2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[Cajun Monkee]

Wait. The Mississippi changed course? Are the bridges still standing? I have to go to NOLA in a couple of weeks.

[Bandwagon King]

Jeez, King, YOU said it changed course, no me. It did not, not technically, hypothetically, kinda, or otherwise. Even with the all the flood gates open, in "Project Flood" the combined Atchafalaya and Wax lake outlet are the same as the combined Missississippi and Bonnet Carre outlets. And we did not get near project flood, and the Corps did not open all the gates. Even if they had, changing course means changing course. It does not mean whatever YOU decide it means today.

Look, I never intended to "make fun of you", I assumed from your numerous confronational posts, that you could take a little back and forth. If I crossed the line I'm sorry. However you were wrong, are wrong, and calling me foolish and telling me to shut up doesn't change that.

By the way, here is a flow map of "project flood". Remember we were no where near project flood, and the corps never opened all the gates. So I doubt the Atchafalya at any point during that 2011 flood flowed more than the Missisissippi.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mi...River_flow.gif

I'm not TELLING you to SHUT UP, I'm advising you to quit making yourself look bad. Because there was a near doomsday prediction predicated on events which did not not occur. I am explaining why those events did not occur in layman's terms & I am going further in stating that those events can not occur & the history of what happened this past spring proved that. Now you are going to fall back on your knowledge of the workings of "project flood", but you don't seem to realize why "project flood" worked so well. & you better go back & check the flow rate numbers before you dispute what I'm saying.

According to the last numbers I saw, the flow rates were both the highest that had ever passed from Vicksburg & the flow rates were higher between the lower Atchafalaya & Wax Lake Outlets than they were at the Mississippi below the flood gates. This should be considered a tchnical rerouting of the river, because it means more water was running another way. I am telling you now, that's why non of the forecasts that Helmut kept refering to ever came to fruition.

That is also why they closed the gates in 28 days? Instead of keeping them open for the whole summer. I wasn't there, but I would imagine it didn't matter if they left them open or not, because it's kind of hard for water to travel up & over the bottomn part of the gate. It also didn't matter if they opened any more gates or not once the river levels achieved an equilibrium. There wasn't going to be any more or less flow than the routes were allowing to come. This is more information which wasn't shared because no one realized that that result would occur. Until then everything was theory. Once the equilibrium was reached & the Atchafalaya began to crest, It was church for the Spring flood. I knew this based upon studying the levels, yet you still want to argue this in spite of the facts.

Furtermore, the reason why they didn't have to open more gates is because the Atchafalaya & Calumet cut were carrying a hell of a lot more water than were previously being figured. Of course, had anyone been paying attention to the river levels they would have figured this out days earlier. That is what I was trying to tell everyone which was an extremely obvious signal of what was going on, which no one seemed to be paying attention to. because everyone on this site was trying so hard to convince me how much I din't know instead of looking at the facts.

According to these results & understanding how close the river was to coming completely overtopping the levees in Arkansas & Tennessee, I can say without a doubt, that as long as this river structure remains in tact in its present condition & is properly maintained, the doomsday scenario of the lower Mississippi River ever coming out of its banks & rerouting itself below or at the river control structures is a physical impossibility, unless there is a flood rivaling the days of Noah & the upper central United States is completely covered in water for thousands & thousands of square miles beyond anything in the recorded history of the United States.

[CharlieK]

Good lord. Never mind. I AM an idiot for continuing this. Remain ignorant if it pleases you.

[Bandwagon King]

Good lord. Never mind. I AM an idiot for continuing this. Remain ignorant if it pleases you.

So that's your best reply? It seems the problem for you is I didn't remain ignorant. I studied pretty damn hard & figured out how to use the charts to predict future events downstream, but because I don't have a Phd. by my name, it isn't impressive enough. I will rest in the knowledge of knowing that those who are in control of this thing also know that what I stated here is true. In time they will eventually publish the lessons learned from this event or prevented event & they will back up what I have stated on this thread. Of that I am certain.

[CajunRed]

Holy Mother of God...my head is breaking!

[CajunDreDog]

Someone please make this thread just die!!! Shoot it, murder it, something...

Die, die, die, die.....

[CajunFan3406]

Wel fact is Kyle was right in his predictions but his formula for getting there is still unknown to the masses.

A lot was learned through the scare last Spring. ALot was learned by the experts as well. I suspect every flood is different -so many one time variables- we will always be learning how to predict and handle these situations.

I learned a lot in this thread, thanks for all the links.

Turb, the first prediction that I found by the second coming of Nostradamus was as follows:

As I have seen the turn downward in Vicksburg I am most confident in saying the river will not see 25' in Butte Larose & won't see 10.5' in Morgan City. I am looking for a crest in the neighborhood of 23.5-24.25 feet in Larose, which is high & it will stay pretty high for about three weeks. I am also looking for the river in Morgan City to top out between 9.80' - 10.25'.

What were the actual crests in these areas? Because Nostradamus II said he was "exactly right about everything." How right was he on this?

[CajunRed]

Sooooo...what's new in the flood prediction world?

[Bandwagon King]

Turb, the first prediction that I found by the second coming of Nostradamus was as follows:

What were the actual crests in these areas? Because Nostradamus II said he was "exactly right about everything." How right was he on this?

First of all, the difference between myself & Nostradumbass is I used very sound technique in coming to my conclusions. FYI I was Approximately 3" off on the crest prediction in Butte Larose, which came in a 23.25' which was almost a foot below flood stage & some 6' below the initial crest projections of the Corps of Engineers which now seems to be giving all the credit to the National Weather Service for making a 6' inaccuracy. The final crest in Morgan City was 10.35' which was approximately 1" off from my prediction but almost three feet less than the predictions made by the Corps of Engineers.

I have heard every excuse in the book for how this happened & they are all a LITTLE right, but the main reason the crests came so many days & so many precious inches early, was because the Atchafalaya & Wax Lake outlets brought the water out at a much higher rate than project flodd predicted it would. This was what I was trying to explain when I was looking at the charts. However, everyone on this board was too busy explaining what an idiot I was & not realizing I could see that the hydrostaic effect of the river upstream was being relayed & causing the water to flow much faster than the actual water itself was coming down river. I would imagine in engineering terms, this might not be equivillant to the the discovery of electricity, or the invention of the light bulb, but would be equal to the invention of the telephone.

It means that by proving that the hydraulic effect of water travels much faster than the water itself that tsunamis could actually be tracked with a much much greater degree of accuracy & give people much much earlier warnings of imminant danger, as well as flood predictions being made much sooner with a much greater degree of accuracy. This could save millions or even hundreds of missions of dollars as well as thousands of lives.

[CajunRed]

The drought.

[CharlieK]

This is a discovery. The water was flowing faster than it was flowing. How did everyone miss that?

[Bandwagon King]

This is a discovery. The water was flowing faster than it was flowing. How did everyone miss that?

This is the problem with you Charlie. You think everyone who invents or discovers something has to have a university degree. History has proven that this kind of thinking is why mankind was stuck in an era of time called the DARK AGES for so long. Now, back to the importance of Hydraulic or hydrostatic transmission, it was proven through the study of the river level charts that the hydraulic, or hydrostatic effects of the river flow was being transmitted downstream much faster than the actual amount of water flow was moving. The river downstream was in effect seeing this transmission of flow several days early & reacting by increasing the flow downstream days early.

This is the biggest reason why the river crested days earlier & several feet lower than scheduled. What caused this effect to occur? I submit it was the difference in the way the gates & the timing of opening the gates this time as opposed to the 1973 flood. It gave the lower part of the river time to sense the hydraulic increase & react accordingly. There should be a theorum, axiom, or pysical law of flow made for this, but I don't know that anyone with your degree has studied what I'm saying enough YET to realize this? If you spent one tenth the time trying to understand that you do scoffing, you would see that I definitely have an idea that at least needs researching. As it is you are telling me that I used tea leaves or some other form of vodoo to come up with scientifically sound predictions that were proven to be 95+% accurate.