National Seeds and #1 seeds ...

[GoneGolfin]

a little history to help understand what the selection committee is thinking.

While the selection committee uses numerous criteria to select the field and assign seeds, I believe they still rely heavily on the three criteria below ...

1) Conference Finish (titles)
2) RPI
3) Conference Tournament results (tournament championships)

RPI still plays an important role in determining the national and #1 seeds, along with the rest of the field. Rumors of the demise of the RPI are not supported by the data, either in recent years or going all the way back to 1999. It is also still clear that Conference regular season titles are extremely important to the committee, as they should be (especially in the power conferences). Finally, the conference tournament results (especially tournament championships) are factored into the equation. But it is not just the conference tournament championship by itself. It is also the additional conference games played in the conference tournament. Let's provide an example ...

Last season, many were confused as to why South Carolina was awarded a National Seed (and #2 at that). The explanation offered was that the committee heavily weighed the postseason conference tournament. Well, that is only partially true. What some are missing is that when you include the conference tournament games with the regular season results, South Carolina moves from the #5 seed in the SEC (2nd in East) to #1 overall (tie). The SEC was tightly packed last season as it is this season.

South Carolina 17-13 (Regular Season #5 seed), 4-0 conference tournament

The West and East regular season winners (Arkansas and Georgia) finished 21-13 and 20-13 respectively). Arkansas was the #1 seed in the SEC Tournament. Arkansas was awarded a National Seed (#8) while Georgia was awarded a #1 seed.

Also factoring into the equation above is that South Carolina has a pRPI of 4. Arkansas was 11 with Georgia 9.

Hence, the above nicely frames this topic as the committee looks at these three attributes quite carefully when determining national and #1 seeds.

Now, let's look at what has happened in recent years with respect to national and #1 seeds and borderline pRPIs. This is of particular concern to Cajun fans with the Cajuns about to fall into the twenties.

2004
Rice (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#6) after winning their conference title. The WAC does not have a postseason tournament. Of course, the Owls were coming off of a national championship.

Notre Dame (pRPI 23) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles.

2003
Nebraska (pRPI 21) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Big XII regular season title.

2002
Southern California (pRPI 28) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Pac 10 title. The Pac 10 does not have a postseason tournament.

2001
Nebraska (pRPI 18) was awarded a national seed (#8) after winning the Big XII regular season and tournament titles.

South Alabama (pRPI 29) was awarded a #1 seed after tying for the Sun Belt regular season title. The Jaguars won the postseason tournament and has the best overall Sun Belt conference record when including the tournament.

Mississippi State (pRPI 24) was awarded a #1 seed after finishing fourth in the SEC and winning the SEC Tournament.

Central Florida (pRPI 21) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Trans American Conference regular season and tournament titles.

2000
Arizona State (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#7) after tying for the Pac 10 title.

UCLA (pRPI 35) was awarded a #1 seed after tying for the Pac 10 title.

1999
Texas A&M (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#7) after winning the Big XII regular season title.

Stanford (pRPI 17) was awarded a National Seed (#6) after winning the Pac 10 title.

Pepperdine (pRPI 42) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the West Coast regular season title.

Wichita State (pRPI 24) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament titles.

As far as the Sun Belt Conference is concerned, South Alabama has been the only #1 seed since the new tournament format commenced. South Alabama last snagged a #1 seed in 2002 with a pRPI of 18. The Jaguars won the Sun Belt regular season title that season. As mentioned previously, the Jaguars were a #1 seed in 2001 with a pRPI of 29.


Brian

[RaginSaintsFan]

Brian, I’m not a regular poster but am an avid reader. That being said I want to thank you.

You are the proverbial “cornucopia of college baseball knowledge”. Your insights are priceless and always a beacon from a lighthouse in fog of college sports thank you again I’m not sure I could have gained the amount of knowledge I have from your posts with five years of research online. I look forward to your future posts and your SEBaseball articles.

[Turner]

Pepperdine (pRPI 42) is most surprising. Goes to show you never can tell. Thanks for the info VERY MUCH.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, I’m not a regular poster but am an avid reader. That being said I want to thank you.

You are the proverbial “cornucopia of college baseball knowledge”. Your insights are priceless and always a beacon from a lighthouse in fog of college sports thank you again I’m not sure I could have gained the amount of knowledge I have from your posts with five years of research online. I look forward to your future posts and your SEBaseball articles.

Wow. Thanks for the compliment.

Brian

[Southpaw03]

Wow! Your knowledge of the game and obvious passion for research amazes me every time I read your posts. Please, keep up the good work.

[GoneGolfin]

Pepperdine (pRPI 42) is most surprising. Goes to show you never can tell. Thanks for the info VERY MUCH.

You are welcome.

Yes, the pRPI number is surprising. But what you need to take into account here is that the selection committee is somewhat aware of the flaw and bias against west coast teams with respect to the RPI. Recall Washington gaining at-large bids (#3 seeds) in 2002 and 2003 with pRPIs of 82 and 72 respectively (both 3rd place finishes in the Pac 10). I think the committee was compensating for this bias.

Pepperdine also sprang up and surprised people in 1992 when Andy Lopez's squad won the national championship over Cal State-Fullerton. The committee does consider what happened in the past to some degree. That is, they take reputation into account.

Brian

[Turbine]

Great Great work, GG !!

Was 1999 the first year of the Super Regional format?

[GoneGolfin]

Great Great work, GG !!

Was 1999 the first year of the Super Regional format?

Yes. This is when the field was expanded to 64 teams.

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

It is always good to get insite from Mr. Brian. Whenever I need to know anything about college baseball or most sports in general he's the man. GONE GOLFIN FOR PRESIDENT you got my vote. Thanks Mr. Brian for all your time and honesty when speaking about the Cajuns even when you tell people the truth and they don't like it.

[GoneGolfin]

a little history to help understand what the selection committee is thinking.

While the selection committee uses numerous criteria to select the field and assign seeds, I believe they still rely heavily on the three criteria below ...

1) Conference Finish (titles)
2) RPI
3) Conference Tournament results (tournament championships)

RPI still plays an important role in determining the national and #1 seeds, along with the rest of the field. Rumors of the demise of the RPI are not supported by the data, either in recent years or going all the way back to 1999. It is also still clear that Conference regular season titles are extremely important to the committee, as they should be (especially in the power conferences). Finally, the conference tournament results (especially tournament championships) are factored into the equation. But it is not just the conference tournament championship by itself. It is also the additional conference games played in the conference tournament. Let's provide an example ...

Last season, many were confused as to why South Carolina was awarded a National Seed (and #2 at that). The explanation offered was that the committee heavily weighed the postseason conference tournament. Well, that is only partially true. What some are missing is that when you include the conference tournament games with the regular season results, South Carolina moves from the #5 seed in the SEC (2nd in East) to #1 overall (tie). The SEC was tightly packed last season as it is this season.

South Carolina 17-13 (Regular Season #5 seed), 4-0 conference tournament

The West and East regular season winners (Arkansas and Georgia) finished 21-13 and 20-13 respectively). Arkansas was the #1 seed in the SEC Tournament. Arkansas was awarded a National Seed (#8) while Georgia was awarded a #1 seed.

Also factoring into the equation above is that South Carolina has a pRPI of 4. Arkansas was 11 with Georgia 9.

Hence, the above nicely frames this topic as the committee looks at these three attributes quite carefully when determining national and #1 seeds.

Now, let's look at what has happened in recent years with respect to national and #1 seeds and borderline pRPIs. This is of particular concern to Cajun fans with the Cajuns about to fall into the twenties.

2004
Rice (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#6) after winning their conference title. The WAC does not have a postseason tournament. Of course, the Owls were coming off of a national championship.

Notre Dame (pRPI 23) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles.

2003
Nebraska (pRPI 21) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Big XII regular season title.

2002
Southern California (pRPI 28) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Pac 10 title. The Pac 10 does not have a postseason tournament.

2001
Nebraska (pRPI 18) was awarded a national seed (#8) after winning the Big XII regular season and tournament titles.

South Alabama (pRPI 29) was awarded a #1 seed after tying for the Sun Belt regular season title. The Jaguars won the postseason tournament and has the best overall Sun Belt conference record when including the tournament.

Mississippi State (pRPI 24) was awarded a #1 seed after finishing fourth in the SEC and winning the SEC Tournament.

Central Florida (pRPI 21) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Trans American Conference regular season and tournament titles.

2000
Arizona State (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#7) after tying for the Pac 10 title.

UCLA (pRPI 35) was awarded a #1 seed after tying for the Pac 10 title.

1999
Texas A&M (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#7) after winning the Big XII regular season title.

Stanford (pRPI 17) was awarded a National Seed (#6) after winning the Pac 10 title.

Pepperdine (pRPI 42) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the West Coast regular season title.

Wichita State (pRPI 24) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament titles.

As far as the Sun Belt Conference is concerned, South Alabama has been the only #1 seed since the new tournament format commenced. South Alabama last snagged a #1 seed in 2002 with a pRPI of 18. The Jaguars won the Sun Belt regular season title that season. As mentioned previously, the Jaguars were a #1 seed in 2001 with a pRPI of 29.


Brian

Some minor corrections for the record ...

2004
Rice (pRPI 18) was awarded a National Seed (#6) after winning their conference title. The WAC does not have a postseason tournament. Of course, the Owls were coming off of a national championship.

Notre Dame (pRPI 23) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles.

2003
Nebraska (pRPI 21) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Big XII regular season title.

2002
Southern California (pRPI 28) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Pac 10 title. The Pac 10 does not have a postseason tournament.

2001
Nebraska (pRPI 16) was awarded a national seed (#8) after winning the Big XII regular season and tournament titles. This could be an interesting parallel to this season.

South Alabama (pRPI 26) was awarded a #1 seed after tying for the Sun Belt regular season title. The Jaguars won the postseason tournament and has the best overall Sun Belt conference record when including the tournament.

Mississippi State (pRPI 27) was awarded a #1 seed after finishing fourth in the SEC and winning the SEC Tournament.

Central Florida (pRPI 22) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Trans American Conference regular season and tournament titles.

2000
Arizona State (pRPI 15) was awarded a National Seed (#7) after tying for the Pac 10 title.

UCLA (pRPI 44) was awarded a #1 seed after tying for the Pac 10 title.

1999
Texas A&M (pRPI 11) was awarded a National Seed (#7) after winning the Big XII regular season title.

Stanford (pRPI 15) was awarded a National Seed (#6) after winning the Pac 10 title.

Pepperdine (pRPI 47) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the West Coast regular season title.

Wichita State (pRPI 19) was awarded a #1 seed after winning the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament titles.