Before I give you the secret (and there are several, so "secrets" is more like it) let me just say the fact that OSU is getting 11 players back on offense does not mean (by itself) they will be as productive in their 1st game of the season as they were in their 5th last year. Timing may be off, a receiver may have bulked up and is slower the QB-WR timing is not the same. Another WR is faster this year, perhaps they were the same speed last year and the QB and his receivers were totally on the same page. This year it takes a game or two to get back to where they were. I'm not saying this is the case, I'm saying it is not 100% certain a team starts the season where it left off, EVEN with 11 returners.
OK Secrets to winning. IMPROVEMENT
Improve:
UL rushes for 132 yards total.
UL passes for 10 more yards than they did last year vs OSU
Hold OSU's Justin Blackmon to 180 yards receiving instead of 190 and don't let anyone pick up his slack
Hold OSU to 10 yards less rushing, than they earned last year.
UL gets 3 more 1st downs than last year
Hold OSU to 1 less first down
UL punts the 2 times less than 2010
OSU punts 2 times more than they did in 2010
The above can also mean 2 fewer 3rd down conversions for OSU and 2 more 3rd down conversions for UL. 4th down conversions lagniappe.
Maintain kickoff results of last season
However UL doesn't need a Daryl Surgent KO return but taking the KOR out of the equation needs to improve average starting field position by 5 yards per possession.
UL needs to hold OSU to 4 yards worse starting field position on average.
1 less turn over for UL
1 more TO for OSU
Add it all up and this will result in 2 fewer TD's for OSU and 2 more TDs for UL (even without the KO return)
UL kicks 1 FG
OSU kicks 3 instead of 4
UL WINS 38-37
jmo