Originally Posted by
GoneGolfin
Correction ... and this is very important to understand ... it is not losing to NSU that was a big deal. It was playing NSU that was a big deal. The actual loss to NSU is no more impactful to the RPI than any other loss.
Let's say that you have two games scheduled ... one against NSU ... and one against Rice. You go 1-1 in those games. It does not matter against whom the win came against. As such, it does not matter against whom the loss came against. The RPI will be the same. When assessing the WP portion of the RPI formula, wins and losses are treated equally ... no matter whom they come against.
However, their OWP and OOWP (which combined is their SOS) does matter and is wholly independent of winning/losing the game. And this is why I say simply playing NSU was a big deal to the Cajun RPI. Simply playing NSU (regardless of a win or loss) brings another game of their OWP and OOWP into the Cajuns' aggregate OWP and OOWP. And remember, OWP and OOWP are 75% of the Base RPI calculation. WP is only 25%. Thus, it is really OWP that is paramount. And this is where NSU killed us ... simply by playing them (regardless of a win or loss). NSU brought another weighted game (2 total for the year) of their 11-21 record into the Cajuns' OWP (11-21 is used for OWP purposes because games vs. the Cajuns do not count in the Cajuns' OWP calculation).
OWP is so important that, as I demonstrated, the Cajuns would be better off playing #286 Savannah State than #164 NSU.
Make sense?
Another important point (and I know you understand this, but it is still an important point to make as you will see below) ... the RPI is not in the 60s. The RPI rank is in the 60s. The RPI is an actual percentage that is calculated based on winning percentage, opponents winning percentage, and opponents' opponents winning percentage ... along with an adjustment made for bonuses and penalties.
In terms of the RPI, playing and losing to NSU affected us exactly as much as we thought it would. We knew beforehand exactly how much it would affect the Cajuns. What we did not know was how many additional adjustments would be made to the RPI due to Cajun opponents play and Cajun opponents' opponents play. And most importantly, we did not know how the RPIs of teams ranked in the vicinity of the Cajuns would be affected, which has a direct impact on the Cajuns' RPI ranking.
One thing we do know that affects how an RPI is translated to an actual RPI ranking is the RPI spread among teams ranked in the vicinity. You can have a huge win and boost to your RPI, but actually not move up in the RPI rankings due to a large spread between you and the next highest team ... or simply because the teams above won games that were good enough to keep an RPI higher than you. You can state the converse case for losses.
Also keep in mind, while the RPI rankings may make it look like the game did not have the expected effect on the RPI ranking, it may have brought the Cajuns in tighter with a group of teams immediately below them. This can result in a delayed effect of dropping in the RPI rankings. It could happen on a day when the teams in question do not even play. Meanwhile, a subsequent loss could send the team reeling in the RPI rankings much more than anticipated, though the actual RPI did not drop much.
We do not need to win out. Winning out just the regular season would leave the Cajuns with an Adjusted RPI of .5919. This assumes that the Cajun opponents' WP (in games not against the Cajuns) and OWP remain constant (and they will change) and the Cajun RPI bonus remains at .0066. In the present RPI rankings, this would be good for #23. Of course, the RPIs of individual teams will also change, but this is a good guide and fills in all of the variables that we know at this time.
Winning out the regular season (not accounting for the conference tournament), obtaining a #23 RPI ranking, and considering the conference strength and expected conference finish (1st or 2nd) by going 22-0 down the stretch, would be the resume' of a strong #2 seed. Especially when the NCAA selection committee sees the 22-0 finish.
Some other scenarios:
- Cajuns finish 18-4: .5737 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #38
- Cajuns finish 17-5: .5691 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #43
- Cajuns finish 15-7: .5600 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #49
As you can see finishing 15-7 is very close to winning 2 out of every three remaining (16-8 would be 2/3). Finishing 15-7, in my mind (I think this would result in a Top 3 Sun Belt finish), would likely put us in the NCAA Tournament as a #3 seed, provided we do reasonably well in our remaining games against the RPI Top25/50/75 ... which means that the six road games against FIU and Troy, along with the home game against Rice are all paramount. Of course, the Cajuns would need to keep pace in the Sun Belt Conference tournament.
Brian
Adjusted RPI (4/14)
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Re: Adjusted RPI (4/14)
Re: Adjusted RPI (4/14)
