Hurricane Hunters this afternoon were able to identify a closed circulation with the disTurbinece in the Caribbean and the National Hurricane Center has began issuing advisories and forecast for Tropical Depression #15. As of press time this system was very close to becoming a tropical storm and should be upgraded to Tropical Storm Mathew by later this evening.
TD#15 has potential to become a hurricane by this weekend is it heads toward the Central American and Yucatan coastlines. The official forecast track takes this system inland as a hurricane across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula with a stall and possible northward drift beyond 72 hours. The long range forecast remains unclear with possible dissipation over land areas with another tropical system possibly developing next week east of this system and then advancing northward toward South Florida in the first few days of October.
This system is not expected to be a concern to Louisiana at this time as upper level winds and a vigorous cool front will advance toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
However, TD#15 has the potential of becoming a potent hurricane and with a stalling storm the threat of life-threatening flooding across portions of Mexico and Central America will be a distinct possibility.
Long-range models also indicate that there will likely be more tropical activity affecting portions of the Caribbean through the first and possibly second week of October. The most vulnerable U.S. area during this time-frame will likely be Florida but the Gulf of Mexico may be more receptive to tropical activity beyond the first few days of October.


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