Adjusted RPI (4/18)

[GoneGolfin]

Through this weekend's games, the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI came in at .5467 (down from .5486 after Saturday's games), good for a rank of #63 (down from #61). The Cajuns are 7-5 vs. the Base RPI Top 50 and 8-7 vs. the Base RPI Top 75 and 100. The Cajuns need to protect this stat as it may prove to be quite instrumental in earning a potential at-large bid. That makes upcoming games against Troy(3), Rice(1), South Alabama(3), and Southeastern Louisiana(1) are very important.

Troy's RPI and RPI ranking was hammered this weekend ... #1 for playing Middle Tennessee three times and #2 for losing to the Blue Raiders twice. Troy's RPI rank is now second in the Sun Belt at #44.

40 0.5700 Arizona
41 0.5690 Florida International
42 0.5686 Texas Tech
43 0.5680 Alabama
44 0.5667 Troy
45 0.5626 Southeastern Louisiana
46 0.5618 Kansas State
47 0.5611 Kent State
48 0.5601 Jacksonville
49 0.5592 Florida Atlantic
50 0.5582 Gonzaga
51 0.5579 UC Irvine
52 0.5577 Maryland
53 0.5576 Coastal Carolina
54 0.5568 Houston
55 0.5561 St John's
56 0.5538 Rhode Island
57 0.5512 Tulane
58 0.5506 Sam Houston State
59 0.5487 UCLA
60 0.5483 Loyola Marymount
61 0.5474 Belmont
62 0.5470 Virginia Military
63 0.5467 Louisiana-Lafayette
64 0.5466 Long Beach State
65 0.5462 Illinois State
66 0.5454 Mercer
67 0.5446 San Jose State
68 0.5444 Kansas
69 0.5443 Samford
70 0.5442 College of Charleston
71 0.5433 Western Kentucky
72 0.5427 Liberty
73 0.5425 Tennessee
74 0.5399 Memphis
75 0.5398 Nebraska

Brian

[Rebel02]

Not exactly a great number to be at right now, but there are lots of games left on the schedule to improve.

1. All conference series, except for MT, although they got a big boost by taking 2 of 3 from Troy. Continued improvement could mean some help from them instead of hurting the RPI in a 3 game series. We don't play MT until May 13 (at the Tigue), so they have a few series to improve their record.

2. Midweek game against SLU at the Tigue (4/26)

3. Midweek game against Rice at the Tigue (5/10)

Rice is currently in the Top 25 in the RPI, so another win against them would be an added win in our W-L vs. Top 25. And SLU is still in the Top 50, so beating them would improve the record vs. the Top 50. This of course assumes that both stay in the top 25 and top 50 respectively.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Not exactly a great number to be at right now, but there are lots of games left on the schedule to improve.

1. All conference series, except for MT, although they got a big boost by taking 2 of 3 from Troy. Continued improvement could mean some help from them instead of hurting the RPI in a 3 game series. We don't play MT until May 13 (at the Tigue), so they have a few series to improve their record.

MT winning conference games does not help us ... it is a wash in the end (unless rainouts occur). What we need is for MT to win out-of-conference games. ULM is the exception as we play them six times.

2. Midweek game against SLU at the Tigue (4/26)

3. Midweek game against Rice at the Tigue (5/10)

Rice is currently in the Top 25 in the RPI, so another win against them would be an added win in our W-L vs. Top 25. And SLU is still in the Top 50, so beating them would improve the record vs. the Top 50. This of course assumes that both stay in the top 25 and top 50 respectively. _

I glossed over SLU and have added them to the original post.

But keep in mind, the RPI rankings you are using are actual Adjusted RPI rankings. This is not what is used when determining records vs. the Top XX. The Base RPI formula is used (unadjusted). So, we have (these are not the Adjusted RPI numbers, but the Base RPI numbers) ...

#16 USM (1-1)
#19 Rice (1-0) 1 game remaining
#30 LSU (1-0)
#34 California (0-1)
#41 Troy (0-0) 3 games remaining
#44 FIU (1-2)
#47 FAU (3-0)
#48 SLU (0-1) 1 game remaining
#72 Western Kentucky (1-2)
#93 South Alabama (0-0) 3 games remaining

Brian

[Rebel02]

_ MT winning conference games does not help us ... it is a wash in the end (unless rainouts occur). What we need is for MT to win out-of-conference games. ULM is the exception as we play them six times.

I would have thought that them improving their record would help out the OWP (50%) of our RPI as opposed to hurting it if they continued losing. I know it impacts OOWP, but only at a 25% weight.

I glossed over SLU and have added them to the original post.

But keep in mind, the RPI rankings you are using are actual Adjusted RPI rankings. This is not what is used when determining records vs. the Top XX. The Base RPI formula is used (unadjusted). So, we have (these are not the Adjusted RPI numbers, but the Base RPI numbers) ...

#16 USM (1-1)
#19 Rice (1-0) 1 game remaining
#30 LSU (1-0)
#34 California (0-1)
#41 Troy (0-0) 3 games remaining
#44 FIU (1-2)
#47 FAU (3-0)
#48 SLU (0-1) 1 game remaining
#72 Western Kentucky (1-2)
#93 South Alabama (0-0) 3 games remaining

Brian _

Yea, I know about the Base vs. Adjusted RPI. I've learned a lot of the years thanks to your posts. I knew I was pulling from the Adjusted RPI numbers you posted knowing that the Base RPI wouldn't have a significant variance from the Adjusted RPI.

[cajunhawk]

Devil's advocate...Brian....how can a team only win 7 out of their last 20 games and yet still remain in the RPI top 40? I know we need the purple thing out east to win to retain our RPI bonus but if they continue to lose will they ever fall out of the Top 50? Is the RPI heavily weighted towards power conferences? Will Lindsey Lohan ever get her act together? Will Tiger Woods ever win another major? Will Barry Bonds' head ever return to its normal size?

Brian....we need answers....

[Rebel02]

_ Devil's advocate...Brian....how can a team only win 7 out of their last 20 games and yet still remain in the RPI top 40? I know we need the purple thing out east to win to retain our RPI bonus but if they continue to lose will they ever fall out of the Top 50? Is the RPI heavily weighted towards power conferences? Will Lindsey Lohan ever get her act together? Will Tiger Woods ever win another major? Will Barry Bonds' head ever return to its normal size?

Brian....we need answers.... _

It's pretty simple. Their opponents' and opponents' opponents' records make up 75% of their RPI. Playing a schedule in which your opponents' winning percentage is around .600 and the same can be said for your opponents' opponents' winning percentage, losses don't affect you as much.

[GoneGolfin]

_ I would have thought that them improving their record would help out the OWP (50%) of our RPI as opposed to hurting it if they continued losing. I know it impacts OOWP, but only at a 25% weight.

For conference games this is a wash in the end (again, assuming no rainouts for the Cajuns and excluding ULM as we play them six times) as the conference team they beat has their record decline by the same. In the case of ULM, it would be to UL's advantage for them to win against Middle (and everyone else in conference).

Yea, I know about the Base vs. Adjusted RPI. I've learned a lot of the years thanks to your posts. I knew I was pulling from the Adjusted RPI numbers you posted knowing that the Base RPI wouldn't have a significant variance from the Adjusted RPI. _

Usually yes, for a given team. But there can be a significant variance ... and even if there is not, there are usually several teams in any given report that split tiers. This is the case for two teams in the Top 50 threshold and one team in the Top 75 threshhold.

Also consider that the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI is 10 spots higher than their Base RPI. The Cajuns are about to fall out of the Base RPI 75 at #73.

Meanwhile, SLU is very close to falling out of the Top 50 ... as is FAU (whom just climbed in).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Devil's advocate...Brian....how can a team only win 7 out of their last 20 games and yet still remain in the RPI top 40? I know we need the purple thing out east to win to retain our RPI bonus but if they continue to lose will they ever fall out of the Top 50? Is the RPI heavily weighted towards power conferences? Will Lindsey Lohan ever get her act together? Will Tiger Woods ever win another major? Will Barry Bonds' head ever return to its normal size?

Brian....we need answers.... _

Rebel explained it. It is all about the heavy weighting of SOS in the RPI ... and in particular the ridiculous weighting of your opponents' W-L record ... which is a serious hole/flaw in the RPI that can be easily exploited by those in the know. Some teams can have a losing record and be in the RPI Top 50. Meanwhile, teams like LSU also have the benefit of scheduling at minimum half of their high RPI games (more importantly with good W-L records) at home. The Base RPI does not distinguish from home/road.

Brian

[cajunhawk]

_ Rebel explained it. It is all about the heavy weighting of SOS in the RPI ... and in particular the ridiculous weighting of your opponents' W-L record ... which is a serious hole/flaw in the RPI that can be easily exploited by those in the know. Some teams can have a losing record and be in the RPI Top 50. Meanwhile, teams like LSU also have the benefit of scheduling at minimum half of their high RPI games (more importantly with good W-L records) at home. The Base RPI does not distinguish from home/road.

Brian _

Thanks Reb and Brian. Seems like the RPI is a good ole boy ranking system that the NCAA wants to keep in place.