Regional projections from earlier today

[cajunhawk]

_ This is certainly not the case. The NCAA selection board for at-large teams does in fact begin with at-large candidates in the Top 75 RPI only. But the RPI is also used extensively throughout the selection process ... everything from national seed selection before at-large bids are awarded to selecting the last few at-large teams. I remember one year where the national seeds were the RPI teams ranked 1->8 save one team that was #9.


RPI needs to be taken out and shot.

Brian _

Good thing about College Basketball and Baseball...you can't keep the little boys from the dance. And when we get there....we do some damage.

[CajunRed]

EXACTLY! Until the RPI formula is changed to reward those teams willing to go play on the road, it is a poor excuse for good representation of true quality.

A win on the road...+1.25
A loss on the road... -.75
A win at home... +.75
A loss at home... -1.25

Okay, big boys...now go play on the road!

This is certainly not the case. The NCAA selection board for at-large teams does in fact begin with at-large candidates in the Top 75 RPI only. But the RPI is also used extensively throughout the selection process ... everything from national seed selection before at-large bids are awarded to selecting the last few at-large teams. I remember one year where the national seeds were the RPI teams ranked 1->8 save one team that was #9.


RPI needs to be taken out and shot.

Brian

igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ EXACTLY! Until the RPI formula is changed to reward those teams willing to go play on the road, it is a poor excuse for good representation of true quality.

A win on the road...+1.25
A loss on the road... -.75
A win at home... +.75
A loss at home... -1.25

Okay, big boys...now go play on the road!

This is certainly one of the things I would change, as I have mentioned previously. But a considerable amount of statistical study would be required to determine the best constants. Enough to require that CajunRed consume an entire bottle of Tylenol.

However, this change alone would nowhere near make the RPI usable for baseball. Even with this change, it should be taken out and shot.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Yes ... but I would pare this down to being all about OWP. OWP is half the formula and can be used to reasonable extent to manipulate your overall RPI. OOWP is much less controllable and is worth no more than the winning percentage component of the formula. LSU's RPI is as high as it is because of their OWP, not their OOWP.

If you want an egregious example, look at Georgia. Georgia is 25-23, but has a Base RPI of 18 (Adjusted RPI is 21). Why is this? Quite simply, their opponents win more than 63% of their games. Thus, you can win half of your games and sport a Top 20 RPI simply by playing the right schedule. And this does not take into account some additional tricks that could be employed to spruce their OWP even more (while not making the schedule any more difficult ... and possibly making it easier).

At 25-22, Auburn (#22 Base RPI, #23 Adjusted RPI) is another prime example as their OWP is .6268.

Brian _

I should also note that we should be pulling for these teams to lose down the stretch as their eligibility for an at-large bid is in peril. To be eligible for an at-large bid, a team must have a winning record (meaning over .500). Right now, Georgia (25-24) and Auburn (26-23) are in the NCAA Tournament as at-large teams. But not if they finish .500 or lower. LSU would really benefit from this. But so could the Cajuns.

Baylor (24-22) and Washington State (20-22) are two bubble teams that run the risk of being left out due to overall record. Though Washington State is really on the outside at this point (even if they were a game over .500) due to a poor conference record.

The above coupled with the question of Arizona State's appeal puts a number of at-large spots in potential play for bubble teams. But I do not think there is much chance that the appeal hearing for ASU will take place before the NCAA Baseball selections are made.

Brian

[Sonsissymia]

_ Good thing about College Basketball and Baseball...you can't keep the little boys from the dance. And when we get there....we do some damage. _

tcu with the pigskin ended up as high as butler---2nd.

[CajunAmos]

I should also note that we should be pulling for these teams to lose down the stretch as their eligibility for an at-large bid is in peril. To be eligible for an at-large bid, a team must have a winning record (meaning over .500). Right now, Georgia (25-24) and Auburn (26-23) are in the NCAA Tournament as at-large teams. But not if they finish .500 or lower. LSU would really benefit from this. But so could the Cajuns.

Baylor (24-22) and Washington State (20-22) are two bubble teams that run the risk of being left out due to overall record. Though Washington State is really on the outside at this point (even if they were a game over .500) due to a poor conference record.

The above coupled with the question of Arizona State's appeal puts a number of at-large spots in potential play for bubble teams. But I do not think there is much chance that the appeal hearing for ASU will take place before the NCAA Baseball selections are made.

Brian

Would this be a situation where they would have to vacate wins in the tournament at a later time? If that's the case, you'd sure hate them to get in in the first place.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Would this be a situation where they would have to vacate wins in the tournament at a later time? If that's the case, you'd sure hate them to get in in the first place. _

This would be a situation where the penalty phase would simply be delayed (until the 2012 season). The infractions were not committed in the 2011 season. Thus, there would be no reason to vacate any accomplishments this year. But justice should be swift and I believe that if they are guilty, they need to pay the penalty now.

Brian

[RaginFan2]

_ This would be a situation where the penalty phase would simply be delayed (until the 2012 season). The infractions were not committed in the 2011 season. Thus, there would be no reason to vacate any accomplishments this year. But justice should be swift and I believe that if they are guilty, they need to pay the penalty now.

Brian _

Yeah, but the terms "swift justice" and "NCAA" do not belong in the same sentence!

[GoneGolfin]

_ Yeah, but the terms "swift justice" and "NCAA" do not belong in the same sentence! _

Which is why I have said that I think ASU will be in the NCAA Tournament this season.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I wanted to amend the below to say that "The NCAA selection board for at-large teams does in fact begin with at-large candidates in the Top 75 RPI plus conference regular season champions."

Teams with RPI ranks above 75 have made the NCAA Tournament as at-large teams. These were all conference champions.

_ This is certainly not the case. The NCAA selection board for at-large teams does in fact begin with at-large candidates in the Top 75 RPI only. But the RPI is also used extensively throughout the selection process ... everything from national seed selection before at-large bids are awarded to selecting the last few at-large teams. I remember one year where the national seeds were the RPI teams ranked 1->8 save one team that was #9.


RPI needs to be taken out and shot.

Brian _

[cajunhawk]

_ tcu with the pigskin ended up as high as butler---2nd. _

Butler played for a National Title...TCU played for diddly squat. Rationalizing the BCS is like being Jack Kevorkian's publicist.