Adjusted RPI (4/14)

[GoneGolfin]

Through Wednesday's games, the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI came in at .5474 (down from .5533 after Tuesday's games), good for a rank of #61. The loss to Northwestern State resulted in a significant drop in RPI of .0072. However, Cajun opponents were responsible for lifting the Cajun RPI .0013 and cushioning some of the blow of playing and losing to a Northwestern State that did plenty of damage to the Cajuns' OWP.

UL RPI Breakdown:
WP: .5758
OWP: .5369
OOWP: .5134
Base RPI: .5408 (Rank #70)
RPI Bonuses: .0066 (USM -> .0024, Rice -> .0024, LSU -> .0018)
Adjusted RPI: .5574 (Rank #61)
Road RPI: .5494 (Rank #55)
SOS: .5291 (Rank #80)
Non-Conference RPI: .5299 (Rank #90)
vs. Top 25 Base RPI: 2-1
vs. Top 50 Base RPI: 3-3
vs. Top 75 Base RPI: 7-5
vs. Top 100 Base RPI: 7-5

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Through Wednesday's games, the Cajuns' Adjusted RPI came in at .5474 (down from .5533 after Tuesday's games), good for a rank of #61. The loss to Northwestern State resulted in a significant drop in RPI of .0072. However, Cajun opponents were responsible for lifting the Cajun RPI .0013 and cushioning some of the blow of playing and losing to a Northwestern State that did plenty of damage to the Cajuns' OWP.

UL RPI Breakdown:
WP: .5758
OWP: .5369
OOWP: .5134
Base RPI: .5408 (Rank #70)
RPI Bonuses: .0066 (USM -> .0024, Rice -> .0024, LSU -> .0018)
Adjusted RPI: .5574 (Rank #61)
Road RPI: .5494 (Rank #55)
SOS: .5291 (Rank #80)
Non-Conference RPI: .5299 (Rank #90)
vs. Top 25 Base RPI: 2-1
vs. Top 50 Base RPI: 3-3
vs. Top 75 Base RPI: 7-5
vs. Top 100 Base RPI: 7-5

Brian _

To demonstrate how playing our conference foes would affect our RPI at this point in time, I have compiled the following list. The below reflects the increase in RPI a single win would have over the following conference opponents. Note that some lower RPI ranked teams may have a more positive effect on the UL RPI than higher ranked RPI teams. Also note that a loss (instead of a win) would result in exactly the same spreads between the teams.

.0067 #24 Troy
.0049 #71 Florida Atlantic
.0045 #70 Western Kentucky
.0040 #41 Florida International
.0030 #96 South Alabama
.0028 #139 Louisiana Monroe
.0020 #116 Arkansas-Little Rock
.0019 #117 Arkansas State
-.0003 #221 Middle Tennessee

Thus, we can see from the above that from purely an RPI perspective ...

1) Playing Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky has more of a positive effect than playing Florida International, even though Florida Atlantic is ranked 30 spots lower in the RPI than Florida International and Western Kentucky is ranked 29 spots lower.
2) Playing Louisiana Monroe in a second series is not a bad deal. The reward is not much less than playing FAU, FIU, or South Alabama. Meanwhile, the reward is better than playing the higher ranked Arkansas-Little Rock, and Arkansas State squads.
3) Playing Middle Tennessee is a losing proposition for the Cajuns. The Cajun RPI drops even with a win.

Brian

[raginsaints]

I thought it'd be worse.

[CajunRed]

Some may think that losing this past Wednesday night to NSU was not a big deal...but, in reality, if you realize how important our RPI will be to us this year, it WAS a big deal. Although our RPI didn't slip as much as we might have though it would have after that loss, it stands in the 60s. That is not good enough for an at large bid. If we continue to win 2 out of 3...and maybe even drop a series...it will probably STAY in the 60s or go even higher. That will mean we stay home...unless we win the SBC tourney.

We may need to win out...or come close...to not have the above happen.

Brian...your thoughts?

igeaux.mobi

[J-Town Cajun]

I am not Brian, but we will need to do at least:

1. Win the SBC tournament
2. Win the regular season SBC
3. Finish 2nd in conference and have an RPI in the top 40
4. Finish 3rd in conference and have an RPI in the top 35
or
5. Finish 4th in conference and have an RPI in the top 30.

The SBC will likely get at least 2 teams in and more than likely 3 with an outside shot of 4 if things fall just right.

[wcd35]

_ I am not Brian, but we will need to do at least:

1. Win the SBC tournament
2. Win the regular season SBC
3. Finish 2nd in conference and have an RPI in the top 40
4. Finish 3rd in conference and have an RPI in the top 35
or
5. Finish 4th in conference and have an RPI in the top 30.

The SBC will likely get at least 2 teams in and more than likely 3 with an outside shot of 4 if things fall just right. _

I think that is probably a pretty accurate assessment

[CajunRed]

_ I am not Brian, but we will need to do at least:

1. Win the SBC tournament
2. Win the regular season SBC
3. Finish 2nd in conference and have an RPI in the top 40
4. Finish 3rd in conference and have an RPI in the top 35
or
5. Finish 4th in conference and have an RPI in the top 30.

The SBC will likely get at least 2 teams in and more than likely 3 with an outside shot of 4 if things fall just right. _

Very good assessment. Problem is...very unlikely to end up with an RPI in top 35. Top 40 is going to be very tough...would probably take us winning out to get there, which is not likely. Our only chances are #1 and #2 above.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Some may think that losing this past Wednesday night to NSU was not a big deal...but, in reality, if you realize how important our RPI will be to us this year, it WAS a big deal.

Correction ... and this is very important to understand ... it is not losing to NSU that was a big deal. It was playing NSU that was a big deal. The actual loss to NSU is no more impactful to the RPI than any other loss.

Let's say that you have two games scheduled ... one against NSU ... and one against Rice. You go 1-1 in those games. It does not matter against whom the win came against. As such, it does not matter against whom the loss came against. The RPI will be the same. When assessing the WP portion of the RPI formula, wins and losses are treated equally ... no matter whom they come against.

However, their OWP and OOWP (which combined is their SOS) does matter and is wholly independent of winning/losing the game. And this is why I say simply playing NSU was a big deal to the Cajun RPI. Simply playing NSU (regardless of a win or loss) brings another game of their OWP and OOWP into the Cajuns' aggregate OWP and OOWP. And remember, OWP and OOWP are 75% of the Base RPI calculation. WP is only 25%. Thus, it is really OWP that is paramount. And this is where NSU killed us ... simply by playing them (regardless of a win or loss). NSU brought another weighted game (2 total for the year) of their 11-21 record into the Cajuns' OWP (11-21 is used for OWP purposes because games vs. the Cajuns do not count in the Cajuns' OWP calculation).

OWP is so important that, as I demonstrated, the Cajuns would be better off playing #286 Savannah State than #164 NSU.

Make sense?

Although our RPI didn't slip as much as we might have though it would have after that loss, it stands in the 60s.

Another important point (and I know you understand this, but it is still an important point to make as you will see below) ... the RPI is not in the 60s. The RPI rank is in the 60s. The RPI is an actual percentage that is calculated based on winning percentage, opponents winning percentage, and opponents' opponents winning percentage ... along with an adjustment made for bonuses and penalties.

In terms of the RPI, playing and losing to NSU affected us exactly as much as we thought it would. We knew beforehand exactly how much it would affect the Cajuns. What we did not know was how many additional adjustments would be made to the RPI due to Cajun opponents play and Cajun opponents' opponents play. And most importantly, we did not know how the RPIs of teams ranked in the vicinity of the Cajuns would be affected, which has a direct impact on the Cajuns' RPI ranking.

One thing we do know that affects how an RPI is translated to an actual RPI ranking is the RPI spread among teams ranked in the vicinity. You can have a huge win and boost to your RPI, but actually not move up in the RPI rankings due to a large spread between you and the next highest team ... or simply because the teams above won games that were good enough to keep an RPI higher than you. You can state the converse case for losses.

Also keep in mind, while the RPI rankings may make it look like the game did not have the expected effect on the RPI ranking, it may have brought the Cajuns in tighter with a group of teams immediately below them. This can result in a delayed effect of dropping in the RPI rankings. It could happen on a day when the teams in question do not even play. Meanwhile, a subsequent loss could send the team reeling in the RPI rankings much more than anticipated, though the actual RPI did not drop much.

That is not good enough for an at large bid. If we continue to win 2 out of 3...and maybe even drop a series...it will probably STAY in the 60s or go even higher. That will mean we stay home...unless we win the SBC tourney.

We may need to win out...or come close...to not have the above happen.

Brian...your thoughts?

We do not need to win out. Winning out just the regular season would leave the Cajuns with an Adjusted RPI of .5919. This assumes that the Cajun opponents' WP (in games not against the Cajuns) and OWP remain constant (and they will change) and the Cajun RPI bonus remains at .0066. In the present RPI rankings, this would be good for #23. Of course, the RPIs of individual teams will also change, but this is a good guide and fills in all of the variables that we know at this time.

Winning out the regular season (not accounting for the conference tournament), obtaining a #23 RPI ranking, and considering the conference strength and expected conference finish (1st or 2nd) by going 22-0 down the stretch, would be the resume' of a strong #2 seed. Especially when the NCAA selection committee sees the 22-0 finish.

Some other scenarios:

- Cajuns finish 18-4: .5737 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #38
- Cajuns finish 17-5: .5691 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #43
- Cajuns finish 15-7: .5600 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #49

As you can see finishing 15-7 is very close to winning 2 out of every three remaining (16-8 would be 2/3). Finishing 15-7, in my mind (I think this would result in a Top 3 Sun Belt finish), would likely put us in the NCAA Tournament as a #3 seed, provided we do reasonably well in our remaining games against the RPI Top25/50/75 ... which means that the six road games against FIU and Troy, along with the home game against Rice are all paramount. Of course, the Cajuns would need to keep pace in the Sun Belt Conference tournament.

Brian

[CajunRed]

I've backed off of the bank roof ledge...FOR NOW.

Correction ... and this is very important to understand ... it is not losing to NSU that was a big deal. It was playing NSU that was a big deal. The actual loss to NSU is no more impactful to the RPI than any other loss.

Let's say that you have two games scheduled ... one against NSU ... and one against Rice. You go 1-1 in those games. It does not matter against whom the win came against. As such, it does not matter against whom the loss came against. The RPI will be the same. When assessing the WP portion of the RPI formula, wins and losses are treated equally ... no matter whom they come against.

However, their OWP and OOWP (which combined is their SOS) does matter and is wholly independent of winning/losing the game. And this is why I say simply playing NSU was a big deal to the Cajun RPI. Simply playing NSU (regardless of a win or loss) brings another game of their OWP and OOWP into the Cajuns' aggregate OWP and OOWP. And remember, OWP and OOWP are 75% of the Base RPI calculation. WP is only 25%. Thus, it is really OWP that is paramount. And this is where NSU killed us ... simply by playing them (regardless of a win or loss). NSU brought another weighted game (2 total for the year) of their 11-21 record into the Cajuns' OWP (11-21 is used for OWP purposes because games vs. the Cajuns do not count in the Cajuns' OWP calculation).

OWP is so important that, as I demonstrated, the Cajuns would be better off playing #286 Savannah State than #164 NSU.

Make sense?


Another important point (and I know you understand this, but it is still an important point to make as you will see below) ... the RPI is not in the 60s. The RPI rank is in the 60s. The RPI is an actual percentage that is calculated based on winning percentage, opponents winning percentage, and opponents' opponents winning percentage ... along with an adjustment made for bonuses and penalties.

In terms of the RPI, playing and losing to NSU affected us exactly as much as we thought it would. We knew beforehand exactly how much it would affect the Cajuns. What we did not know was how many additional adjustments would be made to the RPI due to Cajun opponents play and Cajun opponents' opponents play. And most importantly, we did not know how the RPIs of teams ranked in the vicinity of the Cajuns would be affected, which has a direct impact on the Cajuns' RPI ranking.

One thing we do know that affects how an RPI is translated to an actual RPI ranking is the RPI spread among teams ranked in the vicinity. You can have a huge win and boost to your RPI, but actually not move up in the RPI rankings due to a large spread between you and the next highest team ... or simply because the teams above won games that were good enough to keep an RPI higher than you. You can state the converse case for losses.

Also keep in mind, while the RPI rankings may make it look like the game did not have the expected effect on the RPI ranking, it may have brought the Cajuns in tighter with a group of teams immediately below them. This can result in a delayed effect of dropping in the RPI rankings. It could happen on a day when the teams in question do not even play. Meanwhile, a subsequent loss could send the team reeling in the RPI rankings much more than anticipated, though the actual RPI did not drop much.


We do not need to win out. Winning out just the regular season would leave the Cajuns with an Adjusted RPI of .5919. This assumes that the Cajun opponents' WP (in games not against the Cajuns) and OWP remain constant (and they will change) and the Cajun RPI bonus remains at .0066. In the present RPI rankings, this would be good for #23. Of course, the RPIs of individual teams will also change, but this is a good guide and fills in all of the variables that we know at this time.

Winning out the regular season (not accounting for the conference tournament), obtaining a #23 RPI ranking, and considering the conference strength and expected conference finish (1st or 2nd) by going 22-0 down the stretch, would be the resume' of a strong #2 seed. Especially when the NCAA selection committee sees the 22-0 finish.

Some other scenarios:

- Cajuns finish 18-4: .5737 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #38
- Cajuns finish 17-5: .5691 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #43
- Cajuns finish 15-7: .5600 aRPI, aRPI ranking of #49

As you can see finishing 15-7 is very close to winning 2 out of every three remaining (16-8 would be 2/3). Finishing 15-7, in my mind (I think this would result in a Top 3 Sun Belt finish), would likely put us in the NCAA Tournament as a #3 seed, provided we do reasonably well in our remaining games against the RPI Top25/50/75 ... which means that the six road games against FIU and Troy, along with the home game against Rice are all paramount. Of course, the Cajuns would need to keep pace in the Sun Belt Conference tournament.

Brian

igeaux.mobi

[moorecajun]

So the next time we get a rainout against a bad team, let's just tell them we'll get back with them!

Brian, you are simply amazing with this information. Maybe Northwestern will win out and improve our standing. They sure had a good week.

[Dad04]

_ So the next time we get a rainout against a bad team, let's just tell them we'll get back with them!

When they call just let it go to voicemail........hello.....coach?.....hello?

[GoneGolfin]

_ So the next time we get a rainout against a bad team, let's just tell them we'll get back with them!

Yes ... and more specifically, bad team being defined as one with a poor W-L record. Because, as an example, #214 Southern would be a great team to schedule. They have a 15-12 overall record and are 15-11 in games not involving the Cajuns. Playing #214 Southern is exactly as good RPI-wise as playing #96 South Alabama. Whereas, #163 Northwestern State is a horrible team to schedule.

So, again, we should be looking for teams that have good W-L records, despite their strength of schedule. Because those W-L records are what makes up the Cajuns' OWP, which is 50% of the formula. Only 25% is dedicated to whether you win or lose the game ... meanwhile a similar small amount (25%) is determined by the OWP of your opponents. So, schedule accordingly and do not apologize for working/gaming a flawed system.

Brian, you are simply amazing with this information. Maybe Northwestern will win out and improve our standing. They sure had a good week. _

I am glad you find it useful. Thx. And yes ... hopefully all of our opponents beef up their W-L records. Because that is what it comes down to for the UL baseball team.

Brian