2005 NCAA Baseball Regional Projections .

[GoneGolfin]

OK. Here is my first cut. I may make another pass in the morning to make some minor changes. Regional pairings are presented in national seed order with the accompanying super regional pairing. Automatic bids are noted with an accompanying (A).

National Seeds
1. Tulane
2. Georgia Tech
3. California State-Fullerton
4. Baylor
5. Florida
6. Mississippi
7. Nebraska
8. Oregon State

New Orleans, Louisiana Regional
1. Tulane (N1) (A)
2. Louisiana
3. Oklahoma
4. Quinnipiac (A)

vs.
Tallahassee, Florida Regional
1. Florida State
2. Mississippi State (A)
3. South Alabama (A)
4. Rhode Island (A)

Atlanta, Georgia Regional
1. Georgia Tech (N2) (A)
2. South Carolina
3. North Carolina-Wilmington
4. North Carolina A&T (A)

vs.
Knoxville, Tennessee Regional
1. Tennessee
2. North Carolina
3. Miami-Ohio (A)
4. Austin Peay State (A)

Fullerton, California Regional
1. California State-Fullerton (N3) (A)
2. Arizona
3. Missouri
4. Marist (A)

vs.
Tempe, Arizona Regional
1. College of Charleston
2. Arizona State
3. Cal Poly
4. UNLV (A)

Waco, Texas Regional
1. Baylor (N4)
2. TCU
3. Stanford
4. Oral Roberts (A)

vs.
Baton Rouge, Louisiana Regional
1. LSU
2. Rice (A)
3. Northwestern State
4. Southern (A)

Gainesville, Florida Regional
1. Florida (N5)
2. Virginia
3. Stetson (A)
4. Furman

vs.
Miami, Florida Regional
1. Miami
2. Alabama
3. Troy
4. Army (A)

Oxford, Mississippi Regional
1. Mississippi (N6)
2. North Carolina State
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Harvard (A)

vs.
Austin, Texas Regional
1. Texas
2. Arkansas
3. Wichita State (A)
4. Texas-San Antonio (A)

Lincoln, Nebraska Regional
1. Nebraska (N7) (A)
2. Winthrop (A)
3. Creighton
4. Illinois-Chicago (A)

vs.
Clemson, South Carolina Regional
1. Clemson
2. Coastal Carolina
3. Auburn
4. Virginia Commonwealth (A)

Corvallis, Oregon Regional
1. Oregon State (N8) (A)
2. Pepperdine (A)
3. St. John's
4. Maine (A)

vs.
Long Beach, California Regional
1. Long Beach State
2. Southern California
3. Notre Dame (A)
4. Ohio State (A)

Last Five in the Tournament:
1. Creighton
2. St. John's
3. North Carolina-Wilmington
4. Cal Poly
5. Troy

Next Five in the Tournament:
1. Florida Atlantic
2. East Carolina
3. Georgia
4. Vanderbilt
5. Central Florida

My general philosophy is that the NCAA will award schools from decent conferences that won their respective regular season titles. This is why schools like Creighton, St. John's, North Carolina-Wilmington, and Troy make the field over Florida Atlantic, East Carolina, and Central Florida. The selection committee could take ten SEC teams. But I think you have a natural breaking point at nine with Georgia and Vanderbilt just missing the field. Neither team made the SEC conference tournament. Auburn did not make the SEC Tournament, but their RPI is too hard to ignore and the selection committee took nine SEC teams last season. I see them taking nine this season as well.

I had the Ragin' Cajuns as the last #2 seed. The selection committee may very well decide to give the Cajuns a #3 seed and award a school like Southern Mississipi or Missouri a #2 seed. This is too close to make a confident call. I went with the conference championship.

You will notice that Texas is no longer a national seed. Baylor and Nebraska (tied for regular season title and met in tournament finals) deserve a national seed over Texas. Texas should be fighting it out with Oregon State for the last national seed. I do not think the Big XII gets three national seeds. But there is precedent for this (ACC in 2000 and 2002).

Brian

[RaginCager]

In basketball the seedings are 1-16 why is baseball different if they are both fields of 64?

[Cajun90]

Okay now I can go to bed.If you want a good laugh go take a look at Baseball America's projections.

[GoneGolfin]

Okay now I can go to bed.If you want a good laugh go take a look at Baseball America's projections.

Yep, John Manuel is at it again with this BA cohorts. From their latest projections .

"Last Four In
Louisiana-Lafayette
Michigan
St. John's
Vanderbilt"

They also have Northwestern State four spots away from making the field. That is ludicrous.

"Last Four Out
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
UNC Wilmington
Northwestern State"

[GoneGolfin]

In basketball the seedings are 1-16 why is baseball different if they are both fields of 64?

In Basketball, you really only have four regions. Hence the seedings from 1 - 16. Baseball is broken up into sixteen regions of all on campus play. That is until the final eight at the CWS.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Time to get out the red marker. I missed three teams in the field (Michigan, East Carolina, and Florida Atlantic -- instead of Cal Poly, UNC Wilmington, and Troy). I nailed 34 teams in their correct regional. I had 31 teams in their correct regional with their correct seeding.

General Stats
-------------
61 of 64 teams correctly projected in the field
Perfect 8/8 on national seeds, 4/8 were seeded perfectly
15/16 Host Regionals correctly projected
4/8 Super-regional matchups correctly projected
15/16 #1 seeds correctly projected (missed on Coastal Carolina, had College of Charleston)
13/16 #2 seeds correctly projected (missed Auburn, Southern Mississippi, and College of Charleston)
34 teams slotted correctly in regional
31 teams slotted and seeded correctly in regional
4 regionals with at least three teams seeded and slotted correctly

For the stat above,

I had 1. LSU, 2. Rice, and 3. Northwestern State in Baton Rouge (Southern was my #4)
I had 1. CSF, 2. Arizona, and 3. Missouri in Fullerton (Marist was my #4)
I had 1. Baylor, 2. TCU, and 3. Stanford in Waco (Oral Roberts was my #4)
I had 1. Nebraska, 2. Creighton, and 4. Illinois-Chicago in Lincoln (Winthrop was my #2)

Brian

[Turbine]

Most esculent job!

It was food for thought while you made the wait bearable.

[GoneGolfin]

Time to get out the red marker. I missed three teams in the field (Michigan, East Carolina, and Florida Atlantic -- instead of Cal Poly, UNC Wilmington, and Troy). I nailed 34 teams in their correct regional. I had 31 teams in their correct regional with their correct seeding.

General Stats
-------------
61 of 64 teams correctly projected in the field
Perfect 8/8 on national seeds, 4/8 were seeded perfectly
15/16 Host Regionals correctly projected
4/8 Super-regional matchups correctly projected
15/16 #1 seeds correctly projected (missed on Coastal Carolina, had College of Charleston)
13/16 #2 seeds correctly projected (missed Auburn, Southern Mississippi, and College of Charleston)
34 teams slotted correctly in regional
31 teams slotted and seeded correctly in regional
4 regionals with at least three teams seeded and slotted correctly

For the stat above,

I had 1. LSU, 2. Rice, and 3. Northwestern State in Baton Rouge (Southern was my #4)
I had 1. CSF, 2. Arizona, and 3. Missouri in Fullerton (Marist was my #4)
I had 1. Baylor, 2. TCU, and 3. Stanford in Waco (Oral Roberts was my #4)
I had 1. Nebraska, 2. Creighton, and 4. Illinois-Chicago in Lincoln (Winthrop was my #2)

Brian

As an interesting comparison, Baseball America had .

61 of 64 teams correctly projected in the field
8/8 National Seeds, only 1/8 seeded perfectly
5/8 Super-regional matchups correctly projected
15/16 #1 seeds correctly projected
14/16 #2 seeds correctly projected
23 teams slotted correctly in regional
22 teams slotted and seeded correctly in regional
0 regionals with at least three teams seeded and slotted correctly

The above three stats illustrate how difficult it can be to correctly seed and place teams in regionals.

Baseball America did not provide host regional projections.

Brian

[Turbine]

I put the most stock in those #2 projections . . . yeah right

Without grading on difficulty (you went with a much higher bar) you still easily beat them. All this while you were gone golfin.

GG         BA 
61         61
 8          8
15         15
 4          4
15         15
13         14
34         23
31         22
 4          0
185       162

[GoneGolfin]

I put the most stock in those #2 projections . . . yeah right

Without grading on difficulty (you went with a much higher bar) you still easily beat them. All this while you were gone golfin.

GG         BA 
61         61
 8          8
15         15
 4          4
15         15
13         14
34         23
31         22
 4          0
185       162

I made a mistake in my edits for BA. BA had 5/8 super-regional matchups projected correctly, not four.

Interesting table you put together. But I would argume that the last three statistics roughly calculate the same thing. Not quite, but close.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Time to get out the red marker. I missed three teams in the field (Michigan, East Carolina, and Florida Atlantic -- instead of Cal Poly, UNC Wilmington, and Troy). I nailed 34 teams in their correct regional. I had 31 teams in their correct regional with their correct seeding.

General Stats
-------------
61 of 64 teams correctly projected in the field
Perfect 8/8 on national seeds, 4/8 were seeded perfectly
15/16 Host Regionals correctly projected
4/8 Super-regional matchups correctly projected
15/16 #1 seeds correctly projected (missed on Coastal Carolina, had College of Charleston)
13/16 #2 seeds correctly projected (missed Auburn, Southern Mississippi, and College of Charleston)
34 teams slotted correctly in regional
31 teams slotted and seeded correctly in regional
4 regionals with at least three teams seeded and slotted correctly

For the stat above,

I had 1. LSU, 2. Rice, and 3. Northwestern State in Baton Rouge (Southern was my #4)
I had 1. CSF, 2. Arizona, and 3. Missouri in Fullerton (Marist was my #4)
I had 1. Baylor, 2. TCU, and 3. Stanford in Waco (Oral Roberts was my #4)
I had 1. Nebraska, 2. Creighton, and 4. Illinois-Chicago in Lincoln (Winthrop was my #2)

Brian

And finally the comparison with Mark's projections for SEBaseball.com .

63 of 64 teams correctly projected in the field
7/8 on national seeds, 2/8 were seeded perfectly
15/16 Host Regionals correctly projected
3/8 Super-regional matchups correctly projected
14/16 #1 seeds correctly projected (missed on Coastal Carolina, had Rice)
12/16 #2 seeds correctly projected (missed Auburn, Arkansas, Rice, and Arizona)
22 teams slotted correctly in regional
21 teams slotted and seeded correctly in regional
0 regionals with at least three teams seeded and slotted correctly

[snote]

brian this morning on the sportsnote
http://sportsnoteradio.com/archives/.wed_060105.mp3