I just looked up his stats, he threw only 8 ints this year, but he also had the fewest amount of pass attempts in his career. His INT percentage is at the lowest of his career, (just over 2% of his passes were picked, compared to the last 2 seasons were around in the 3-4% range of his passes being picked. With that said, you're correct, that's still not a bad percentage, outside of the TCU game, stats don't bear out that he was the reason for any of their losses this season.
With that said, what does give some credence to their assertion, he has his lowest completion percentage of his career at just 52% on the season. He only had over 60% completion percentage twice this season, against Air Force, and New Mexico. Conversely, he was under 50% completion percentage 5 times, in those games where he was under 50% they were 2-3, and one of those wins was a squeaker over a less than steller 3-8 Army team. So keeping his completion percentage down would be a big gain for the Cajuns, which I like our chances with the DB's we have in Bentley and White.
So I see it this way, I think our offense will get our opportunities, we match up well against a 3-3-5 defense, which we've already shown, we need to get Harris cranked up which will allow our big playmakers down the field to do what they do best. If Harris is effective, then I expect Green, Lawson, and Peoples to be able to exploit some openings.
Lastly, the one factor that no one has noticed or thinks about, Rocky Long has not shown to be a good bowl game coach, he is 1-4 in bowl games with his only win being over a 6-6 Nevada team. There is something to be said about a coach who can keep his team focused on the game over the festivities of bowl week, some coaches are better at it than others. I don't know how HUD will handle it, we haven't seen him coach a bowl game yet, BUT, we do know Long's history in that situation.
I think if we come to play like we did against FIU, MT, Troy, I think we win this game.