2011 Mississippi River Spring Floods

[jumboragncajun]

_ Charlie,
I am by no means an expert on the Mississippi River and it changing its course. I will say that in the micro view, man has controlled the mississippi. Will man always win? There is only one person I know who has the answer to that. In the interim, the men and women of my profession will continue the good fight using scientific data and sound engineering judgement.

BigEd, Jumbo, or Helmut your thoughts? _

I think that sums up my sentiments as well. My knowledge on this is limited to what I have read in a few technical documents.

This is one I read a few years ago:

http://digitool.library.colostate.ed...8xMjU5NA==.pdf

It explains the history of the river pretty well, the alluvial shifts, the natural inclination for the shortest route to the Gulf, and the effects of a takeover etc. It is pretty long, but merely a summary of a comprehensive study.

[Bandwagon King]

_ I don't know the exact operating plan but I would suspect that they wouldn't think of closure until the total flow through all structures results in less than 1.5 million cfs at Red river landing including the normal 70/30 split at ORCS. There is an operational plan and it has been reviewed and approved. I'm sure there are people out there watching very closely for any deviation. If they deviate then there will be hell to pay.

What's the hurry to close? They have a spillway and a floodway, so why not use it? The water is behaving better than expected. Even if they close Morganza, ORCS will still be dumping large amounts of water into the Atchafalaya probably into late June or early July.

Bonnet Carre is still open and operating above design flow will probably stay open for a good while longer. At least until such time that they can safely put the pins in place. _

The hurry to close the gates? There are several businesses that I deal with who have had to pack up & move out due to this. There are a lot of people who live in their camps & have homes in Butte Larose. The Atchafalaya has crested & is going down from here. That is proof that the Mississippi & Atchafalaya together can handle the flow the upper river are putting out & it is time to start lowering more flow into the basin than is needed. I am not going to get into flow rates again with you because you are wrong. The water transference you are saying is going to happen has already happened.

That is why we have an extra ten feet of water in the basin now that wasn't there 10 days ago. I don't mean to sound disrespectful, but when you ask a question like that, it shows me you are full of it & you don't know what is going on. I have put up with the insults from self appointed experts on this sight for days now & the whole time I have asked for numbers to plug into the formula to calcualte flow rates & I haven't gotten a single one. As for being able to see the gates opening at the nine hour mark behind them being opened upstream, I was damn sure able to see the last three openings & not only see the openings I was able to tell how much time it took to lift each gate & how long between as they lifted each gate. I couldn't go back any further than Monday night before because Monday night was when I made the discovery & the charts won't let you go further back than that on the sight. That's right. I could count the gates & the amount of time it took to lift each one.

I have been told what a crack pot I am & how wrong I am...I was wrong. I was wrong because I told you people days ago that the Atchafalaya would crest at 23.5'-24.25'. I thought it would crest earlier & lower, but I was scared of looking stupid so I gave myself an extra 1/2' of breathing room. The Atchafalaya at Butte Larose crested yesterday at the very time evacuation orders were being executed for residents to leave. If you don't believe this then go check the charts.

This means that the river there isn't coming up anymore. Not one more inch. No matter what you say. You've been wrong sir. For you to make a statement like that with such triviality that is affecting people's lives is even more wrong. I'll state another fact on here right now, because this is going to be my last post on the subject. Unless there's a hell of a lot of rain, it isn't going to flood Stephensville & Morgan City outside of the levees. If it were going to it already would have. That is not to say people don't need to be vigilant & pray, but it AINT GONNA HAPPEN.

Now either check the charts & quit giving people this GOD awful BS about imaginary flood rates that you really can't any way in hell calculate with a very higfh degree of accuracy or let it be know right now that you are full of it.

I will further state as far as I can tell, the difference between the river cresting at Morgan City now & cresting at 10.5, 10.8, 11,3, 12.0' or higher freaking feet is the amount of water that is unnecessarily put into this basin that doesn't need to be. Don't even try in your pompus arrogance tell me I'm wrong. I am now stating without a doubt that the Corps can now start to close the gates sloowly over the next week, just like they opened them & not let the basin get any higher than it has. And if you wonder why I am blasting off on you like this, it's because I have suspected all along that you were part of the let's get that basin open & keep it open crowd. That statement you made in the post above proves it. YOU KNOW BETTER SIR. Don't worry because I aint gonna rain on your little pompus parade of arrogance any further. As a matter of fact I'm done with all you people. You call me what you will, but you still haven't proven me wrong with any facts or numbers.

For anyone who wants the truth go here & look at the levels. If they are going down in Simmsport, Krotz Springs, & Butte Larose that means the Atchafalaya is going down. If St. Francisville, Baton Rouge, & Donaldsonville are going down, that Means the Mississippi is going down. If they are both going down together, it means that it is definitely time to start closing gates & look at the levels to see if any need to be reopened. That's it. Don't buy into this lofty load of BS about flow rates & how the water that is up river is going to come sweep us away in about 8-10 days. The river in Baton Rouge is gonna be down 6' or more in 10 days & it won't matter about the pittance of water coming down.

I've been told to educate myself & that's exactly what I did. Anyone checking this thread out for the first time can look at it, check the facts after the fact & ask yourseves am I going to listen to people who make me feel like I'm in their good hands, or are they going to look at the facts & make decisions based on knowledge of the truth. Rant out.

http://www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/Water...new/layout.cfm

[biged05]

_ I think that sums up my sentiments as well. My knowledge on this is limited to what I have read in a few technical documents.

This is one I read a few years ago:

http://digitool.library.colostate.ed...8xMjU5NA==.pdf

It explains the history of the river pretty well, the alluvial shifts, the natural inclination for the shortest route to the Gulf, and the effects of a takeover etc. It is pretty long, but merely a summary of a comprehensive study. _

I think Cajun_civil is right. One day mother nature will win again. You can't fight it forever. It might take a couple of major events to happen at once, but I think it will one day. I think one is to have high water and the New Madrid fault shifts and there's a major earthquake that would crumble levees and changes the coarse of the river.

[confederatephil]

"As a matter of fact "

[capitalcajun]

I agree with Bandwagon King in starting to close the gates. I know who he is, and he told me over a week ago that this rise would be much lower than predicted and listed many a good reason. He was right as he is right now. Pinching off on the downflow would give the lower flow a chance to start evacuating now. Why wait when you don't have to? Having worked in the oilfield and understanding flow control, this just amounts to a giant well and should be handled as such. When you have the "capacity" to control the flow PROPERLY, that is what you should do. This truly comes out to simple fluid "dynamics". You control your downstream flow by controlling your upstream flow WHEN YOU CAN, and in this case, you can because now you see what your projected volume is more clearly. It's kinda like the federal budget, you don't have people not paying enough tax, you have too many people SPENDING too much. Choke off the spending, the rest will take care of itself.

[CharlieK]

_ I think Cajun_civil is right. One day mother nature will win again. You can't fight it forever. It might take a couple of major events to happen at once, but I think it will one day. I think one is to have high water and the New Madrid fault shifts and there's a major earthquake that would crumble levees and changes the coarse of the river. _

I am of the opinion (for the little it's worth) that it won't take anything as drastic as an earthquake, though that would surely get it done. It seems like a flood maybe 25% or more larger than the one we are seeing now, that occurs at a time when we haven't been seeing a drought here would do it. It seems like the flows throught the structures are always more than anticipated for the level of flood being handled. Not a knock on anyone, just a fact of life when dealing with an ever changing set of inputs. I think taking the long view our time to enjoy the Basin as a swamp is limited. This was inevitable from the day they cleared the log raft blocking the Atchafalaya in the 1800's. Unfortunatley while a lot has been done to try to stop it from happening, it does not appear much has been done to prepare for the inevitable day the river changes course. This event will leave NO and Baton rouge on a saltwater estuary with little to no freshwater to drink or use for industrial uses. It will destroy Morgan City and possibly flood other towns along the Teche Ridge (the natural boundary of the basin). It's seems like this is generally accepted as something that WILL happen, yet no one is prepared.

There are two ways New Orleans will be destroyed by a major flood, either too much fresh water or too little. Seems we are on top of one of them.

[LsuULfan]

_ Biged, Helmut, Civil.....I had heard somewhere but can't find it that it is some engineers opinion that the structure (the original low sill and overbank) were put in a less than optimum spot in the river. They stated that this was done for economic reasons. Not much else was explained. Is this based on it being on the inside bend of the river and if so why would this be less than optimum? _

From the book I'm reading-Designing the Bayous-referenced above in thread-they did not mention any of that. Accoring to the author-They studied looking for the optimum location and by Knox Landing they discovered an abandoned river channel about 2400 feet wide that ran nearly perpendicular to the Miss River that had various advantages. What's also interesting-like someone said about being pre-computer engineers with pencils-is that Albert Einstein's son, Frans, was involved in the design (he was a professor of hydraulic engineering). Also-at the time they were more concerned about moving as much sediment through the structure as possible. Also-when they had the problems in 1973 the south guide wall on the inflow side started moving-for some reason-probably to save $ they had not driven pilings mto support it as they had for most of the other parts of the structure

[biged05]

_ From the book I'm reading-Designing the Bayous-referenced above in thread-they did not mention any of that. Accoring to the author-They studied looking for the optimum location and by Knox Landing they discovered an abandoned river channel about 2400 feet wide that ran nearly perpendicular to the Miss River that had various advantages. What's also interesting-like someone said about being pre-computer engineers with pencils-is that Albert Einstein's son, Frans, was involved in the design (he was a professor of hydraulic engineering). Also-at the time they were more concerned about moving as much sediment through the structure as possible. Also-when they had the problems in 1973 the south guide wall on the inflow side started moving-for some reason-probably to save $ they had not driven pilings mto support it as they had for most of the other parts of the structure _

Oh I don't think that is the only way either. There are a lot of senerios that could make this take place. I've also heard that if there was more snow fall up north than in '73-'73 it would be a good possiblity. How about if there is that much snow fall, then we get rains like we did this year right after. Geez, that would be an insane amount of water comeing down here.

[2 ul 0105]

_ I agree with Bandwagon King in starting to close the gates. I know who he is, and he told me over a week ago that this rise would be much lower than predicted and listed many a good reason. He was right as he is right now. Pinching off on the downflow would give the lower flow a chance to start evacuating now. Having worked in the oilfield and understanding flow control, this just amounts to a giant well and should be handled as such.

Good lord. I think the corps needs to step out of the way and let the oilfield hands, i.e. "self proclaimed engineers" take over the control structures. Then we can get people from the NASA control room and let them take over offshore drilling. They can read graphs and punch buttons. I mean it is that simple, right BK.

[CharlieK]

_ From the book I'm reading-Designing the Bayous-referenced above in thread-they did not mention any of that. Accoring to the author-They studied looking for the optimum location and by Knox Landing they discovered an abandoned river channel about 2400 feet wide that ran nearly perpendicular to the Miss River that had various advantages. What's also interesting-like someone said about being pre-computer engineers with pencils-is that Albert Einstein's son, Frans, was involved in the design (he was a professor of hydraulic engineering). Also-at the time they were more concerned about moving as much sediment through the structure as possible. Also-when they had the problems in 1973 the south guide wall on the inflow side started moving-for some reason-probably to save $ they had not driven pilings mto support it as they had for most of the other parts of the structure _

I am reading that book now as well, but havn't gotten to that section. It is a good book so far. However remember it is written bya corp historian I believe. I will look in the other books I have and try to find where the question about the location came from. Sounds like from what you said here they chose it for ease of digging (existing channel). That would jibe with the comment of less than optimal as the existing channel may not have led to the structure being placed relative to the river in the best hydraulic position. Civil cajun mentioned the relative location of the aux structure being chosen to help support the low sill structure, maybe that was in response to this weakness in chosen location.

This is interesting stuff, till you think about the consequences of the inevitable failure.

[jumboragncajun]

_ I don't know the exact operating plan but I would suspect that they wouldn't think of closure until the total flow through all structures results in less than 1.5 million cfs at Red river landing including the normal 70/30 split at ORCS. into late June or early July.

I agree 100%. The outlet capacity at the GOM is estimated to be 1,250,000 cfs. More than that, the levees in New Orleans is at severe risk. With Bonnet Carré discharging 250k cfs, the magic 1,500,000 cfs trigger in Baton Rouge is attained. When the flow at Red River Landing is determined to be 1,494,000 cfs, I think CONSIDERATION will be given to closing 1 bay. When 1,488,000 cfs passess RRL, consideration will be given to closing 2 bays....etc etc.... unitl THAT happens, the "basin" will serve it's intended purpose and remain a "basin".
The latest flows at RRL were determined to be nearly 1.6 million cfs. (48 hours ago). So, not just yet.

[Bandwagon King]

_ The south wind of the last couple days has canals south of Abbeville full to the brim, with flooding in some low lying cattle pastures.

With all the extra water in the gulf I wonder how long it takes to dissipate. If it takes days for the water to get from the locks to Morgan City, it must take weeks and weeks to get out of the Gulf.

I hope we get a late hurricane season, I could see an early hurricane creating a serious storm surge pushing all that water back on land. _

Turbine, I wish to post this information to you & any other open minded knowledge seeking people who may be out there in the minority listening to me. When you & Chop who posted right underneath you on this subject, I was evasive. I did not want to think about it, but since then I have thought about it.

There are those who want to keep flooding the basin more than necessary just because they look at it as a drainage ditch, sewer system, whatever. I can tell you why you are absolutely 100% correct in your assessment of the potential danger in this situation & why we should be getting rid of this water into the GOM as fast as possible & not letting it remain in the basin any longer than it has to.

My earlier reply to your post was conditions were not favorable for an anitcyclonic build up in the GOM right now. That does not mean they can not be favorable somewhere else.

If a Cat.3 storm were to strike anywhere between the Sabine river & the mouth of the Atchafalaya within the next month the results WOULD be catastrophic. A storm surge that would normally stop somewhere around Hwy 14 could potentially be pushed up above I-10 & certainly would be pushed up as far as Hwy. 90. where the train tracks run. The only people who would be spared flooding to their homes are people who live along Couteau Ridge as well as any other elevations above I'd estimate somewhere around 27' above MSL.

The river is flowing all its water to the west now when it gets into the bays & marshes. Those bays & marshes are swelling & will continue to stay swollen unless the water is evacuated ASAP. The fastest way to do this is DOWN THE RIVER. Every inch the water goes up in the Basin is another 3-4 days it will take to get the Atchafalaya level back closer to normal. As it gets closer to normal the blessed flow rate slows down & allows it to evacuate to the GOM without backing up nearly as much. Since they have sunk the barge into Bayou Shane the river is now acting like a syphon & causing the levels in Bayou Shane Lake Polurde & points north & east to actually drop in level.

This means all the water being evacuated out of the Atchafalaya is coming west into lower west St. Mary, Iberia, Vermillion, & so on to the west all the way to the state line. The Intracoastal canal as well as other waterways will attempt to distribute the water, but the longer this situation keeps up the more danger we are in. Before any self seving brain surgeons on here tell me how wack I am, you better check your ego at the door. Don't tell me it can't happen this way, because it already has happened this way. Has anyone ever heard of Hurrican Audrey? Check your callender & tell me it can't happen.

For those folks who told me I need to look at the big picture, my response would be look at the BIG, BIG picture. If there is 0.0001 per cent chance of this happening, we better be doing all we can to avoid the scenario. That is unless you want the SWAMP to take on a whole new meaning.