SB 2005: Hosting or Not?

[GoneGolfin]

The following are my projections for the sixteen regional hosts that will be announced tomorrow at 2:30pm CST on ESPN's bottomline. I will provide complete regional projections tomorrow once the Sunday games are completed.

Tulane
California State-Fullerton
Baylor
Florida
Georgia Tech
Mississippi
Oregon State
Nebraska
Texas
Clemson
Tennessee
Miami
LSU
Florida State
Long Beach State (#2 seed)
St. John's (#2 seed)

I am going out on a bit of a limb with St. John's. But the NCAA has awarded a #2 seed and host regional in the past to northern schools with worse RPIs than St. John's has this season. I think the NCAA would like to have a regional in the northeast.

If St. John's is not awarded a regional site, I would say it will either be Rice or Mississippi State (most likely Rice). The Bulldogs are undefeated in the SEC Tournament and are now at .500 in SEC play. However, the NCAA will have already made its host site selections before the SEC tournament title game commences.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Some additional info ...

As far as St. John's being a #2 seed, I think they deserve a #3 seed. But the NCAA has been rather charitable to northern teams in the past with both seeding and regionals. This could also hurt the Cajuns' possibility of being a #3 seed. I base the possibility of St. John's being a potential #2 seed and host based on some of the following past data ...

The first four years of the new tournament format saw a team with a pRPI between 42 and 59 awarded a #2 seed and host regional. St. John's pRPI is currently 54, down from the high 40's before the conference tournament.

1999 - Southern Cal was awarded a host regional and #2 seed with a pRPI of 46.

2000 - Minnesota was awarded a host regional and #2 seed with a pRPI of 42.

2001 - Ohio State was awarded a host regional and #2 seed with a pRPI of 59.

2002 - Notre Dame was awarded a host regional and #2 seed with a pRPI of 43.

So, there is precedent for this.

The selection committee has taken a hiatus on the charitable contributions the last coupld of seasons. It will be interesting to see if this resumes. Maybe a regional in Lincoln and Corvalis is enough for the north. Or maybe they will want one in the northeastern quadrant of the country.

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

Mr. Brian in what regional do you see the Cajuns and what seed?

[Turbine]

So, there is precedent for this.

Hmmmm what came first the host spot or the seeding

[GoneGolfin]

Hmmmm what came first the host spot or the seeding

Exactly.

If St. John's is not awarded a regional site today (and the more logical bet would be a Rice or some other strong #2 seed from the SEC or ACC), then they will be a 3 seed (if they make the field) which gives the Cajuns a better shot at a #2 seed.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

JVMCajuns --

I will be coming out with my regional projections later this evening. But at this point, the Cajuns are on the edge of a #2 seed. I am still pouring over the numbers to determine how many good candidates there are for #2 seeds. But I can tell you that it will be tight. The Cajuns could easily be the last #2 seed in the tournament. My gut says they will be a #2 seed. If they are, I think they could go to New Orleans. Especially with what transpired in the 2002 Baton Rouge regional (Bertman may exert some indirect influence to send the Cajuns elseware). But, maybe not.

If the Cajuns are a #3 seed, they could be in a number of places (Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Oxford, Houston (if Rice hosts).

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

Do you think that Skip has that kind of power to influence the ncaa selection commitee?

[GoneGolfin]

Do you think that Skip has that kind of power to influence the ncaa selection commitee?

Maybe in an indirect way. In the end, I think it is a "good ol boy" network.

Brian

[LSU Bob]

Maybe in an indirect way. In the end, I think it is a "good ol boy" network.

Brian

news flash Skip is no longer on the committee

[GoneGolfin]

news flash Skip is no longer on the committee

No one said that Bertman was on the committee, you need to read more carefully. But he still wields influence. Bertman and Carr (now the chair) are friends. The SEC also has representation on the committee. The interesting thing in all of this is that Tulane AD Rick Dickson is on the selection committee as well.

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

Doesn't mean he can't still pull a few strings with some of his contacts.