Adjusted RPI (4/25)

[GoneGolfin]

Through this weekend's games, the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI came in at .5502, good for a rank of #56 (up from .5467 and a rank of #61 last week). The Cajun RPI increased nicely despite a 3-2 record last week (only a modest increase in WP), a modest decrease in OOWP, and the loss of .0006 in RPI bonus. Having #212 Southern on the schedule was as beneficial as playing #91 South Alabama. Meanwhile, playing both teams for a total of four games was instrumental as the Cajuns saw a healthy rise in their OWP component. #124 McNeese State ... not so much.

UL RPI Breakdown:
WP: .5610 (up from .5556)
OWP: .5498 (up from .5434)
OOWP: .5161 (down from .5181)
Base RPI: .5442 (Rank #64)
RPI Bonuses: .0060 (USM -> .0024, Rice -> .0018, LSU -> .0018)
Adjusted RPI: .5502 (Rank #56) (up from .5467 and Rank of #61)
Road RPI: .5385 (Rank #60)
SOS: .5385 (Rank #57)
Non-Conference RPI: .5384 (Rank #84)
vs. Top 25 Base RPI: 1-1
vs. Top 50 Base RPI: 7-5
vs. Top 75 Base RPI: 8-7
vs. Top 100 Base RPI: 10-9

RPI Bonus Watch:
Southern Mississippi (Base RPI Ranking #14 ... Bonus -> .0024)
Rice (Base RPI Ranking #26 ... Bonus -> .0018)
LSU (Base RPI Ranking #30 ... Bonus -> .0018)

Note that #26 Rice is a mere .0001 behind Central Florida and Texas (both tied for #24).

Adjusted RPI:
30 0.5778 Louisiana State
31 0.5734 Elon
32 0.5712 Troy
33 0.5712 Kansas State
34 0.5699 Florida International
35 0.5697 Washington State
36 0.5691 Arizona
37 0.5681 Alabama
38 0.5677 California
39 0.5668 St John's
40 0.5641 Mississippi
41 0.5640 Texas Tech
42 0.5612 East Tennessee State
43 0.5606 Texas State
44 0.5582 Southeastern Louisiana
45 0.5582 Baylor
46 0.5580 Jacksonville
47 0.5567 Houston
48 0.5562 Kent State
49 0.5534 Creighton
50 0.5533 Rhode Island
51 0.5531 Florida Atlantic
52 0.5521 Cal State Bakersfield
53 0.5511 Alabama-Birmingham
54 0.5510 UCLA
55 0.5506 Nebraska
56 0.5502 Louisiana
57 0.5500 Gonzaga
58 0.5492 College of Charleston
59 0.5486 Coastal Carolina
60 0.5486 Mercer
61 0.5475 Kansas
62 0.5465 UC Irvine
63 0.5458 Tulane
64 0.5455 Connecticut
65 0.5446 Cal Poly
66 0.5446 Western Kentucky
67 0.5445 Nevada-Las Vegas
68 0.5430 Memphis
69 0.5421 Illinois State
70 0.5411 Belmont
71 0.5404 Georgia Southern
72 0.5404 Loyola Marymount
73 0.5400 Long Beach State
74 0.5396 Louisville
75 0.5393 Maryland

Brian

[raginsaints]

So can we still get an at large?

[GoneGolfin]

Looking ahead ...

Evaluating simply the UL vs. SLU game tomorrow (and not the results impact of the opponents and opponents' opponents of each team ... as well as the movement of teams around UL in Adjusted RPI) ...

A win over #44 SLU will result in an increase of .0036 in the RPI taking the Base RPI to .5478 and the Adjusted RPI to .5538. This would be good for an Adjusted RPI rank of #49 using today's Adjusted RPIs.

A loss to #44 SLU will result in a decrease of .0024 in the RPI taking the Base RPI to .5418 and the Adjusted RPI to .5478. This would be good for an Adjusted RPI rank of #61 using today's Adjusted RPIs.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ So can we still get an at large? _

Why not?

Brian

[raginsaints]

You're the guru. What RPI rank are we shooting for for an at large?

[GoneGolfin]

_ You're the guru. What RPI rank are we shooting for for an at large? _

You asked if they can earn an at-large bid. There is a minimum of 17 games remaining. That is a tremendous amount of baseball remaining. The range of possible outcomes is anywhere from a #2 seed to finishing twelve games under .500. So, of course they can.

As for RPI rank, you always want a rank in the Top 50. But determining the required rank by itself is not possible with the myriad of variables that remain to be resolved. This includes, but is not limited to ...

- Conference finish
- Final records against the RPI top 25/50/75/100
- Non-Conference RPI
- Road RPI
- Record in last 15 games
- Conference Tournament performance
- # of conference tournament upsets (stolen bids)
- Head-to-head record vs. teams the Cajun might be in competition with for an at-large bid

If the season ended today, the Cajuns would not be in the tournament. They probably would not be one of the next five to seven teams. But they are in the hunt and there is plenty of baseball remaining.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

Assuming Troy wins the regular season, we are really hoping that if UL does not win the conference tournament (which we never do) that Troy does.

The Sun Belt is very likely to get at least 2 teams in and likely 3. Right now if UL can get the 2nd seed for the tournament and have a RPI better #50 (better than #40 preferably) and not go 0-2 in the tournament we still likely have a decent shot at an at-large believe it or not.

[GoneGolfin]

Right now if UL can get the 2nd seed for the tournament and have a RPI better #50 (better than #40 preferably) and not go 0-2 in the tournament we still likely have a decent shot at an at-large believe it or not. _

Note that the Cajuns will play a minimum of three conference tournament games. Seeding is important because it may come into play as a tiebreaker.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Assuming Troy wins the regular season, we are really hoping that if UL does not win the conference tournament (which we never do) that Troy does.

Indeed. However, it is looking like FIU is the second team in from the Sun Belt, provided they do not experience a significant fall. I think they could finish third, fourth, maybe even fifth (provided they are close to the pack, which at minimum they probably will be) and still be the second team provided they maintain their lofty RPI ranking in the Top 40 (currently #34).

IOW, it will be difficult for the Cajuns to be chosen as an at-large before FIU. A lot would need to happen. Evening the season series in the SBC Tournament would be a start ... as would separating themselves from the Panthers in the conference standings. Hopefully the Cajuns can get some help from South Alabama this weekend.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

_ Note that the Cajuns will play a minimum of three conference tournament games. Seeding is important because it may come into play as a tiebreaker.

Brian _

Yep, I forgot about the format change for the SBC tournament. Hopefully we get on the same side of the bracket as FIU and beat them. And you are right about FIU, it looks like they are the clear cut #2 at this point. They have time to fall back though.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Yep, I forgot about the format change for the SBC tournament. Hopefully we get on the same side of the bracket as FIU and beat them. And you are right about FIU, it looks like they are the clear cut #2 at this point. They have time to fall back though. _

It is always possible. However, I like the remaining schedule for FIU. They play 10 of their last 14 games at home ... including 9 of their last 12 conference games at home. They also have a road game against a Top 25 RPI non-conference foe (Stetson) that is quite winnable ... a chance to pick up some nice RPI bonus ... and even with a loss, their RPI may still rise.

Remaining conference games ...
South Alabama (3)
at Middle Tennessee (3)
Arkansas State (3)
Florida Atlantic (3)

Brian