2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[CharlieK]

_ The only people who would be spared flooding to their homes are people who live along Couteau Ridge as well as any other elevations above I'd estimate somewhere around 27' above MSL.

Check your calculations, mine say 27.38625' above MSL. But that's only if Dexter Aucoin is kicked off the team. Otherwise the collective mass of Cajuns exhaling in relief would force the water back down to around 25.375852'

[2 ul 0105]

_ If a Cat.3 storm were to strike anywhere between the Sabine river & the mouth of the Atchafalaya within the next month the results WOULD be catastrophic. A storm surge that would normally stop somewhere around Hwy 14 could potentially be pushed up above I-10 & certainly would be pushed up as far as Hwy. 90. where the train tracks run. The only people who would be spared flooding to their homes are people who live along Couteau Ridge as well as any other elevations above I'd estimate somewhere around 27' above MSL.

I'm interested in this could you post your calculations on how you came up with 27'. I'd also like to see all charts and any other scientific evidence you have associated with this.

[gorcajun]

It is expected that rivers levels will be high until July.


Turbine do you have enough server space to cover this discuss til then.

If not, another fundraiser.

[Bob Van Antwerp]

_ Turbine, I wish to post this information to you & any other open minded knowledge seeking people who may be out there in the minority listening to me. When you & Chop who posted right underneath you on this subject, I was evasive. I did not want to think about it, but since then I have thought about it.

There are those who want to keep flooding the basin more than necessary just because they look at it as a drainage ditch, sewer system, whatever. I can tell you why you are absolutely 100% correct in your assessment of the potential danger in this situation & why we should be getting rid of this water into the GOM as fast as possible & not letting it remain in the basin any longer than it has to.

My earlier reply to your post was conditions were not favorable for an anitcyclonic build up in the GOM right now. That does not mean they can not be favorable somewhere else.

If a Cat.3 storm were to strike anywhere between the Sabine river & the mouth of the Atchafalaya within the next month the results WOULD be catastrophic. A storm surge that would normally stop somewhere around Hwy 14 could potentially be pushed up above I-10 & certainly would be pushed up as far as Hwy. 90. where the train tracks run. The only people who would be spared flooding to their homes are people who live along Couteau Ridge as well as any other elevations above I'd estimate somewhere around 27' above MSL.

The river is flowing all its water to the west now when it gets into the bays & marshes. Those bays & marshes are swelling & will continue to stay swollen unless the water is evacuated ASAP. The fastest way to do this is DOWN THE RIVER. Every inch the water goes up in the Basin is another 3-4 days it will take to get the Atchafalaya level back closer to normal. As it gets closer to normal the blessed flow rate slows down & allows it to evacuate to the GOM without backing up nearly as much. Since they have sunk the barge into Bayou Shane the river is now acting like a syphon & causing the levels in Bayou Shane Lake Polurde & points north & east to actually drop in level.

This means all the water being evacuated out of the Atchafalaya is coming west into lower west St. Mary, Iberia, Vermillion, & so on to the west all the way to the state line. The Intracoastal canal as well as other waterways will attempt to distribute the water, but the longer this situation keeps up the more danger we are in. Before any self seving brain surgeons on here tell me how wack I am, you better check your ego at the door. Don't tell me it can't happen this way, because it already has happened this way. Has anyone ever heard of Hurrican Audrey? Check your callender & tell me it won't happen.

For those folks who told me I need to look at the big picture, my response would be look at the BIG, BIG picture. If there is 0.0001 per cent chance of this happening, we better be doing all we can to avoid the scenario. That is unless you want the SWAMP to take on a whole new meaning. _

Mr. BandwagonKing,
I have been directed to this site by LTG Edgar Jadwin, one of my commanders. After spending most of my day reading through this discussion I would like to extend you an invitation to work for the Corps of Engineers. Its seems that you have a vast understanding of the lower Mississippi River Drainage Basin and you would be of great value to our team as we seem to be incompetent of performing our duties. I know that you are very busy as you seem to have a vast knowledge of ever subject, but again we would be very gracious if you could be of assistance. Please email me at Mr.BandwagonKingknowseverythingabout...usace.army.mil

Sincerely,

Lieutenant General Robert L. Van Antwerp Jr.
Chief of Engineers
Army Corps of Engineers

[wcd35]

ROFL

[USL99Alum]

Dust off your resume BWK


http://www.wwl.com/Feds-start-to-close-Morganza/9912998

[CharlieK]

_ Dust off your resume BWK


http://www.wwl.com/Feds-start-to-close-Morganza/9912998 _

Not quite. The key sentance with relation to Dr. King's proclimations.......

The action to start closing the bays comes after reduced flow-rates on Mississippi at Red River Landing.

[CajunRed]

Regardless...that part will be ignored...and we are now set for another 150 pages on this thread. :-)

igeaux.mobi

[Cajun90]

ROFL

I'll offer up a second.....

but we are going to hear a never ending I told you so about this because the Corp has now closed three gates at Morganza.

[HelmutVII]

_ I knew they were flowing through the power plant. The low sill still operates 24/7 ? _

Operating doesn't necessarily mean flowing. The ORCS controls the flow of the Mississippi river into the Atchafalya on a 30/70 basis. It can control it by being open all the way or partially closed depending on the flow. Doing so means it is operating as designed and is doing it 24/7 since it was completed almost 90 years ago. If it didn't operate as designed 24/7 the the Mississippi would change course, which it hasn't.

[HelmutVII]

_ The hurry to close the gates? There are several businesses that I deal with who have had to pack up & move out due to this. There are a lot of people who live in their camps & have homes in Butte Larose. The Atchafalaya has crested & is going down from here. That is proof that the Mississippi & Atchafalaya together can handle the flow the upper river are putting out & it is time to start lowering more flow into the basin than is needed. I am not going to get into flow rates again with you because you are wrong. The water transference you are saying is going to happen has already happened.

That is why we have an extra ten feet of water in the basin now that wasn't there 10 days ago. I don't mean to sound disrespectful, but when you ask a question like that, it shows me you are full of it & you don't know what is going on. I have put up with the insults from self appointed experts on this sight for days now & the whole time I have asked for numbers to plug into the formula to calcualte flow rates & I haven't gotten a single one. As for being able to see the gates opening at the nine hour mark behind them being opened upstream, I was damn sure able to see the last three openings & not only see the openings I was able to tell how much time it took to lift each gate & how long between as they lifted each gate. I couldn't go back any further than Monday night before because Monday night was when I made the discovery & the charts won't let you go further back than that on the sight. That's right. I could count the gates & the amount of time it took to lift each one.

I have been told what a crack pot I am & how wrong I am...I was wrong. I was wrong because I told you people days ago that the Atchafalaya would crest at 23.5'-24.25'. I thought it would crest earlier & lower, but I was scared of looking stupid so I gave myself an extra 1/2' of breathing room. The Atchafalaya at Butte Larose crested yesterday at the very time evacuation orders were being executed for residents to leave. If you don't believe this then go check the charts.

This means that the river there isn't coming up anymore. Not one more inch. No matter what you say. You've been wrong sir. For you to make a statement like that with such triviality that is affecting people's lives is even more wrong. I'll state another fact on here right now, because this is going to be my last post on the subject. ........


I've been told to educate myself & that's exactly what I did. Anyone checking this thread out for the first time can look at it, check the facts after the fact & ask yourseves am I going to listen to people who make me feel like I'm in their good hands, or are they going to look at the facts & make decisions based on knowledge of the truth. Rant out.

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/Water...new/layout.cfm _

My My. I figured you had a motive for wanting the gates closed. If you buddy had to close well that's the price he pays for locating his business where it floods. Maybe he should consider moving. I have zero sympathy for cases like that.

You wanted a formula, I gave you one, go to post 381 in this thread where I discussed the Mannings formula. That is the fundamental formula that is used in the RAS computer program. And yes it's all based on flow rates.

So far as the Basin being a floodway, well that's exactly what it is and anybody that has an interest in the floodway whether for business, pleasure or for a home does so at their own risk because happenings like this are to be expected and there is no guarantee that it won't happen again next year.

While the river may be going down here there is another crest, (though not as high as the previous) forming upstream the predictions go only to June 9 for Memphis because that's as far out as they predict. We will see another crest at Morganza probably mid June. Water will continue to be high (above flood stage) until the stations upstream drop below flood stage. (Flood stage is not a normal river stage.)

ORCS is still flowing 627,000 cfs which is no small amount and should continue to flow at high rates for some time. According to the Corps of Engineers, Morganza was flowing 117,000 CFS with 17 gates or roughly 6900 cfs per gate. They have closed only 3 so far (or 20700 cfs) which is only a small percentage of the total. If the 1.5 Million cfs rate holds, and it probably will, they will probably continue to close one or two a day.

The Mississippi river drains 41% of the area of the 48 contiguous states. Every drop of rain that falls in that area has the potential to be runoff. Every toilet that is flushed in that area eventually discharges into the Mississippi river. Every parking lot, home, factory, drive way road that is built in that area increases the runoff. Many towns are finally requiring storm water management plans that reduce the impact of that increased runoff. But, usually those plans are designed for a 10 year event. What we have seen, rain wise, this year is probably more extreme then a 10 year event and we have seen the result. As development in the Mississippi River basin continues I would suspect that these events would become more common.

[CharlieK]

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/morganza.asp

Helumt, why if gates are closed did discharge rate go up?