Regional projections from earlier today

[raginsaints]

Has us in the last 5 in. LSU, Tulane, SLU first 10 out.


Has us in the Texas A&M regional.

http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1220264

[CajunRed]

Obviously, I hope they are right...BUT I don't think they are. They show 4 SBC teams in the tourney. That would be awesome, but I still think we are just out.

We still have a shot, though.

Go Cajuns!

igeaux.mobi

[Rebel02]

_ Obviously, I hope they are right...BUT I don't think they are. They show 4 SBC teams in the tourney. That would be awesome, but I still think we are just out.

We still have a shot, though.

Go Cajuns!

igeaux.mobi _

Why do you think they are wrong?

SEbaseball does a great job predicting the field every year. A better job than everyone else here (except for GoneGolfin).

[Big Buds]

You guys think if we won last night we would be a slam dunk?

[SlappyCajun]

_ You guys think if we won last night we would be a slam dunk? _

I personally though that we had to go 7-3 over the Rice game and the final two series.

Rice - L
MT
MT
MT
ULM
ULM
ULM
Tourney
Tourney
Tourney

Now, I think we need to get seven out of nine. IMO. But I'm not Brian.

[CajunRed]

_ Why do you think they are wrong?

SEbaseball does a great job predicting the field every year. A better job than everyone else here (except for GoneGolfin). _

I know. SE Baseball has been pretty good the last few years. I'm just not convinced that our current record and RPI in mid-50s will cut it. Now, if we finish 2nd in the conference and win a couple in the tourney, then I know we're in...but their projections are as of today...not taking into account what happens here on out. I just think we still have work to do.

Of course, I hope they are correct...especially seeing who they said we would beat out for a spot. And having 4 from The Belt would be awesome.

GoneGolfin will probably come on here and slam me for doubting SE Baseball. :-)

[Cajun90]

You guys think if we won last night we would be a slam dunk?

No. Not even close. The Cajuns are trying to claw up the wrong side of the fence right now. We can make it but we have to finish strong, and get a little help along the way.

[DieHard1280]

Yoo hoo. Brian? Where are you? Lol.


igeaux.mobi

[RaginFan2]

_ Yoo hoo. Brian? Where are you? Lol.


igeaux.mobi _

He must've "gone golfin'"! Oooh, bad! I know, I know! Too early for me to pass that one up...

[GoneGolfin]

GoneGolfin will probably come on here and slam me for doubting SE Baseball. :-) _

No, I will wait to slam you when I get to the park Friday night. :-)

Seriously, everyone needs to realize that when Mark makes these projections, he does so under the assumption that every single conference regular season leader (at the time the projections are released) earns the automatic bid. IOW, there are no teams projected to earn the automatic bid (in multi-bid conferences) that would not have otherwise earned an at-large bid. If such a team does "steal" an automatic bid, that is one less at-large spot available for the bubble teams.

Mark has UL projected as the second to last team in the tournament (#63). Nine years out of ten, this would not be good enough after the conference tournament results are in ... due to upsets in the conference tournaments resulting in the exclusion of some bubble team for each upset. Mark does not issue true predictions of what the NCAA selection committee will do until after all of the conference tournament results are in. The reasons above are why I wait to release mine.

These projections also do not include last night's loss to Rice ... which is more impactful to the Cajuns' record against the Base RPI Top 25/50/75/100 than it is the RPI itself. While teams will shift, at present the Cajuns have a losing record vs. the Base RPI Top 100 at 11-12. That could fall to 9-11 should South Alabama (at #98) slip out of the Top 100. The Cajuns are at an attractive 8-7 vs. the Base RPI Top 50 ... but that is with SLU (#57) just outside the Top 50 and FAU (#47) just inside. If these reverse, the Cajuns are suddenly 5-9 vs. the Base RPI Top 50.

I should also note that Mark has been including Arizona State as a regional team in his projections. Because Arizona State appealed the postseason sanctions issued to them by the NCAA, they are currently eligible for NCAA postseason play. Should the appeal hearing take place before the selections are made and the appeal is denied, another spot would be opened up for a bubble team. But it looks as if the delay game is going to work for Arizona State and one bubble team will be on the short end of the stick.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Mark has UL projected as the second to last team in the tournament (#63).

Actually, it seems that Mark has UL projected to be the fourth to last team in the tournament (#61). He lists his Last Five In as ...

Last Five In: East Tennessee State, Jacksonville, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana, UC Irvine

While this can be interpreted two different ways, it seems Mark intends ETSU to be the last team selected to the tournament.

Regardless, the points in my post still apply.

Brian

[DieHard1280]

It's definitely time for the Cajuns to "man-up"! They cannot afford the type of conference tourney they usually have, or we may be sweating it come time for the regional selections.