It might be time ...
for Coach Robe to get on the phone and attempt to add some good in-state road opponents to the schedule.
When the season began, the out of conference slate seemed reasonable, if not as sexy as in previous years. Wichita State, Texas State, Northwestern State, Lamar, Minnesota, St. John's, South Florida, Hawaii, and Louisiana-Monroe seemed to account for a reasonable SOS. Even, Sam Houston, McNeese State, Southern, Southeastern Louisiana, Harvard, Miami-Ohio, Louisiana Tech, and Nicholls State would hold serve. Right?
Well, this is not happening. Although we are still a couple of weeks away before the RPI really begins to solidify, the early returns are a little worrisome. Only Wichita State, Hawaii, Northwestern State, Texas State, Louisiana Tech, South Florida, Sam Houston State, and Lamar have pRPIs in the Top 100 (14 games), with most at the lower end of that range. Only three of those schools are in the Top 50. Many teams on the schedule have been a disappointment thus far. Hopefully Louisiana Tech will continue to improve and up their RPI once they get into the WAC. Rice is beatable and San Jose State will provide some decent competition.
It gets worse. The Sun Belt is down this year. This is not a three bid year for the Sun Belt. Likely, one or two teams will go to the postseason this year, barring a solid #2 in the Sun Belt and a conference tournament upset. Two teams made postseason play last year with a tournament upset. There is only one team in the Sun Belt capable of a regional championship. More than half of the league has a pRPI of less than 150. Only two schools are in the Top 100 (ASU and FIU are flirting with the Top 100). Conference play is always tough and this means many chances for losses against lowly rated opponents. Which will be tough on the Cajuns' pRPI and in some cases could even result in RPI penalties.
At this point in the season, the toughest remaining games on the schedule are this weekend against South Alabama. The weekend series against Texas-Pan American really hurts because this is another opponent outside of the Top 150 being brought in for a home series. We have enough of those in conference play. As more and more of these low rated RPI squads get entered into the record, the RPI rating will take a hit. Often a loss against a highly rated opponent is better than a win against a lowly rated opponent.
The Cajuns do have two more games against Northwestern State (one on the road). They also have a home and home with Lamar as well as a road tilt with Louisiana-Monroe. Finally, two games (one a resumption of a game in which the Cajuns trail) against Sam Houston State at home. But I do not think this is going to be enough.
Assuming there is anticipated room on the schedule, I would give Tulane a call (just for this season) to see if they would be interested in hosting the Cajuns for a midweek game. During the week before they play Texas-Pan American would be a good time (no conference series that weekend). Tulane has a midweek game against UNO that week and plays at Charlotte (CUSA) the following weekend. Charlotte should not give them much trouble. Heck, see if they would be interested in two games or schedule another with Northwestern State. The schedule is going to be a drag on the Cajun RPI as the season goes on unless they win an unusually high percentage of those games. Despite the quality ball club, I just do not see the Cajuns going 20-4 in conference play. And the midweek games can be tough when you run out your #4 starter against a weekend starter. They are tough even when facing the #4 starter.
Just some thought for consumption ...
Brian
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Re: It might be time ...
