObserver
