2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[CajunFan3406]

Wel fact is Kyle was right in his predictions but his formula for getting there is still unknown to the masses.

A lot was learned through the scare last Spring. ALot was learned by the experts as well. I suspect every flood is different -so many one time variables- we will always be learning how to predict and handle these situations.

I learned a lot in this thread, thanks for all the links.

Turb, the first prediction that I found by the second coming of Nostradamus was as follows:

As I have seen the turn downward in Vicksburg I am most confident in saying the river will not see 25' in Butte Larose & won't see 10.5' in Morgan City. I am looking for a crest in the neighborhood of 23.5-24.25 feet in Larose, which is high & it will stay pretty high for about three weeks. I am also looking for the river in Morgan City to top out between 9.80' - 10.25'.

What were the actual crests in these areas? Because Nostradamus II said he was "exactly right about everything." How right was he on this?

[CajunRed]

Sooooo...what's new in the flood prediction world?

[Bandwagon King]

Turb, the first prediction that I found by the second coming of Nostradamus was as follows:

What were the actual crests in these areas? Because Nostradamus II said he was "exactly right about everything." How right was he on this?

First of all, the difference between myself & Nostradumbass is I used very sound technique in coming to my conclusions. FYI I was Approximately 3" off on the crest prediction in Butte Larose, which came in a 23.25' which was almost a foot below flood stage & some 6' below the initial crest projections of the Corps of Engineers which now seems to be giving all the credit to the National Weather Service for making a 6' inaccuracy. The final crest in Morgan City was 10.35' which was approximately 1" off from my prediction but almost three feet less than the predictions made by the Corps of Engineers.

I have heard every excuse in the book for how this happened & they are all a LITTLE right, but the main reason the crests came so many days & so many precious inches early, was because the Atchafalaya & Wax Lake outlets brought the water out at a much higher rate than project flodd predicted it would. This was what I was trying to explain when I was looking at the charts. However, everyone on this board was too busy explaining what an idiot I was & not realizing I could see that the hydrostaic effect of the river upstream was being relayed & causing the water to flow much faster than the actual water itself was coming down river. I would imagine in engineering terms, this might not be equivillant to the the discovery of electricity, or the invention of the light bulb, but would be equal to the invention of the telephone.

It means that by proving that the hydraulic effect of water travels much faster than the water itself that tsunamis could actually be tracked with a much much greater degree of accuracy & give people much much earlier warnings of imminant danger, as well as flood predictions being made much sooner with a much greater degree of accuracy. This could save millions or even hundreds of missions of dollars as well as thousands of lives.

[CajunRed]

The drought.

[CharlieK]

This is a discovery. The water was flowing faster than it was flowing. How did everyone miss that?

[Bandwagon King]

This is a discovery. The water was flowing faster than it was flowing. How did everyone miss that?

This is the problem with you Charlie. You think everyone who invents or discovers something has to have a university degree. History has proven that this kind of thinking is why mankind was stuck in an era of time called the DARK AGES for so long. Now, back to the importance of Hydraulic or hydrostatic transmission, it was proven through the study of the river level charts that the hydraulic, or hydrostatic effects of the river flow was being transmitted downstream much faster than the actual amount of water flow was moving. The river downstream was in effect seeing this transmission of flow several days early & reacting by increasing the flow downstream days early.

This is the biggest reason why the river crested days earlier & several feet lower than scheduled. What caused this effect to occur? I submit it was the difference in the way the gates & the timing of opening the gates this time as opposed to the 1973 flood. It gave the lower part of the river time to sense the hydraulic increase & react accordingly. There should be a theorum, axiom, or pysical law of flow made for this, but I don't know that anyone with your degree has studied what I'm saying enough YET to realize this? If you spent one tenth the time trying to understand that you do scoffing, you would see that I definitely have an idea that at least needs researching. As it is you are telling me that I used tea leaves or some other form of vodoo to come up with scientifically sound predictions that were proven to be 95+% accurate.

[CharlieK]

This is the problem with you Charlie. You think everyone who invents or discovers something has to have a university degree. .

Though I appreciate you telling me what my problem is, I think nothing of the sort. You seem to be the one obsessed with who has what degree. I don't think you are wrong in your analysis because you don't have a degree in this, I think you are wrong because you are wrong. Not about your stage guesses (i never really commented on those) but rather about the mechanics of how it works. I refuse to argue with you about that anymore because you have conviced yourself you are right, and truely I do not care. But, I never degraded anyone because of a lack of a degree (in my life) and I certaintly didn't start with you. If you have a problem with engineers, that's not my fault. I work and have worked with many talented people without degrees and many useless ones with them....and vice versa.

By the way, my degree is not in this either, and I never claimed it was. My degree is in mechanical engineering, and my job experience is in tool design. I defer to the many other experts in this field, degreed or not. You are not an expert, sorry, and that has nothing to do with a paper on the wall.

I propose we drop this counterproductive arguement.

[HelmutVII]

bump just in case you were interested.