Adjusted RPI (4/9)

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns came in at #62 in the Adjusted RPI (#70 in the Base RPI ... .5393), through Friday's games, with a .5465. This is with the Cajuns gaining back the .0006 lost in RPI bonus Wednesday when Rice slipped to #26 in the Base RPI (Rice is now #25 in the Base RPI).

UL RPI Bonus Breakdown

#7 (Base RPI) Southern Mississippi -> .0024 bonus
#18 (Base RPI) Louisiana State -> .0024 bonus
#25 (Base RPI) Rice -> .0024 bonus
---
Total RPI Bonus -> .0072

The Cajuns need USM, LSU, and Rice to keep winning, else it will adversely affect the Cajuns' RPI in more than one way.

Without the Rice RPI bonus, the Cajuns would come in at #63 in the Adjusted RPI, just .0001 ahead of Mercer (#64), .0003 ahead of Samford (#65), .0007 ahead of Loyola Marymount (#66), and .0010 ahead of Kansas State (#67). The Cajuns are only .0022 removed from the #70 spot without that bonus.

Factoring out all other games being played today (assume that UL - WKU was the only game played today ...

- A win would give the Cajuns a Base RPI of .5443 and an Adjusted RPI of .5515 (an increase of .0050).
- A loss would give the Cajuns a Base RPI of .5360 and an Adjusted RPI of .5432 (a decrease of .0033)

Sun Belt Conference (Adjusted RPI)

#18 Troy .5978
#45 Florida International .5654
#62 Louisiana .5465
#71 Western Kentucky .5405
#99 South Alabama .5249
#106 Arkansas-Little Rock .5222
#107 Florida Atlantic .5217 (FAU is in free-fall)
#112 Louisiana-Monroe .5190
#134 Arkansas State .5071
#241 Middle Tennessee .4377 (significant drag to the conference)

Note that Middle Tennessee has fallen so far, if the Blue Raiders were not in the same conference as the Cajuns, a home loss to the Blue Raiders would result in an RPI penalty of .0012.

Also of note ... remember those three one-run wins over Siena earlier in the year? Had any of those games been a loss, it would have resulted in an RPI penalty of .0018 per loss (the same with Alcorn State).

The Cajuns have no remaining threats on the schedule with respect to RPI penalties and no more opportunities for RPI bonuses.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ The Cajuns came in at #62 in the Adjusted RPI (#70 in the Base RPI ... .5393), through Friday's games, with a .5465. This is with the Cajuns gaining back the .0006 lost in RPI bonus Wednesday when Rice slipped to #26 in the Base RPI (Rice is now #25 in the Base RPI).

Today was a good example of the difference between Boyd's pRPI and Paul Kislanko's (SEBaseball.com) Adjusted RPI. In Boyd's pRPI, he has VMI at #61 with a .548. The Adjusted RPI has VMI behind UL at #63 (and #61 Delaware) with a .5460. Why the significant .0020 difference between the two RPI formulas? Note that at times, you can have as many as seven to ten teams clustered within .0020.

1) VMI likely had a pRPI of between .5475 and .5479 that Boyd rounded to .548. Boyd only keeps three decimal places in his report.
2) VMI has two opponents that had ties this season. These two ties are not accounted for in the pRPI OWP (which is 50% of the formula). They should be as the NCAA includes them in their official RPI report.
3) This final difference may not be an actual difference, but is a possibility and speculation ... VMI has a home loss against #231 Binghamton that results in an RPI penalty of .0012. The pRPI may have missed this penalty.

That said, the pRPI is usually very close to that of the Adjusted RPI and the official NCAA RPI. But my analysis in past seasons has been that the Adjusted RPI either exactly matches the NCAA report ... or is very close ... and is closer than the pRPI.

As for warrennolan.com, forget it. You are wasting your time.

Brian

[CajunRed]

I just read the second section of this, but i confused myself. So I'm going to go into the Spring Game...yell for some Cajuns...then I'm going to read this again when i get out.

Thanks, Brian.


igeaux.mobi

[CajunRed]

At "74" Sunday morning. Falling like a brick.


igeaux.mobi

[LSUalum1]

It's a conspiracy. LSU's losing on purpose so UL's RPI drops. lol.

[cajunfan32]

_ It's a conspiracy. LSU's losing on purpose so UL's RPI drops. lol. _

LOL DAMN Tigers!!!

I'm not an RPI guy so I'm sorry if this is a clueless question but, is our RPI high enough to be an attractive Regional host? my guess would be no but I figured I'd ask anyway

[raginsaints]

not even close

[cajunfan32]

_ not even close _

didnt think so lol

[CajunRed]

Not even close.

Matter of fact...at this point, we are not in post season.

LOL DAMN Tigers!!!

I'm not an RPI guy so I'm sorry if this is a clueless question but, is our RPI high enough to be an attractive Regional host? my guess would be no but I figured I'd ask anyway

igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ LOL DAMN Tigers!!!

I'm not an RPI guy so I'm sorry if this is a clueless question but, is our RPI high enough to be an attractive Regional host? my guess would be no but I figured I'd ask anyway _

The Cajuns are not even close to being considered for an at-large regional bid, much less a regional host bid. The Cajuns need to get their RPI in the 40's to be considered for an at-large bid, unless they win the Sun Belt (which is not looking likely). Troy is the only team in the Sun Belt with a chance to host a regional this season. But presently, I do not think their resume is strong enough.

Brian

[cajunfan32]

_ The Cajuns are not even close to being considered for an at-large regional bid, much less a regional host bid. The Cajuns need to get their RPI in the 40's to be considered for an at-large bid, unless they win the Sun Belt (which is not looking likely). Troy is the only team in the Sun Belt with a chance to host a regional this season. But presently, I do not think their resume is strong enough.

Brian _

I'm guessing there aren't enough games to get up that high in the RPI huh?

[GoneGolfin]

_ I'm guessing there aren't enough games to get up that high in the RPI huh? _

Hosting range? Not likely. If the Cajuns went 29-0 the remainder of the way (includes 4-0 in the SBC Tournament), they would finish with an Adjusted RPI that would presently place them at #21. This of course assumes a constant OWP and OOWP (which it will not be). But that is all we know at this point, the remainder is variable.

Brian