The Book: 2002 Baseball

[1stTake]

15-8 sure is nice. If Gabriel had gotten just 6 we would have won Saturday.

Does anyone know what our record would be if we scored 15 points every game?

[PattiTatum]

Turbine-I finally got to see the video clip. That is great. I wish you could do more of that for the last regular season games.

[Turbine]

A few rules on the running lane

---

The runner must be out of the lane AND cause interference.

He is not out simply for being outside the lane.

He could be called for interference even while in the lane. This is a judgment call.

The runner may step out of the lane a step or two before the base if he moves from within the lane to out of it.

If he is out of the lane the whole distance to the base and is hit with a throw, he should be out.

16. The running lane should enter an umpire’s decision-making process only when the ball is being fielded to first from behind the runner.

The lines are part of the lane.

A batter-runner is legally in the lane if he is hit by the throw while his left foot is touching the foul line or his right foot is touching the running-lane line.

A batter-runner is legally in the lane if he is hit by the throw while his left foot is in the air but would have come down touching the foul line or his right foot is in the air but would have come down touching the running-lane line. If the umpire determines that either of those examples would have landed outside the line then interference is the call.

The quality of the throw should help determine whether or not interference has occurred. If the throw had no chance of retiring the runner, the umpire should not call interference.

The batter-runner must leave the running lane the last step before reaching the base. When he is hit at that moment, the umpire should not call interference.

[GoneGolfin]

The following are my Regional Host and National Seed predictions as of 5/15. Note that these are not the selections that I believe should be made. These are my predictions of what the NCAA will do.

National Seeds
1. Clemson
2. Wake Forest
3. Alabama
4. Rice
5. South Carolina
6. Stanford
7. Texas
8. Florida State

Commentary:
Wake Forest could easily grab the #1 national seed by winning the ACC. Wake Forest finishes at Duke while Clemson hosts Florida State. Both are even in the loss column with five. Florida State must play well against Clemson to maintain a national seed. Else, they could lose it to Houston.

Texas becomes a national seed by virtue of winning the tough Big XII. The Horns have also swept Rice this year.

Regional Host Sites:
Clemson (#1 seed)
Wake Forest (#1 seed)
Alabama (#1 seed)
Rice (#1 seed)
South Carolina (#1 seed)
Stanford (#1 seed)
Florida State (#1 seed)
Texas (#1 seed)
Nebraska (#1 seed)
LSU (#1 seed)
Southern California (#2 seed)
Florida (#1 seed)
Ohio State (#2 seed)
Rutgers (#2 seed)
Boston College (#2 seed)
North Carolina (#1 seed)

Commentary:
The region of Louisiana/Texas/Mississippi houses a number of potential regional sites. But the new geographical restrictions will likely force one or more regionals in this area to migrate elseware. I look for this region to obtain roughly twelve bids to the NCAA tournament. The state of Oklahoma will add three more schools. Houston could be the school most affected by the new travel restrictions that the NCAA would like to implement. However, if Houston can gain national seed status, the NCAA could grant the city of Houston two regionals.

I have roughly six schools making the NCAA tournament in the northeast. The NCAA will need at least one site in the northeast. If Boston College (whom plays Notre Dame this weekend) can win the Big East regular season title, I see a regional being played at Fenway Park. Mark it down, the Big East will have a host school. Whether that school is Boston College, Notre Dame, or Rutgers, will depend on this coming weekend. In fact, the northeast really needs two sites. With respect to geography, Rutgers makes the most sense and is my pick for the second northeastern regional.

The north will also need at least one regional. I think the best bet right now is the winner of the Big 10 (Minnesota or Ohio State). The Golden Gophers and Buckeyes meet this weekend and are separated by only half of a game. Nebraska or Wichita State will also host.

The winner of the Georgia Tech/North Carolina series could decide the last regional site host. The middle east coast will need three or four regionals as I have at minimum fourteen schools making the tournament in this part of the country. The NCAA might decide to award a regional to a school like Richmond, instead of a fourth ACC school, as the Virginia/Maryland corridor will likely have three representatives in the tournament.

Brian

[Turbine]

Stats through 05-14-2002

#	Player	AVG	GP-GS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	SLG%
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	COLES, Corey.	0.367	52-49	199	38	73	10	3	6	41	107	.538
20	SNEED, Bryan.	0.298	52-50	181	28	54	10	0	8	41	88	.486
2	CARBONI, Scott.	0.296	29-19	71	20	21	6	0	2	10	33	.465
4	LAMBIN, Chase.	0.293	53-51	191	42	56	16	0	12	44	108	.565
23	WILSON, Jason.	0.289	45-38	149	29	43	11	0	0	15	54	.362
17	SALOOM, Brad.	0.282	45-34	124	20	35	3	2	3	25	51	.411
30	MORRIS, Dallas.	0.275	32-20	69	17	19	3	0	1	6	25	.362
12	BOURQUE, Justin.	0.259	49-42	158	28	41	5	2	4	19	62	.392
5	REDMOND, Charles.	0.256	44-22	78	15	20	1	2	0	3	25	.321
27	HAWKE, Phillip.	0.255	47-36	106	20	27	5	0	2	13	38	.358
40	SHELTON, Robert.	0.241	39-28	87	11	21	4	1	2	17	33	.379
28	KABEL, Mike.	0.206	35-28	97	9	20	2	1	2	16	30	.309
29	ELLIS, Lloyd.	0.186	29-16	59	10	11	2	1	0	5	15	.254
19	PREAU, Kevin.	0.167	29-9	54	9	9	1	1	0	2	12	.222
8	VICKNAIR, Doug.	0.224	25-18	58	12	13	2	1	5	10	32	.552
25	MORGAN, Justin.	0.171	35-8	35	1	6	0	0	0	0	6	.171
1	VERRET, Chad.	0.171	44-5	41	9	7	4	0	0	5	11	.268
22	REED, Scott.	0.167	9-1	12	1	2	1	0	0	1	3	.25
6	RAMOS, Alberto.	0.118	16-3	17	1	2	0	0	0	0	2	.118
32	DEES, Ray.	0.091	15-1	11	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	.091
31	ARDOIN, Kevin.	0	1-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	GABRIEL, Justin.	0	1-0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
0	Totals.	0.268	53-53	1797	325	481	86	14	47	273	736	0.41
0	Opponents.	0.251	53-53	1822	238	458	95	9	37	208	682	0.374

[Turbine]

Stats continued

Player	BB	HBP	SO	GDP	OB%	SF	SH	SB-ATT	PO	A	E	FLD%
COLES, Corey.	11	2	28	4	0.402	2	7	18-21	70	6	3	0.962
SNEED, Bryan.	8	12	28	1	0.365	2	1	37480	66	0	1	0.985
CARBONI, Scott.	16	3	17	1	0.44	1	0	37479	2	17	7	0.731
LAMBIN, Chase.	22	1	43	0	0.362	4	5	37386	73	126	18	0.917
WILSON, Jason.	8	2	32	2	0.327	3	1	19-22	76	1	0	1
SALOOM, Brad.	20	7	28	1	0.4	4	1	37576	25	32	2	0.966
MORRIS, Dallas.	10	5	14	1	0.4	1	5	37351	16	44	5	0.923
BOURQUE, Justin.	20	8	25	1	0.369	1	0	14-17	66	117	13	0.934
REDMOND, Charles.	13	3	23	0	0.383	0	0	15-19	21	0	2	0.913
HAWKE, Phillip.	32	4	29	0	0.441	1	1	37292	335	14	8	0.978
SHELTON, Robert.	18	6	20	2	0.398	2	1	37320	14	59	6	0.924
KABEL, Mike.	3	3	22	3	0.252	0	0	37257	200	22	6	0.974
ELLIS, Lloyd.	13	1	18	0	0.342	0	0	37320	142	11	0	1
PREAU, Kevin.	7	2	21	0	0.286	0	1	37350	18	0	1	0.947
VICKNAIR, Doug.	5	3	21	1	0.318	0	1	37259	114	13	2	0.984
MORGAN, Justin.	1	1	9	0	0.216	0	3	0-3	126	10	0	1
VERRET, Chad.	4	0	18	0	0.244	0	1	37352	23	2	0	1
REED, Scott.	0	0	4	1	0.167	0	0	0-0	6	1	1	0.875
RAMOS, Alberto.	0	0	12	0	0.118	0	0	37258	3	0	0	1
DEES, Ray.	0	0	5	0	0.091	0	0	37318	1	6	1	0.875
ARDOIN, Kevin.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	1	7	1	0.889
GABRIEL, Justin.	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	7	30	2	0.949
Totals.	211	63	417	18	0.361	21	28	124-170	1420	588	83	0.96
Opponents.	195	37	439	26	0.334	14	29	56-82	1395	527	97	0.952

[GoneGolfin]

Originally posted by Turbine
Wow very imressive work.

Who do you think has the edge between Wichita and Nebraska?

With respect to strength of the squads, as determined by the NCAA, they are evenly matched. The NCAA might give Wichita State a slight edge due to the single game victory over Nebraska in Lincoln.

As far as a regional is concerned, Nebraska has an edge because they are further north. Having a regional in Lincoln will be more conducive to hosting schools such as Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Minnesota (provided they do not host themselves), ... etc.

Brian

Evidently, not one northeast school submitted a bid to host an NCAA baseball regional this year (deadline is today, initial paperwork deadline was May 3rd). In addition, Richmond did not bid. Hence, neither Boston College nor Rutgers will be hosting.

A recent article quoting the NCAA's Jim Wright was rather interesting. ?It is not going to have anything to do with if you?re a top seed or how good your bid is,? Wright said. ?It?s all going to be about geography. That means there?s no guarantee that a top-seeded team would host.?

What is going to happen now with respect to regional sites? Who knows?

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

2002 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections
The following are my predictions for the entire field of 64 as of 5/22. Note that these are not the selections that I believe should be made. They are my predictions of what the NCAA will do. These projections will be updated at the conclusion of the conference tournaments (Sunday) to account for any upset bid winners.

Process:
1) Select the tournament field of 64 teams
2) Select the sixteen #1 seeds and from that list declare eight national seeds
3) Select the regional host sites with primary emphasis on the geographic representation of the tournament field. Secondary considerations include the criteria used in past years.
4) Allocate tournament field to regional sites based on geography. Schools from the same conference cannot meet in first round games.
5) Seed teams within regional.
6) Pair regional sites for super-regional matchups. These super-regional matchups will take into account:
a) Strength of the #1 seeds representing the respective regionals
b) Geography of the regionals
c) National seed regionals must be paired with non-national seed regionals
d) #1 seeds from the same conference cannot be paired against each other in a potential super-regional matchup (I am assuming this rule still applies ? so until further notice)

2002 NCAA Tournament Field:
The field consists of 30 conference automatic qualifiers and 34 at-large selections. Regular season champions, and in the case of the Pac 10 ? regular season leaders, are assumed to win their respective conference automatic bid.

Boyd Nation?s pRPI is listed in [].

America East Conference: (1)
Maine (projected automatic bid) [81]

Atlantic Coast Conference: (5)
Florida State (projected automatic bid) [2], Wake Forest [3], North Carolina [12], Clemson [1], Georgia Tech [5]

Atlantic Sun Conference: (3)
Central Florida (projected automatic bid) [44], Florida Atlantic [48], Stetson [25]

Atlantic-10 Conference: (1)
Richmond (projected automatic bid) [15]

Big East Conference: (3)
Notre Dame (projected automatic bid) [49], Virginia Tech [67], Boston College [68]

Big South Conference: (2)
Coastal Carolina (projected automatic bid) [32], Elon [39]

Big Ten Conference: (2)
Minnesota (projected automatic bid) [82], Ohio State [106]

Big 12 Conference: (6)
Texas (projected automatic bid) [10], Nebraska [17], Texas Tech [22], Oklahoma [29], Oklahoma State [42], Baylor [24]

Big West Conference: (3)
California-State Northridge (projected automatic bid) [37], California State-Fullerton [23], Long Beach State [30]

Colonial Athletic Association: (3)
James Madison (projected automatic bid) [21], North Carolina-Wilmington [41], Delaware [45]

Conference USA: (4)
Houston (projected automatic bid) [6], Louisville [33], Texas Christian [43], Southern Mississippi [54]

Horizon League: (1)
Illinois-Chicago (projected automatic bid) [134]

Ivy Group: (1)
Harvard (automatic bid already secured) [191]

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: (1)
Marist (projected automatic bid) [65]

Mid-American Conference: (1)
Bowling Green State (projected automatic bid) [146]

Mid-Continent Conference: (1)
Oral Roberts (automatic bid) [145]

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: (1)
Bethune-Cookman (automatic bid already secured) [66]

Missouri Valley Conference: (3)
Wichita State (projected automatic bid) [20], Creighton [50], Southwest Missouri State [46]

Mountain West Conference: (1)
San Diego State (projected automatic bid) [84]

Northeast Conference: (1)
Central Connecticut State (automatic bid already secured) [197]

Ohio Valley Conference: (1)
Southeast Missouri State (projected automatic bid) [92]

Pacific-10 Conference: (3)
Southern California (projected automatic bid) [31], Washington [83], Stanford [11], Arizona State [34]

Patriot League: (1)
Navy (automatic bid already secured) [173]

Southeastern Conference: (6)
South Carolina (projected automatic bid) [4], Alabama [13], Florida [9], LSU [8], Auburn [23], Georgia [16]

Southern Conference: (1)
The Citadel (projected automatic bid) [98]

Southland Conference: (1)
Northwestern State (projected automatic bid) [63]

Southwestern Athletic Conference: (1)
Southern (automatic bid already secured) [75]

Sun Belt Conference: (2)
South Alabama (automatic bid) [18], Louisiana [14]
Western Athletic Conference: (2)
Rice (automatic bid already secured) [7], San Jose State [55]

West Coast Conference: (1)
Pepperdine (projected automatic bid) [161]

Independents: (1)
Miami [19]

Bubble Teams:
Arkansas [36], East Carolina [38], Florida International [26], George Washington [72], Indiana [103], Michigan State [79], Mississippi [27], Mississippi State [47], Oregon State [77], Rutgers [53], South Florida [40], Texas A&M [52], Tulane [56], Western Kentucky [62]

Commentary:
Conference play is extremely important to the NCAA committee. No team with a losing record in conference play has made the NCAA tournament since the inception of the new format in 1999. Hence, winning in conference and conference finish is paramount. I performed a little data mining exercise on the 2000 and 2001 NCAA tournaments (1999 data not available at press time). With respect to at-large bids, not once in these two tournaments did the NCAA award an at-large bid to a school placing behind a fellow conference school not receiving a bid to the tournament.

Florida International finished the season above .500 in Sun Belt conference play by sweeping Middle Tennessee State on the final weekend. However, the Golden Panthers still finished fourth in the conference, two games in the loss column behind Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky also swept Florida International this year. The NCAA likely will not issue Florida International an at-large bid without Western Kentucky in the tournament. A Western Kentucky ? Florida International SBC Tournament final will likely earn Florida International a spot in the NCAA tournament. This is because a) either Western Kentucky wins the SBC tournament (gaining an automatic bid) and the NCAA does not need to skip over Western Kentucky in the standings to get to Florida International or b) Florida International wins the tournament and the automatic bid. The bottom line is that Golden Panther fans should be pulling for Western Kentucky to either win the SBC tournament or lose in the finals to Florida International. Upsets in conference tournament championships will hurt these bubble teams. That is, teams that normally would not make the NCAA tournament field winning automatic bids and gaining that conference an additional bid it would not have had the upset not occurred. Schools such as Western Kentucky, Florida International, Delaware, Southern Mississippi, Boston College, and Southwest Missouri State will be affected most if these upsets occur.

Texas A&M and Mississippi (pRPI of 27) likely played themselves out of at-large bids this weekend. Mississippi failed to make the SEC conference tournament and finished under .500 in SEC play. Mississippi has lost their last six SEC games and is 3-7 over their last ten games. Mississippi is done for the season. Texas A&M finished one game under .500 in Big XII play. Unless the Aggies perform well in the Big XII tournament, their season is likely over.

East Carolina (pRPI of 38) lost 2/3 this weekend to finish sixth in Conference USA. I do not see the NCAA leapfrogging Tulane to admit East Carolina to the NCAA tournament field. Not unless East Carolina makes the finals of the Conference USA tournament. The NCAA is not going to take seven Conference USA teams.

National Seeds:
1. Florida State
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. Rice
5. Wake Forest
6. Clemson
7. Houston
8. Stanford

NCAA Regional Tournament #1 Seeds:
Florida State, South Carolina, Texas, Rice, Wake Forest, Clemson, Houston, Stanford, Georgia Tech, LSU, Alabama, North Carolina, Florida, Wichita State, South Alabama, Nebraska

Commentary:
Florida State made an impressive run to close the season and win the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Seminoles are deserving of a #1 national seed, but they will need to prove themselves in Omaha. The College World Series has not been kind to Florida State.

Texas is moving up and ran away with the Big XII title in impressive fashion. A season sweep of Rice earns the Longhorns the #3 seed. Houston creeps into the national seed picture with its impressive out of conference schedule, strong pRPI, and Conference USA championship. An SEC tournament championship could vault surging LSU into the national seed picture.

The NCAA will undoubtedly, once again, emphasize conference regular season champions and conference tournament champions when determining #1 seeds.

NCAA Regional Hosts:
Clemson
Wake Forest
Alabama
Rice
South Carolina
Stanford
Texas
Florida State
LSU
Florida
Wichita State
Nebraska
Ohio State
Notre Dame
California State-Fullerton
Southern California

Commentary:
The Louisiana/Texas region houses a number of potential regional sites. But the new geographical restrictions will likely force one or more regionals in this area to migrate elsewhere. Houston could be the school most affected by the new travel restrictions that the NCAA would like to implement. The state of California really needs a third regional, which could cost the Cougars a chance to host the second regional in the city of Houston.

The north, especially the northeast, is hurting for regional sites. Boston College and Rutgers failed to submit bids. This means that there are a number of northern schools that must travel. Richmond might have also been a possibility, but the Spiders do not have the facilities to host and did not want to host in the local minor league ballpark. Hence, a bid was not submitted. Notre Dame is a very likely host site as is Ohio State. Minnesota is another candidate.
NCAA Regional Projections:

Tallahassee, Florida
1. Florida State (N1)
2. Central Florida
3. Miami
4. Bethune Cookman

versus

Gainesville, Florida
1. Florida
2. Georgia
3. Stetson
4. Florida Atlantic

Columbia, South Carolina
1. South Carolina (N2)
2. Coastal Carolina
3. Virginia Tech
4. Citadel

versus

Lincoln, Nebraska
1. Nebraska
2. Creighton
3. Minnesota
4. Illinois-Chicago

Austin, Texas
1. Texas (N3)
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas Christian
4. Oral Roberts

versus

Fullerton, California
1. South Alabama
2. California State-Fullerton
3. Arizona State
4. Washington

Houston, Texas
1. Rice (N4)
2. Louisiana
3. Oklahoma State
4. Maine

versus

Baton Rouge, Louisiana
1. LSU
2. Baylor
3. Northwestern State
4. Southern

Winston Salem, North Carolina
1. Wake Forest (N5)
2. James Madison
3. Elon
4. Delaware

versus

Wichita, Kansas
1. Wichita State
2. Oklahoma
3. Southwest Missouri State
4. Southeast Missouri State

Clemson, South Carolina
1. Clemson (N6)
2. Richmond
3. North Carolina-Wilmington
4. Navy

versus

Tuscaloosa, Alabama
1. Alabama
2. Auburn
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Central Connecticut State

Columbus, Ohio
1. North Carolina
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State
4. Bowling Green State

versus

South Bend, Indiana
1. Houston (N7)
2. Notre Dame
3. Marist
4. Harvard

Palo Alto, California
1. Stanford (N8)
2. California State-Northridge
3. San Jose State
4. Pepperdine

versus

Los Angeles, California
1. Georgia Tech
2. Southern California
3. Long Beach State
4. San Diego State

Commentary:
Note that the #1 seeds not hosting will likely be traveling to remote areas. The NCAA will sacrifice one team traveling in order to keep two or more teams close to home. Also note that the Big XII has six schools in the tournament. Yet, there are only two Texas regionals. Therefore, it will be difficult to have an all Louisiana regional in Baton Rouge. Since no more than two Big XII schools can be assigned to any one region, there is a decent chance that a Big XII school will be assigned to Baton Rouge with the University of Louisiana traveling to the state of Texas. This allows four or five Big XII teams to stay in the Texas/Louisiana corridor while keeping Baton Rouge a mostly Louisiana regional. It also helps balance the regionals while keeping schools close to home. Should the University of Houston be awarded a regional, this would change. But this would cause problems in other part of the country, as regional sites are needed elsewhere.

Brian

[Turbine]

An extremely ironic twist will occur on Thursday. Louisiana's Justin Gabriel will face Sunbelt "Baseball Pitcher of the Year" and WKU pitcher Ryan Bicondoa.

After suffering a couple of Friday losses going up against the likes of Ryan Bicondoa, Justin was moved to Saturday rotation.

What comes to mind is the coaching staff not wanting Justin to have to go toe to toe with the Bicondoa's of the Sunbelt?

Well after just his second weekend of getting first nod Andy Gros gets rocked in the second inning against USA, and the Cajuns end up losing 10-3. This is an ironic twist in itself, as 3 runs was the only margin needed for all the other victors in the Sunbelt on Wednesday.

So on Thursday it is Justin Gabriel up against Ryan Bicondoa. I just thought we were trying to avoid this scenario? Perhaps this time there will be a different result.

[Turbine]

Justing Gabriel retires the first nine batters he faces.

[Turbine]

A masterful pitching duel through nine innings. 1-1

Louisiana 4-1 on the year in extra inning games.

[Turbine]

Bottom of the 10th after Robichaux had Gabriel intentionally walk a WKU player, Justin loses control and gives up a bases loaded walk.

Waiting for the NCAA