Get ready for the post season

[Cajun90]

The Cajuns have faced the same issue for many seasons now. An RPI that isn't high enough to get into the hosting arena.

I wonder if the Lotief's have studied this issue enough to fully understand it.

I think it is a safe assumption that the softball RPI is very close if not identical to the baseball RPI formula. As we are all aware of by now there is a lot of weight on OWP & OOWP.

So for fun I looked up some of the Cajun's competition. I think I found the problem.

Prarie View 11-34
Rhode Island 7-46
Maine 18-31
Tenn. St. 11-43
SFA 14-36
Grambling 9-26

The SBC isn't looking bad these days but you can't schedule teams like this and expect to end up in the top 25 RPI.

The OWP is horrible. Keep in mind we don't need these teams to be high RPI we just need a decent winning percentage.

[lcitsh]

_ The Cajuns have faced the same issue for many seasons now. An RPI that isn't high enough to get into the hosting arena.

I wonder if the Lotief's have studied this issue enough to fully understand it.

I think it is a safe assumption that the softball RPI is very close if not identical to the baseball RPI formula. As we are all aware of by now there is a lot of weight on OWP & OOWP.

So for fun I looked up some of the Cajun's competition. I think I found the problem.

Prarie View 11-34
Rhode Island 7-46
Maine 18-31
Tenn. St. 11-43
SFA 14-36
Grambling 9-26

The SBC isn't looking bad these days but you can't schedule teams like this and expect to end up in the top 25 RPI.

The OWP is horrible. Keep in mind we don't need these teams to be high RPI we just need a decent winning percentage. _

While the types of teams on the schedule are not much of an aberration, the results are. Arkansas was not expected to be this terrible. We had no control over the teams McNeese brought to their tournament, but we normally don't play this many SWAC teams, who are normally pretty bad. You can't always know what a team will do from one year to the next. Syracuse & Connecticut had good seasons the years they came down here, Rhode Island did not. We replaced the Leadoff Classic with the Citrus Classic and Temple and Long Island, both NCAA tournament teams last year, are shadows of themselves this year.

The Sun Belt is getting better, but even with the improved records, they were not able to counterbalance the poor records of many of our non-conference opponents this year. Last year, the Cajuns faced 12 teams that were in the NCAA tournament, this year there will be at least 6, with a maximum of 8. Mike & Stef have been able to put good schedules together, but they can't make their opponents win.

The OWP is 50% of the rpi base. The OOWP is the same as your overall record, 25%. You can't base your schedule on who your opponents will play. I do expect that whoever they play will have better seasons than the ones they played this year.

[CajunT]

_ The Cajuns have faced the same issue for many seasons now. An RPI that isn't high enough to get into the hosting arena.

I wonder if the Lotief's have studied this issue enough to fully understand it.

I think it is a safe assumption that the softball RPI is very close if not identical to the baseball RPI formula. As we are all aware of by now there is a lot of weight on OWP & OOWP.

So for fun I looked up some of the Cajun's competition. I think I found the problem.

Prarie View 11-34
Rhode Island 7-46
Maine 18-31
Tenn. St. 11-43
SFA 14-36
Grambling 9-26

The SBC isn't looking bad these days but you can't schedule teams like this and expect to end up in the top 25 RPI.

The OWP is horrible. Keep in mind we don't need these teams to be high RPI we just need a decent winning percentage. _

I can assure you the Lotiefs have studied the issue enough to know that they would not get a regional with anything outside a top 10 RPI. They played in three very good tournaments this year and hosted two at home. There are no top 25 programs lining up to come to Lafayette and play the Cajuns. So you schedule programs that are willing to play you in week day games like those you listed. There is literally no budget for softball and they bus to every game including the West Coast. The close programs that have better RPI, like LSU, Houston and Louisiana Tech are not on the schedules this year. LSU won't play UL, UL won't play Tech, Houston and UL agreed not to play this season. Ole Miss was terrible, Miss State won't come to Lafayette and Baylor, Texas A&M and Texas aren't interested in coming to Lafayette either. So now you play SLC and SWAC programs. They are doing everything within their power to run a top 25 program, with no money. Outside of winning a few more games against top 50 RPI programs, there is nothing else they can do with the schedule, within the budget.

[GoneGolfin]

_ While the types of teams on the schedule are not much of an aberration, the results are. Arkansas was not expected to be this terrible.

Arkansas is a good example of a team not to schedule period ... especially if they have a year when they have a decent team. This is because a decent team for Arkansas still does not crack the elite of the SEC. An SEC team with a .500 or just over .500 record will be a challenging game. But the RPI reward will not be there as OWP is so crucial. As for this year's version of the Razorbacks, even though they have an RPI rank of 111, they are an absolute killer for your RPI. You are much better off RPI-wise playing #270 Texas Southern than #111 Arkansas. IOW, a win over Texas Southern will raise your RPI more than a win over #111 Arkansas (in fact, beating Arkansas still lowers your RPI).

In general, it is a good rule not to schedule the middle to bottom teams in the power conferences. The RPI reward is not there and it very well could be a challenging game (you could lose, compounding the problem). So, you did not need to know that Arkansas was going to be as bad as they were. You simply need to have an idea of where they are going to finish in conference (upper tier, middle tier, lower tier) and a guess on overall record (which can be generally based on expected conference finish). #74 South Carolina is another example of a team you would not want to touch ... same with #77 Mississippi State ... and obviously Ole Miss.

The OWP is 50% of the rpi base. The OOWP is the same as your overall record, 25%. You can't base your schedule on who your opponents will play. I do expect that whoever they play will have better seasons than the ones they played this year. _

You need not base your schedule on who your opponents play. Focus on the expected wins and losses of candidate teams for your schedule. It is all about OWP. The rest works itself out.

A little due diligence can go a long way in putting together a schedule if you know the nuances of the RPI. Here are some thoughts I put together last month from a baseball perspective ... which can apply here as well.


Using the RPI to your advantage

Brian

[ulforlife]

Just because LSU "barely" beat McNeese on the road and a top 5 Tennessee swept them at home means UL would crush LSU?

I could say the same thing for UL. Losing to Southern? Losing a series in the SBC? I guess LSU would "crush" UL because of that also, right?

LSU swept number 1 Alabama, defeated Texas, and ended up 4th in the SEC. I think that's pretty good.

Seriously, I doubt either team will host. I thought LSU's RPI would have been high enough to get in the top 16, but it didn't happen. Maybe if they win the SEC tournament, but other than that, no.

UL almost has to have an "under 5 loss" season to host. Their RPI doesn't help them at all.

Who knows what will happen in post season. Either team "could" crush the other. Both teams are capable of beating top teams on any given day.

I have a feeling Houston, LSU, UL, and some other team will be in the same regional - probably with Houston hosting. That would be some interesting stories don't you think?

Nice but LSU isn't going anywhere this post season. Simply not happening

And sadly it will be tough for UL as well because they will probably get sent to a national seed
igeaux.mobi

[Camz]

_ Nice but LSU isn't going anywhere this post season. Simply not happening

And sadly it will be tough for UL as well because they will probably get sent to a national seed
igeaux.mobi _

go to bed sir.

[Cajun90]

While the types of teams on the schedule are not much of an aberration, the results are. Arkansas was not expected to be this terrible. We had no control over the teams McNeese brought to their tournament, but we normally don't play this many SWAC teams, who are normally pretty bad. You can't always know what a team will do from one year to the next. Syracuse & Connecticut had good seasons the years they came down here, Rhode Island did not. We replaced the Leadoff Classic with the Citrus Classic and Temple and Long Island, both NCAA tournament teams last year, are shadows of themselves this year.

The Sun Belt is getting better, but even with the improved records, they were not able to counterbalance the poor records of many of our non-conference opponents this year. Last year, the Cajuns faced 12 teams that were in the NCAA tournament, this year there will be at least 6, with a maximum of 8. Mike & Stef have been able to put good schedules together, but they can't make their opponents win.

The OWP is 50% of the rpi base. The OOWP is the same as your overall record, 25%. You can't base your schedule on who your opponents will play. I do expect that whoever they play will have better seasons than the ones they played this year.

Obviously you can't know for sure what a team will do from year to year but you can follow some general trends. It also doesn't take much to find out who is proposed or expected for a tournament. And just because a team makes post season doesn't mean anything in the context of OWP. There will be Pac-10, Big-12, and SEC teams who make the tourney but don't have great winning percentages and then there will be lowly teams in the weak conferences who steal bids by winning their conference tournament.

My point is that we had a LOT of teams in the OOC schedule that are going to have questionable results most years. We need to purposefully try and accomodate more teams that in most years will provide better results.

For the baseball team Southern has fit that bill. Not a strong RPI team most years but usually with a good winning percentage.

I know there is a list a mile long when working out a schedule and I am just wondering if the winning percentage factor is even on the radar screen?

Rhode Island, Maine, & Tenn. State contributed 240 losses to our OWP!

None of these programs have a history to suggest that they will help our OWP in any given year.

[GoneGolfin]

_ I can assure you the Lotiefs have studied the issue enough to know that they would not get a regional with anything outside a top 10 RPI. They played in three very good tournaments this year and hosted two at home. There are no top 25 programs lining up to come to Lafayette and play the Cajuns.

The point I have been trying to make for a couple of years is that you do not need a bunch of Top 25 games on the schedule. You simply need to play teams with decent records ... and do your best to purge the bad records from your schedule. There are ways to do this ... ways that give you a better chance of having a better schedule.

Some examples of some teams you would not want to schedule ...
#36 San Diego State
#38 Illinois
#44 Penn State
#74 South Carolina
#77 Mississippi State
#111 Arkansas

Some examples of teams that would be good to schedule ...
#148 Northwestern State
#163 Houston Baptist
#206 Marist
#233 Mississippi Valley State
#242 Jackson State
#270 Texas Southern

Replace Prairie View A&M, Arkansas, Rhode Island, Tennessee State, Maine, SFA, and Centenary with the above teams and you have a considerably improved RPI.

Centenary is an absolute killer. Not only do they give you practically the worst OWP conceivable ... with their 5-33 record, their OWP is horrible as well.

So you schedule programs that are willing to play you in week day games like those you listed. There is literally no budget for softball and they bus to every game including the West Coast. The close programs that have better RPI, like LSU, Houston and Louisiana Tech are not on the schedules this year. _

Do not think high RPI teams. Think decent W-L records. A high RPI team may be worse for your schedule than a considerably lower RPI team with a good record (because they played a weak schedule). So, if you are budget restricted, look for teams within reasonable travel distance that are not strong teams (you should get a win) that are likely to rule their conference and have a decent record. Schedule those teams and purge the true dregs of college softball. We have plenty of those this year.

Brian

[Cajun90]

I can assure you the Lotiefs have studied the issue enough to know that they would not get a regional with anything outside a top 10 RPI. They played in three very good tournaments this year and hosted two at home. There are no top 25 programs lining up to come to Lafayette and play the Cajuns. So you schedule programs that are willing to play you in week day games like those you listed. There is literally no budget for softball and they bus to every game including the West Coast. The close programs that have better RPI, like LSU, Houston and Louisiana Tech are not on the schedules this year. LSU won't play UL, UL won't play Tech, Houston and UL agreed not to play this season. Ole Miss was terrible, Miss State won't come to Lafayette and Baylor, Texas A&M and Texas aren't interested in coming to Lafayette either. So now you play SLC and SWAC programs. They are doing everything within their power to run a top 25 program, with no money. Outside of winning a few more games against top 50 RPI programs, there is nothing else they can do with the schedule, within the budget.

T your not tracking here. I understand we played some good teams and good tournaments. It is NOT about scheduling high RPI teams it is instead about not scheduling teams that you know have a history of poor performance. As gonegolfin has shown in another post this is about staying away from the dredges of college softball. It can still be SWAC or SLC programs but not the ones that are always sitting on the bottom of the conference.

I fully understand our financial limitations as well but we had six games that gave us 240 losses. I think we can do a little better than this and not break the bank.

Golfin & I will be out at the Tigue all weekend and over at softball some as well. Hope to see you out there.

[Zeebart21]

_ T your not tracking here. I understand we played some good teams and good tournaments. It is NOT about scheduling high RPI teams it is instead about not scheduling teams that you know have a history of poor performance. As gonegolfin has shown in another post this is about staying away from the dredges of college softball. It can still be SWAC or SLC programs but not the ones that are always sitting on the bottom of the conference.

I fully understand our financial limitations as well but we had six games that gave us 240 losses. I think we can do a little better than this and not break the bank.

Golfin & I will be out at the Tigue all weekend and over at softball some as well, buying beer for all of our podnuhs...and IF you're really nice, we will throw in some roasted peanuts. Hope to see you out there. _

FIFY! Thanks guys, y'all are awesome!!!

Z

[CajunT]

_ T your not tracking here. I understand we played some good teams and good tournaments. It is NOT about scheduling high RPI teams it is instead about not scheduling teams that you know have a history of poor performance. As gonegolfin has shown in another post this is about staying away from the dredges of college softball. It can still be SWAC or SLC programs but not the ones that are always sitting on the bottom of the conference.

I fully understand our financial limitations as well but we had six games that gave us 240 losses. I think we can do a little better than this and not break the bank.

Golfin & I will be out at the Tigue all weekend and over at softball some as well. Hope to see you out there. _

I understand the point clearly, but it takes two to agree to scheduling and you want a balanced schedule of home and away. Some of those programs have to be willing to come to Lamson Park and play the Cajuns. They are not lining up to do so, I'm not sure how the Lotiefs can remedy that without paying more money and that is something the program doesn't have right now.

[BirdofParadise]

_ I understand the point clearly, but it takes two to agree to scheduling and you want a balanced schedule of home and away. Some of those programs have to be willing to come to Lamson Park and play the Cajuns. They are not lining up to do so, I'm not sure how the Lotiefs can remedy that without paying more money and that is something the program doesn't have right now. _

Then you go and raise the money. For years, UL did not fund baseball except for scholarships and coaches salaries. So they went out and raised the money...and wound up in Omaha.

There are tons of excuses about the scheduling for softball.

If McNeese is going to invite the dregs of softball to their tournament....don't go.

And, there's no way you can convince me that Rhode Island and the likes were the only teams willing to come for the tournaments.

We HAVE to schedule better and schedule smarter. If that means working harder to raise money, so be it.