2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[CharlieK]

_ You're right, there is an OP plan and if we want to change it we have to get a deveation granted, and if we don't there are enough people looking and hell would be paid!!

I'm not sure what the OP plan actually states, but it is tied in to the 1.5 mil cfs flowing past Red River landing.

Also, the overbank structure is not being used at this time. There is leakage through the needles, but it is not being operated. _

Biged, Helmut, Civil.....I had heard somewhere but can't find it that it is some engineers opinion that the structure (the original low sill and overbank) were put in a less than optimum spot in the river. They stated that this was done for economic reasons. Not much else was explained. Is this based on it being on the inside bend of the river and if so why would this be less than optimum?

[NewsCopy]

Government inspections must take place before many homeowners can return, a process that could take a week. Story: Cajuns to blame for their own flood misery? Not so fast State officials say 1,664 primary residences have been evacuated, but it's not clear ...

The rest of the story

[HelmutVII]

_ BigEd...for anyone out there who doesn't know or understand the full history of the three rivers and the structures that regulate them, THIS is the best piece I've ever seen. I thought I knew much of the above. Turns out that I knew way less than I thought. This should be read by all south Louisianians.






igeaux.mobi _

I always thought if they built a stadium there they could call it "Three Rivers Stadium".

[HelmutVII]

_ Biged, Helmut, Civil.....I had heard somewhere but can't find it that it is some engineers opinion that the structure (the original low sill and overbank) were put in a less than optimum spot in the river. They stated that this was done for economic reasons. Not much else was explained. Is this based on it being on the inside bend of the river and if so why would this be less than optimum? _

I'm thinking if they put it on an outside curve it would have been lost many years ago. Putting it on an inside curve makes it prone to silt build up.

As usual, there is optimum design, and the design you can afford to build. Usually, the design you can afford to build wins out. The trick is to make the design you can afford to build work for its intended purpose. This is where the ingenuity part of being an Engineer comes into play. The most important thing they teach you in Engineering school is to not teach you how to think, but teach you how to think critically. A fine line to be sure but there is indeed a line.

[CharlieK]

_ I'm thinking if they put it on an outside curve it would have been lost many years ago. Putting it on an inside curve makes it prone to silt build up.

As usual, there is optimum design, and the design you can afford to build. Usually, the design you can afford to build wins out. The trick is to make the design you can afford to build work for its intended purpose. This is where the ingenuity part of being an Engineer comes into play. The most important thing they teach you in Engineering school is to not teach you how to think, but teach you how to think critically. A fine line to be sure but there is indeed a line. _

As a mechanical design engineer I understand what you are saying about the fine line and the need for engineering ingenuity to overcome more than just the techincal challenges but also the economic. What I am asking was specifically what was the limitation of the spot they ended up settling on, and what would have beena better spot. I understand it was a compromise, and I am by no means saying it wasn't done properly, I'm just interested in the technical aspects of this.

Thanks again for your insights.

[Bandwagon King]

_ Well Yes it is actually. _

I knew they were flowing through the power plant. The low sill still operates 24/7 ?

[jumboragncajun]

_ Charlie,
I am by no means an expert on the Mississippi River and it changing its course. I will say that in the micro view, man has controlled the mississippi. Will man always win? There is only one person I know who has the answer to that. In the interim, the men and women of my profession will continue the good fight using scientific data and sound engineering judgement.

BigEd, Jumbo, or Helmut your thoughts? _

I think that sums up my sentiments as well. My knowledge on this is limited to what I have read in a few technical documents.

This is one I read a few years ago:

http://digitool.library.colostate.ed...8xMjU5NA==.pdf

It explains the history of the river pretty well, the alluvial shifts, the natural inclination for the shortest route to the Gulf, and the effects of a takeover etc. It is pretty long, but merely a summary of a comprehensive study.

[Bandwagon King]

_ I don't know the exact operating plan but I would suspect that they wouldn't think of closure until the total flow through all structures results in less than 1.5 million cfs at Red river landing including the normal 70/30 split at ORCS. There is an operational plan and it has been reviewed and approved. I'm sure there are people out there watching very closely for any deviation. If they deviate then there will be hell to pay.

What's the hurry to close? They have a spillway and a floodway, so why not use it? The water is behaving better than expected. Even if they close Morganza, ORCS will still be dumping large amounts of water into the Atchafalaya probably into late June or early July.

Bonnet Carre is still open and operating above design flow will probably stay open for a good while longer. At least until such time that they can safely put the pins in place. _

The hurry to close the gates? There are several businesses that I deal with who have had to pack up & move out due to this. There are a lot of people who live in their camps & have homes in Butte Larose. The Atchafalaya has crested & is going down from here. That is proof that the Mississippi & Atchafalaya together can handle the flow the upper river are putting out & it is time to start lowering more flow into the basin than is needed. I am not going to get into flow rates again with you because you are wrong. The water transference you are saying is going to happen has already happened.

That is why we have an extra ten feet of water in the basin now that wasn't there 10 days ago. I don't mean to sound disrespectful, but when you ask a question like that, it shows me you are full of it & you don't know what is going on. I have put up with the insults from self appointed experts on this sight for days now & the whole time I have asked for numbers to plug into the formula to calcualte flow rates & I haven't gotten a single one. As for being able to see the gates opening at the nine hour mark behind them being opened upstream, I was damn sure able to see the last three openings & not only see the openings I was able to tell how much time it took to lift each gate & how long between as they lifted each gate. I couldn't go back any further than Monday night before because Monday night was when I made the discovery & the charts won't let you go further back than that on the sight. That's right. I could count the gates & the amount of time it took to lift each one.

I have been told what a crack pot I am & how wrong I am...I was wrong. I was wrong because I told you people days ago that the Atchafalaya would crest at 23.5'-24.25'. I thought it would crest earlier & lower, but I was scared of looking stupid so I gave myself an extra 1/2' of breathing room. The Atchafalaya at Butte Larose crested yesterday at the very time evacuation orders were being executed for residents to leave. If you don't believe this then go check the charts.

This means that the river there isn't coming up anymore. Not one more inch. No matter what you say. You've been wrong sir. For you to make a statement like that with such triviality that is affecting people's lives is even more wrong. I'll state another fact on here right now, because this is going to be my last post on the subject. Unless there's a hell of a lot of rain, it isn't going to flood Stephensville & Morgan City outside of the levees. If it were going to it already would have. That is not to say people don't need to be vigilant & pray, but it AINT GONNA HAPPEN.

Now either check the charts & quit giving people this GOD awful BS about imaginary flood rates that you really can't any way in hell calculate with a very higfh degree of accuracy or let it be know right now that you are full of it.

I will further state as far as I can tell, the difference between the river cresting at Morgan City now & cresting at 10.5, 10.8, 11,3, 12.0' or higher freaking feet is the amount of water that is unnecessarily put into this basin that doesn't need to be. Don't even try in your pompus arrogance tell me I'm wrong. I am now stating without a doubt that the Corps can now start to close the gates sloowly over the next week, just like they opened them & not let the basin get any higher than it has. And if you wonder why I am blasting off on you like this, it's because I have suspected all along that you were part of the let's get that basin open & keep it open crowd. That statement you made in the post above proves it. YOU KNOW BETTER SIR. Don't worry because I aint gonna rain on your little pompus parade of arrogance any further. As a matter of fact I'm done with all you people. You call me what you will, but you still haven't proven me wrong with any facts or numbers.

For anyone who wants the truth go here & look at the levels. If they are going down in Simmsport, Krotz Springs, & Butte Larose that means the Atchafalaya is going down. If St. Francisville, Baton Rouge, & Donaldsonville are going down, that Means the Mississippi is going down. If they are both going down together, it means that it is definitely time to start closing gates & look at the levels to see if any need to be reopened. That's it. Don't buy into this lofty load of BS about flow rates & how the water that is up river is going to come sweep us away in about 8-10 days. The river in Baton Rouge is gonna be down 6' or more in 10 days & it won't matter about the pittance of water coming down.

I've been told to educate myself & that's exactly what I did. Anyone checking this thread out for the first time can look at it, check the facts after the fact & ask yourseves am I going to listen to people who make me feel like I'm in their good hands, or are they going to look at the facts & make decisions based on knowledge of the truth. Rant out.

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/Water...new/layout.cfm

[biged05]

_ I think that sums up my sentiments as well. My knowledge on this is limited to what I have read in a few technical documents.

This is one I read a few years ago:

http://digitool.library.colostate.ed...8xMjU5NA==.pdf

It explains the history of the river pretty well, the alluvial shifts, the natural inclination for the shortest route to the Gulf, and the effects of a takeover etc. It is pretty long, but merely a summary of a comprehensive study. _

I think Cajun_civil is right. One day mother nature will win again. You can't fight it forever. It might take a couple of major events to happen at once, but I think it will one day. I think one is to have high water and the New Madrid fault shifts and there's a major earthquake that would crumble levees and changes the coarse of the river.

[confederatephil]

"As a matter of fact "