The only 2 bowls that are contractually obligated to host a Sun Belt team is the New Orleans Bowl and the GoDaddy.com Bowl. Every other bowl has contracts with other conferences. As I understand it, even if we don't lose another game all year, the only way we go to a "better" bowl is if the other bowl can't fill that spot with their contractually-obligated conference team.
The N.O. Bowl can pick any team that is bowl-eligible, even if that team is not the conference champion. The caveat with this is that the conference champion has to be accommodated first. If we win the conference, N.O. will invite us and the only way we don't go is if we are invited to and choose to go to another bowl that can't fill their contractually-obligated spot. Even if we don't win the conference championship and are bowl eligible, N.O. Bowl would still like us because of our proximity and fan base - they've made that relatively public over the past few years.
But here's a possible scenario: Let's say that stAte happens to win the conference and we are bowl-eligible. GoDaddy would probably invite stAte because they would rather a conference champion. But stAte declines the invitation and would rather go to N.O. for whatever reason. And nobody else invites stAte. N.O. must then take stAte and we would go to GoDaddy Bowl.
At least, that's how I understand it...
But in my opinion, there isn't a "better" bowl than New Orleans at this time. Maybe down the road, but even if we finish 10-2, I still think its the best option.