2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[Bandwagon King]

_ They will open more gates if the flow rates dictate it. Period. None of what you are saying is relavent to why they open the gates or not. _

Would you mind showing us the numbers to plug in to get within, say 100,000 CFS of the flow rate so we can then know at which critical point they will be forced to open the flood gates & evacuate the town of Butte Larose.

I mean I can give you the formula. It's been quoted adnausium on this thread.

Velocity X area= ?
Just plug those numbers in & we'll all know exactly what the flow rate is & we won't have to guess anymore.

[CharlieK]

_ Would you mind showing us the numbers to plug in to get within, say 100,000 CFS of the flow rate so we can then know at which critical point they will be forced to open the flood gates & evacuate the town of Butte Larose.
I mean I can give you the formula. It's been quoted adnausium on this thread.

Velocity X area= ?
Just plug those numbers in & we'll all know exactly what the flow rate is & we won't have to guess anymore. _

What in the name of all that is holy are you talking about?

It's been stated MANY times here and elsewhere that when the flow exceeds 1.5 million cfs at red river landing Morganza is opened (at whatever level they deem necessary to control the flow rates).

I am making NO guesses, wild or otherwise. YOU are.

Watch that Hydrill though, don't let your annulis pressure get too high.

[jumboragncajun]

_

Kyle, what I interpet Mr./Dr./Prof Helmut's statement to be is simply that there is still a lot more water coming. I also noticed that as any professional he cautiously avoided making a prediction, estimation, or projection of anything due to the numerous unknowns while looking at the larger picture.

From your gages:
This first graph does show a local downward trend at the Red River Landing:
The second graph is THE SAME GRAPH from a larger scale view indicating the river is still way above flood stage, and local movements are still very small and quite a bit of volume needs to be discharged still. This is typical up the River. As it stands now, there is still about 100k more CFS coming into the basin than what is leaving. As long as that is the case, it will continue to rise. As the basin rises, the differential head becomes smaller and the discharge into the basin reduces.threfore, the possibility still exists that a gate may need to be opened.

[Bandwagon King]

_ What in the name of all that is holy are you talking about?

It's been stated MANY times here and elsewhere that when the flow exceeds 1.5 million cfs at red river landing Morganza is opened (at whatever level they deem necessary to control the flow rates).

I am making NO guesses, wild or otherwise. YOU are.

Watch that Hydrill though, don't let your annulis pressure get too high. _

I am asking how are you, me, the corps or anybody else short of the mind of Allmighty God going to figure that number out to any degree of accuracy & explain why it was necessary to kill thousands of animals & flood out the town of Butte Larose.

It's simple. Velocity= the rate at which the river is flowing in MPH or KPH.
multiplied by the height & width of the river = ?

You can't figure it out because it is too astronomical to figure out with 100% accuracy. It is too astronomical to figure out with 95% accuracy. 90%? maybe. Until then I'll choose to believe that someone somewhere understands that the charts don't lie & aint pulling the trigger unless they are forced to.

[jumboragncajun]

_ Would you mind providing us with an example of the flow rate calculation sir?
I mean I have been accused of being pompas & arrogant pulling stuff from where the sun doesn't shine & making wild guesses that somehow keep coming to fruition.

Would you mind showing us the numbers to plug in to get within, say 100,000 CFS of the flow rate so we can then know at which critical point they will be forced to open the flood gates & evacuate the town of Butte Larose.
I mean I can give you the formula. It's been quoted adnausium on this thread.

Velocity X area= ?
Just plug those numbers in & we'll all know exactly what the flow rate is & we won't have to guess anymore. _

Q=VA does not BEGIN to cover it with open channel flow. For the sake of time, you do some research on Manning's formula that accounts for the wetted perimeter, bed slopes, etc Helmut previously gave an explanation of the how the velocity changes within the section and at different stages.

[jumboragncajun]

To make a prediction about specific levels in a storage basin without knowing the volume in, the volume out, the volume of the basin, or the tailwater conditions is nothing more than a guess. That plain and simple.

It would be like me watching a Cajuns football practice for the first time ever, and based on that information proclaiming that the Saints would win the superbowl.
And as luck would have it, the saints win the superbowl, and I proclaim myself as the "Best football prognasticator in the history of the universe".(which I know you Kyle would take offense to because I stole that QUOTE from him).

The TW is the brakes, more or less, on how fast it can leave. (controlling the elevation) If you guess at that, you are guessing at hydraulics. PERIOD. If you NEGLECT it, you have no business making an projection. It would be one thing if you made your prediction for shiggles. But you demeaned anyone else that had a different opinion than you because you had a hard scientific number, in your opinion.

[Bandwagon King]

If you show me some hard numbers to back up your assertions, I will in no doubt come to you and tip my cap & say" boy you really schooled me on this issue. Thanks for putting up with my hard-headed obstinance & teaching me something." Because that's the way I was raised.

Until then, if the charts are saying the river is going down in level & there is a good chance that the basin won't have to be filled to the brim to make the world's largest above ground pool, I'm going to stick to my little old charts & say that by Friday they will be announcing the closing of gates, if not sooner.

[CharlieK]

_ If you show me some hard numbers to back up your assertions, I will in no doubt come to you and tip my cap & say" boy you really schooled me on this issue. Thanks for putting up with my hard-headed obstinance & teaching me something." Because that's the way I was raised.

Until then, if the charts are saying the river is going down in level & there is a good chance that the basin won't have to be filled to the brim to make the world's largest above ground pool, I'm going to stick to my little old charts & say that by Friday they will be announcing the closing of gates, if not sooner. _

You mean like the HARD NUMBERS I provided you refuting your ridiculous assertion that the ORCS could not flow more than it was designed for?

I never made ANY prediction about if they would open more or less gates. Not once. I only said the reasons they choose to open and close them are not due to what you are saying. Hell you admited yourself you know nothing about the near failure of ORCS, that alone removes any credibility you have on this subject. You are making guesses, just like 99% of stock day traders. Using limited recent results to predict future returns. We would all be better off flipping a coin as listening to you as you have no real knowledge.

Some more hard numbers.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/morganza.asp

Note the reason for opening the spillway, and the ** notes under the chart, stating exactly what jumbo said.

As for Helmut et al, thanks for all of the keen insight. I have learned a lot from reading your posts.

[Bandwagon King]

_ Moron.Imbecile.Simpleton.Halfwit.Hillbilly.Redneck.Sister______.Have I covered all the bases? _

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/morganza.asp

The decision to open the Morganza Floodway relies on current and projected river flows and levee conditions, river currents and potential effects on navigation and revetments, extended rain and stage forecasts, and the duration of high river stages. When river flows at the Red River Landing are predicted to reach 1.5 million cfs and rising, the Corps considers opening the Morganza Floodway.

This is from the link you posted Charlie. I appreciate the link. According to what I'm reading the corps "considers" opening the floodway when the the predicted flow reaches 1.5 MMCFS. It does not say that it is the only consideration at all. River flows, LEVEE CONDITIONS, extended rain & RIVER STAGE FORECASTS & THE DURATION OF HIGH RIVER STAGES are THE determining factors in operating the gates. Thank you & good night.

[CharlieK]

_ http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/morganza.asp

The decision to open the Morganza Floodway relies on current and projected river flows and levee conditions, river currents and potential effects on navigation and revetments, extended rain and stage forecasts, and the duration of high river stages. When river flows at the Red River Landing are predicted to reach 1.5 million cfs and rising, the Corps considers opening the Morganza Floodway.

This is from the link you posted Charlie. I appreciate the link. According to what I'm reading the corps "considers" opening the floodway when the the predicted flow reaches 1.5 MMCFS. It does not say that it is the only consideration at all. River flows, LEVEE CONDITIONS, extended rain & RIVER STAGE FORECASTS & THE DURATION OF HIGH RIVER STAGES are THE determining factors in operating the gates. Thank you & good night. _

Yes it all matters. And they don't consider opening till the flow reaches 1.5 million cfs. The flow is what drives the rest of it. What again is your point? I never said the corps didn't watch the stages, I said they don't make decisions based upon the reasons you were stating.

Here is what you said: "As of this point, looking at the level in Baton Rouge going down now at the same rate that it is coming up in Butte Larose, I would respectfully disagree that more gates should be or need to be open. This would simply exasterbate a problem which appears totally avoidable at this time."

WRONG, this will not determine if they open or close more gates.

Wait, here I go again getting sucked in by this guy. I forgot I gave up.

You keep watching your river stage charts if it makes you happy.

[Bandwagon King]

_ Yes it all matters. And they don't consider opening till the flow reaches 1.5 million cfs. The flow is what drives the rest of it. What again is your point? I never said the corps didn't watch the stages, I said they don't make decisions based upon the reasons you were stating.

Here is what you said: "As of this point, looking at the level in Baton Rouge going down now at the same rate that it is coming up in Butte Larose, I would respectfully disagree that more gates should be or need to be open. This would simply exasterbate a problem which appears totally avoidable at this time."

WRONG, this will not determine if they open or close more gates.

Wait, here I go again getting sucked in by this guy. I forgot I gave up.

You keep watching your river stage charts if it makes you happy. _

That's because they probably don't ESTIMATE the river flow to be 1.5 MMCFS until the river gets to some rediculous height like 62' at the Red River landing. Since river stage height is one of the necessary parts of the formula I have been asking for all day by my fellow geniuses. Let's just put that in there for shiggles & say I've now given you the formula & the height. Now can I get someone to give me a hard number on the flow rate & not something they are polly parroting from the TV or internet?

The very reasons I was stating are exactly why they won't open another gate. The river is in check & going down. The river stage forecast is for a steeper downward curve over the next several days. The levees are holding fine as far I've heard, & if some dummy doesn't let an unmanned barge blow into the levee somewhere we'll be ok just the way it is. And when the river goes down enough at Red River landing, the Corps will then say " The river is now flowing at a rate of -1.5 MMCFS & we can now begin closing the gates.

Can I get an AMEN?

[HelmutVII]

Wow I go to work for a day and all this happens. I have several things to say but I don't know where to start so I will make it simple.

1) During the course of this thread I was attempting to explain things in a manner that someone with a nontechnical background could understand. I hesitated to mention Hydraulic Grade line but I felt I had to in order explain some of the concepts. I really did not want to get into the details of how the computer programs work and the theory behind it as I don't think it could be understood by all. I did not want to mention variable roughness coefficients, hydraulic radius, wetted perimeter, energy grade lines etc etc. Not to mention raising a number to the 2/3 power. In addition trying to explain what a flood stage is, whether a river is in or out of it's banks or even keeping track of whether a station has a local zero or is referenced to NAVD88 and is adjusted to the latest GEOID.

2) Mr. King I wouldn't be going anywhere to apply for a job as a river hydraulicists. I suggest you do a Google search for "HEC RAS" (Hydraulic Engineering Center - River Analysis System) and download the manual. Study that manual and EDUCATE YOURSELF so you can start to get a grasp of the intricacies of what is going on here. Because, by your posts today, I can see that you really don't know ------- you really really really don't know. Don't ask me to explain it either, because the concepts that are presented in the manual are taught in the Senior year of most Civil Engineering Schools. And why is that --- because you will need every bit of mathematics, physics and concepts taught in lower level engineering courses in the three previous years to fully grasp the situation. Then you will have to work at it for several years for it to really mature in your mind and be confident enough to make sound engineering judgements. I can assure you that the Corps of Engineers DOES NOT make their decisions on river stages alone and they use many more decision making tools than could be listed here - including sound engineering judgements.

Dominique D. Naomi, P.E.

[Bandwagon King]

_ Wow I go to work for a day and all this happens. I have several things to say but I don't know where to start so I will make it simple.

1) During the course of this thread I was attempting to explain things in a manner that someone with a nontechnical background could understand. I hesitated to mention Hydraulic Grade line but I felt I had to in order explain some of the concepts. I really did not want to get into the details of how the computer programs work and the theory behind it as I don't think it could be understood by all. I did not want to mention variable roughness coefficients, hydraulic radius, wetted perimeter, energy grade lines etc etc. Not to mention raising a number to the 2/3 power. In addition trying to explain what a flood stage is, whether a river is in or out of it's banks or even keeping track of whether a station has a local zero or is referenced to NAVD88 and is adjusted to the latest GEOID.

2) Mr. King I wouldn't be going anywhere to apply for a job as a river hydraulicists. I suggest you do a Google search for "HEC RAS" (Hydraulic Engineering Center - River Analysis System) and download the manual. Study that manual and EDUCATE YOURSELF so you can start to get a grasp of the intricacies of what is going on here. Because, by your posts today, I can see that you really don't know ------- you really really really don't know. Don't ask me to explain it either, because the concepts that are presented in the manual are taught in the Senior year of most Civil Engineering Schools. And why is that --- because you will need every bit of mathematics, physics and concepts taught in lower level engineering courses in the three previous years to fully grasp the situation. Then you will have to work at it for several years for it to really mature in your mind and be confident enough to make sound engineering judgements. I can assure you that the Corps of Engineers DOES NOT make their decisions on river stages alone and they use many more decision making tools than could be listed here - including sound engineering judgements.

Dominique D. Naomi, P.E. _

That's all nice. Now can you please sir use the formula, plug in some numbers & give me some kind of "estimated flow rate". I've already been insulted by everyone else on here, but the one thing you braniacs can't do is tell me I'm wrong & prove it. I can prove I'm right. You guys can insult me 95 ways to Sunday, but as of yet they haven't had to open any more flood gates & by this weekend when they announce they're closing some if not earlier, I guess you people will find new ways to insult me & tell me how screwed up I am, but as of yet no one not anybody on this site has had the stones to use the magic formula to show me the magic flow rate.

Now until someone does I would apprecitate it if you would quit showing your mastery of insultation & stick to the point at hand, which is why is everybody in such a hurry to sink Butte Larose & drown Bambi in the process?

[cajunhawk]

_ That's all nice. Now can you please sir use the formula, plug in some numbers & give me some kind of "estimated flow rate". I've already been insulted by everyone else on here, but the one thing you braniacs can't do is tell me I'm wrong & prove it. I can prove I'm right. You guys can insult me 95 ways to Sunday, but as of yet they haven't had to open any more flood gates & by this weekend when they announce they're closing some if not earlier, I guess you people will find new ways to insult me & tell me how screwed up I am, but as of yet no one not anybody on this site has had the stones to use the magic formula to show me the magic flow rate.

Now until someone does I would apprecitate it if you would quit showing your mastery of insultation & stick to the point at hand, which is why is everybody in such a hurry to sink Butte Larose & drown Bambi in the process? _

Would you walk up to a lawyer at a hearing and tell him he is wrong on Brown vs. The Board of Education? Would you interrupt a surgeon in the middle of an operation to let him now his surgery methods are wrong? Would you stop a scientist in the middle of an experiment to let him know his scientific method is stupid and boring? A normal person would not. Yet you stand up and brazenly tell these professional men that they are not only wrong, but too stupid to prove you wrong. Have you ever thought that the reason they could not prove you wrong.is because you were never right to begin with? Just wondering.

[jumboragncajun]

_ That's all nice. Now can you please sir use the formula, plug in some numbers & give me some kind of "estimated flow rate". I've already been insulted by everyone else on here, but the one thing you braniacs can't do is tell me I'm wrong & prove it. I can prove I'm right. You guys can insult me 95 ways to Sunday, but as of yet they haven't had to open any more flood gates & by this weekend when they announce they're closing some if not earlier, I guess you people will find new ways to insult me & tell me how screwed up I am, but as of yet no one not anybody on this site has had the stones to use the magic formula to show me the magic flow rate.

Now until someone does I would apprecitate it if you would quit showing your mastery of insultation & stick to the point at hand, which is why is everybody in such a hurry to sink Butte Larose & drown Bambi in the process? _

As stated previously. Not one person on here is stating they will open more gates. We are just saying that a statement/decision/prediction cannot be made on river levels alone.

About your formula: As I stated earlier, educate yourself on the basics of manning's formula. That is precisely what Helmut is referring to as well. That is the starting point. STARTING POINT!! If you are still interested after that, I would suggest you audit CIVE 434, which spends an entire semester on what to do after that.