Adjusted RPI (4/14)

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns' RPI dropped slightly (.0001) after Thursday's games to .5473. The Adjusted RPI ranking remained at #61.

Tonight's win by itself increased the Cajuns' RPI by .0040 (as predicted yesterday). This results in a Base RPI of .5447 and an Adjusted RPI of .5513. We will see how our opponents fared tonight and our opponents' opponents (the final pieces to the puzzle). A .5513 Adjusted RPI would have been good for a rank of #55 this morning.

It helps that Rice defeated Tulane tonight (3-1).

Brian

[Turbine]

Thanks Brian, much appreciated.

[CajunsHat]

And LSU Baseball blows the lead down by 4. Haha I love watching their teams crumble.

igeaux.mobi

[Cajun90]

And LSU Baseball blows the lead down by 4. Haha I love watching their teams crumble.

igeaux.mobi

Doesn't help our RPI.

[CajunsHat]

I don't care if they hurt or help us, I won't ever cheer for them. It's just not in my blood...blame it on my parents.


igeaux.mobi

[LifeTimeCajun]

So Brian, if u were in charge of scheduling for a respective team... And being schedules are done so far in advance, how would u create a schedule in order to protect your RPI? Seems like it's a crap shoot, and u can only really go on history to hopefully protect yourself with RPI...but it seems to me it's an educated guess?!

igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ So Brian, if u were in charge of scheduling for a respective team... And being schedules are done so far in advance, how would u create a schedule in order to protect your RPI? Seems like it's a crap shoot, and u can only really go on history to hopefully protect yourself with RPI...but it seems to me it's an educated guess?!

It is an educated guess ... but a guess backed up by due diligence and history.

There are some teams that history shows are near locks for enhancing your RPI, while still providing you an excellent chance to win. The top teams in the SWAC are good examples. I would load up on Southern every year. Play them four times per year ... even if you play two on the road. Southern nearly always does well for your OWP. Jackson State is another team in this category.

You are primarily looking for two things ...
1) Weak teams you can beat that are likely to have winning records. The more over .500, the better. The weak OWP that these teams will have will have a negligible impact on your RPI as it will only become part of your OOWP. Meanwhile, 75% of the formula will be heavily in your favor if you win ... and still 50% if you lose.

2) Strong teams that are likely to have winning records. These teams will really help you if you win (as 100% of the formula is in your favor) ... and will not hurt you if you lose (your RPI may still rise). These teams are also of benefit as they can strengthen your record against the RPI Top 25 and RPI Top50.

You want to avoid ...
1) Quite simply, teams with poor W-L records. They will kill your OWP. Some are so bad that your RPI will fall even if you win. You especially want to avoid decent teams with poor W-L records (Northwestern State) because they played a difficult schedule. Their difficult schedule does not benefit you much (25%) and you also might lose ... in which case 75% of the formula is not in your favor.

2) Teams that have just above or near .500 records, but are good teams. Florida International is a good example. Teams typically towards the bottom of the SEC and Big XII are good examples. They will not help your OWP (probably will not hurt it much either). But there is a decent chance you lose the game.

BTW, many schedule slots are filled in the months leading up to the season.

And as has been discussed on this board ... you may want to consider not re-scheduling certain games that were canceled earlier in the season. You may opt to schedule them the next year (when their record may be greatly improved).

I think looking at the coach of a program is also important. There are many coaches out there that simply field winning teams most of the time. If those coaches move on, you may need to reconsider scheduling them.

Finally, it is reasonable to gauge the chance of a team having a successful W-L record based on the prior year's performance and returning personnel. Obviously this is not foolproof, but it positions the odds in your favor. A little due diligence here can go a long way.

Finally, during the season when games get canceled, I would be actively looking to schedule teams that also have room to fill a game ... that would be advantageous to schedule. Additionally, you need not schedule the max number of games before the season begins. Maybe hold back one or two and try to fill them later when you have more info ... even if you must travel.

This is all about positioning the odds in your favor and trying to find teams that will have a good W-L record.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

_ It is an educated guess ... but a guess backed up by due diligence and history.

There are some teams that history shows are near locks for enhancing your RPI, while still providing you an excellent chance to win. The top teams in the SWAC are good examples. I would load up on Southern every year. Play them four times per year ... even if you play two on the road. Southern nearly always does well for your OWP. Jackson State is another team in this category.

You are primarily looking for two things ...
1) Weak teams you can beat that are likely to have winning records. The more over .500, the better. The weak OWP that these teams will have will have a negligible impact on your RPI as it will only become part of your OOWP. Meanwhile, 75% of the formula will be heavily in your favor if you win ... and still 50% if you lose.

2) Strong teams that are likely to have winning records. These teams will really help you if you win (as 100% of the formula is in your favor) ... and will not hurt you if you lose (your RPI may still rise). These teams are also of benefit as they can strengthen your record against the RPI Top 25 and RPI Top50.

You want to avoid ...
1) Quite simply, teams with poor W-L records. They will kill your OWP. Some are so bad that your RPI will fall even if you win. You especially want to avoid decent teams with poor W-L records (Northwestern State) because they played a difficult schedule. Their difficult schedule does not benefit you much (25%) and you also might lose ... in which case 75% of the formula is not in your favor.

2) Teams that have just above or near .500 records, but are good teams. Florida International is a good example. Teams typically towards the bottom of the SEC and Big XII are good examples. They will not help your OWP (probably will not hurt it much either). But there is a decent chance you lose the game.

BTW, many schedule slots are filled in the months leading up to the season.

And as has been discussed on this board ... you may want to consider not re-scheduling certain games that were canceled earlier in the season. You may opt to schedule them the next year (when their record may be greatly improved).

I think looking at the coach of a program is also important. There are many coaches out there that simply field winning teams most of the time. If those coaches move on, you may need to reconsider scheduling them.

Finally, it is reasonable to gauge the chance of a team having a successful W-L record based on the prior year's performance and returning personnel. Obviously this is not foolproof, but it positions the odds in your favor. A little due diligence here can go a long way.

Finally, during the season when games get canceled, I would be actively looking to schedule teams that also have room to fill a game ... that would be advantageous to schedule. Additionally, you need not schedule the max number of games before the season begins. Maybe hold back one or two and try to fill them later when you have more info ... even if you must travel.

This is all about positioning the odds in your favor and trying to find teams that will have a good W-L record.

Brian _

Great breakdown. I have for years thought about this exact thing because I am one of the few who likes the RPI and I think more teams should use it in their favor and take advantage of what you can. I hate subjective polls and this is the only thing we have to be objective although it is not perfect it is the best we have.

Maybe UL should put you on payroll just for scheduling in all our sports.

[CajunRed]

Doesn't help our RPI.

...but it helps my peace of mind. I slept very well last night!

igeaux.mobi

[CajunRed]

RPI ranking this Saturday morning..."54"...and ahead of Tulame at 62.

Brian...reading over your RPI comments and how and why it is better to play a 225 team than a 110 team. Although the RPI has some overall benefits, it is disappointing that it works that way. When a team can actually benefit from playing a weaker schedule, you know something is wrong with its use. Thanks for the explanation, though.

Btw...you are now officially on my payroll. Free peanuts for you and your daughters when i see you at The Tigue!!

igeaux.mobi

[moorecajun]

_ Great breakdown. I have for years thought about this exact thing because I am one of the few who likes the RPI and I think more teams should use it in their favor and take advantage of what you can. I hate subjective polls and this is the only thing we have to be objective although it is not perfect it is the best we have.

Maybe UL should put you on payroll just for scheduling in all our sports. _

Funny, I was thinking the same thing ... our new scheduling consultant!

What we can do is hold off on scheduling 6 games each year, then add them in with some local RPI winners! Just kidding on this but there is some benefit. They don't have to schedule the maximum number of games prior to the season. I remember picking up a game or two in the past during the season.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Great breakdown. I have for years thought about this exact thing because I am one of the few who likes the RPI and I think more teams should use it in their favor and take advantage of what you can.

I hate subjective polls and this is the only thing we have to be objective although it is not perfect it is the best we have.

Thanks. I also do not like subjective polls. But the RPI is not the best we have. The NCAA simply chooses not to listen and adapt. The RPI can be improved dramatically and the flaws I have pointed out rectified by some simple formula changes. But baseball has held fast to the original flawed formula.

Additionally, Boyd Nation's ISR system is superior to the RPI as it does not succumb to the flaws I have mentioned ... and better address the connectivity problem.

Maybe UL should put you on payroll just for scheduling in all our sports.

Ha! No, I would advise without fee if asked. Of course, each sport has its own nuances as the formulas can be different from sport to sport.

Brian