I have not seen the ESPN article ... and I still do not think I would have made the same choice ... but I certainly understand the choice and was not shocked by the decision Napier made. What I discussed with my wife at the time ...
1) Obviously everyone was uncomfortable with punting the ball and my thought going into the Cajuns' last offensive series was that they needed to play for a first down to win. I and many others would have run the football on that 3rd and 2 ... especially when the defensive alignment on that 3rd and 2 was was achievable for the Cajuns (was not an 8 in the box alignment). If you come up just short, you challenge your conference best OL and RBs to win the game on 4th down.
2) This did not happen and we go back to the fact that nobody was comfortable punting the ball in that situation. Now, to take a safety on a 4th and 2 from your own 35 is one of the most unconventional things I have seen. But if Napier had come to the conclusion that he cannot risk attempting a punt, you are either going for it or taking the safety.
** Another hybrid option I would consider is ... line up to attempt the punt. If the snap is clean, you punt away. If not, the punter is mentally ready to chase the ball down and attempt to ensure a safety (scooping and running ... or kicking it out of the end zone). Being mentally ready is an advantage in that an over-snap is always a surprise to the punter. In this case, it would not be a surprise (unfortunately for the Cajuns in this game) and the course of action would have been thought-through beforehand. Still some risk here, to be certain. But another option. A variation of this would be to put one of the blockers back behind the punter to increase the probability of success in an over-snap situation.
3) The FG kicking conditions (everything from the snap, hold, to kick) were perilous. Had they not been so perilous, I do not think Napier would have allowed the lead to be cut to three points in that situation. But I think that this situation was different and some unconventional thinking was reasonable. But I think another important aspect in favor of Napier's decision was ...
4) When a team is down by four or more points and it is TD or bust, it changes the mindset of the trailing team. They are more aggressive in their approach. Conversely, when a team is down by three, they are more conservative in their approach ... especially once they are in FG range. The approach is not to make a mistake and sure that at minimum they get to a FG attempt. Add in that the FG kicking conditions were perilous, this adds to the probability that the Cajuns escape with a win. I am not convinced the Cajuns make it out of Boone with a win had App State been down by five and forced to put it in the end zone. App State would have had a different mindset.
5) The context of the situation/game was unique and we may never see such a context for a decision like this ever again. I do credit Napier for some out of the box thinking that was sure to draw significant criticism (even with eventual success), especially at the outset before people had a chance to truly digest all of the variables.
As a post-script ... the App State kicker was kicking the ball low all night. I thought the Cajuns had a block earlier in the game on the 43-yarder (just missed). He obviously missed the short FG earlier in the first half. On that final FG attempt, it was also low and I felt that if the kick would have been online, the ball would have intercepted a legion of Cajun hands resulting in a block. I am not convinced that the Cajuns still did not get a finger on the kick that was left.
Brian
Years and years ago, I can remember, I believe, an MNF game with the Dolphins. Lots of discussion about what Miami would do. Shula calls for a safety, just like Napier did. Cosell or someone in the booth commented that Shula was years ahead of everyone in his thinking. Master call by Shula
Playing a road game in crappy weather against a very good App State team that the Cajuns have never beat in the past. Wow! What an awesome win. We are good!
Go Cajuns!!
Epic game thread. Thanks to everyone who contributed.
I feel quite a bit calmer this morning. Last night was much too stressful. On to Conway.
The win feels a lot better now the dust has settled on that wild rollercoaster game. There was a lot of good in the game, Manac, Ragas, Mitchell, Leblanc, and many others made it possible to win it.
First, it was mind boggling why we didn't run on 3rd and 2. Given that, Levi should have just taken a sack since Napier was gonna take the safety anyway. Make them use their last timeout. Lastly, go for it on 4th down. Snyder's kick from the 20 was short, and they ran it back to almost midfield. Hard to understand his thinking.
"What I don't understand is why we put the ball in the air on third and two. I can even understand calling a pass play but as soon as Levi sees it is not open, running straight ahead or taking a sack should have been an immediate reaction. Especially so, if you are going to take the safety on fourth down. That way, App is forced to take their last timeout prior to getting the ball back. "
MY FEELINGS 100%!!!!
My thinking precisely. Especially at crunch time a coaching staff should be two plays ahead of the current one.
If you know you are willing to take a safety, don't run any play that might stop the clock (aka pass) and who knows? You might, "JUST MIGHT" be able to gain 2 yards with one of Louisiana's stellar running backs.
Worse case the runner gets stopped and the opponent is forced to call a Time Out or the clock ticks to your advantage.
If the run works, GAME OVER.
It could be said if the pass works game over, but if the pass doesn't work it should have been turned into a run the clock play. And this was something that should be known ahead of time.
Nm
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