2002 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections
The following are my predictions for the entire field of 64 as of 5/22. Note that these are not the selections that I believe should be made. They are my predictions of what the NCAA will do. These projections will be updated at the conclusion of the conference tournaments (Sunday) to account for any upset bid winners.
Process:
1) Select the tournament field of 64 teams
2) Select the sixteen #1 seeds and from that list declare eight national seeds
3) Select the regional host sites with primary emphasis on the geographic representation of the tournament field. Secondary considerations include the criteria used in past years.
4) Allocate tournament field to regional sites based on geography. Schools from the same conference cannot meet in first round games.
5) Seed teams within regional.
6) Pair regional sites for super-regional matchups. These super-regional matchups will take into account:
a) Strength of the #1 seeds representing the respective regionals
b) Geography of the regionals
c) National seed regionals must be paired with non-national seed regionals
d) #1 seeds from the same conference cannot be paired against each other in a potential super-regional matchup (I am assuming this rule still applies ? so until further notice)
2002 NCAA Tournament Field:
The field consists of 30 conference automatic qualifiers and 34 at-large selections. Regular season champions, and in the case of the Pac 10 ? regular season leaders, are assumed to win their respective conference automatic bid.
Boyd Nation?s pRPI is listed in [].
America East Conference: (1)
Maine (projected automatic bid) [81]
Atlantic Coast Conference: (5)
Florida State (projected automatic bid) [2], Wake Forest [3], North Carolina [12], Clemson [1], Georgia Tech [5]
Atlantic Sun Conference: (3)
Central Florida (projected automatic bid) [44], Florida Atlantic [48], Stetson [25]
Atlantic-10 Conference: (1)
Richmond (projected automatic bid) [15]
Big East Conference: (3)
Notre Dame (projected automatic bid) [49], Virginia Tech [67], Boston College [68]
Big South Conference: (2)
Coastal Carolina (projected automatic bid) [32], Elon [39]
Big Ten Conference: (2)
Minnesota (projected automatic bid) [82], Ohio State [106]
Big 12 Conference: (6)
Texas (projected automatic bid) [10], Nebraska [17], Texas Tech [22], Oklahoma [29], Oklahoma State [42], Baylor [24]
Big West Conference: (3)
California-State Northridge (projected automatic bid) [37], California State-Fullerton [23], Long Beach State [30]
Colonial Athletic Association: (3)
James Madison (projected automatic bid) [21], North Carolina-Wilmington [41], Delaware [45]
Conference USA: (4)
Houston (projected automatic bid) [6], Louisville [33], Texas Christian [43], Southern Mississippi [54]
Horizon League: (1)
Illinois-Chicago (projected automatic bid) [134]
Ivy Group: (1)
Harvard (automatic bid already secured) [191]
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: (1)
Marist (projected automatic bid) [65]
Mid-American Conference: (1)
Bowling Green State (projected automatic bid) [146]
Mid-Continent Conference: (1)
Oral Roberts (automatic bid) [145]
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: (1)
Bethune-Cookman (automatic bid already secured) [66]
Missouri Valley Conference: (3)
Wichita State (projected automatic bid) [20], Creighton [50], Southwest Missouri State [46]
Mountain West Conference: (1)
San Diego State (projected automatic bid) [84]
Northeast Conference: (1)
Central Connecticut State (automatic bid already secured) [197]
Ohio Valley Conference: (1)
Southeast Missouri State (projected automatic bid) [92]
Pacific-10 Conference: (3)
Southern California (projected automatic bid) [31], Washington [83], Stanford [11], Arizona State [34]
Patriot League: (1)
Navy (automatic bid already secured) [173]
Southeastern Conference: (6)
South Carolina (projected automatic bid) [4], Alabama [13], Florida [9], LSU [8], Auburn [23], Georgia [16]
Southern Conference: (1)
The Citadel (projected automatic bid) [98]
Southland Conference: (1)
Northwestern State (projected automatic bid) [63]
Southwestern Athletic Conference: (1)
Southern (automatic bid already secured) [75]
Sun Belt Conference: (2)
South Alabama (automatic bid) [18], Louisiana [14]
Western Athletic Conference: (2)
Rice (automatic bid already secured) [7], San Jose State [55]
West Coast Conference: (1)
Pepperdine (projected automatic bid) [161]
Independents: (1)
Miami [19]
Bubble Teams:
Arkansas [36], East Carolina [38], Florida International [26], George Washington [72], Indiana [103], Michigan State [79], Mississippi [27], Mississippi State [47], Oregon State [77], Rutgers [53], South Florida [40], Texas A&M [52], Tulane [56], Western Kentucky [62]
Commentary:
Conference play is extremely important to the NCAA committee. No team with a losing record in conference play has made the NCAA tournament since the inception of the new format in 1999. Hence, winning in conference and conference finish is paramount. I performed a little data mining exercise on the 2000 and 2001 NCAA tournaments (1999 data not available at press time). With respect to at-large bids, not once in these two tournaments did the NCAA award an at-large bid to a school placing behind a fellow conference school not receiving a bid to the tournament.
Florida International finished the season above .500 in Sun Belt conference play by sweeping Middle Tennessee State on the final weekend. However, the Golden Panthers still finished fourth in the conference, two games in the loss column behind Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky also swept Florida International this year. The NCAA likely will not issue Florida International an at-large bid without Western Kentucky in the tournament. A Western Kentucky ? Florida International SBC Tournament final will likely earn Florida International a spot in the NCAA tournament. This is because a) either Western Kentucky wins the SBC tournament (gaining an automatic bid) and the NCAA does not need to skip over Western Kentucky in the standings to get to Florida International or b) Florida International wins the tournament and the automatic bid. The bottom line is that Golden Panther fans should be pulling for Western Kentucky to either win the SBC tournament or lose in the finals to Florida International. Upsets in conference tournament championships will hurt these bubble teams. That is, teams that normally would not make the NCAA tournament field winning automatic bids and gaining that conference an additional bid it would not have had the upset not occurred. Schools such as Western Kentucky, Florida International, Delaware, Southern Mississippi, Boston College, and Southwest Missouri State will be affected most if these upsets occur.
Texas A&M and Mississippi (pRPI of 27) likely played themselves out of at-large bids this weekend. Mississippi failed to make the SEC conference tournament and finished under .500 in SEC play. Mississippi has lost their last six SEC games and is 3-7 over their last ten games. Mississippi is done for the season. Texas A&M finished one game under .500 in Big XII play. Unless the Aggies perform well in the Big XII tournament, their season is likely over.
East Carolina (pRPI of 38) lost 2/3 this weekend to finish sixth in Conference USA. I do not see the NCAA leapfrogging Tulane to admit East Carolina to the NCAA tournament field. Not unless East Carolina makes the finals of the Conference USA tournament. The NCAA is not going to take seven Conference USA teams.
National Seeds:
1. Florida State
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. Rice
5. Wake Forest
6. Clemson
7. Houston
8. Stanford
NCAA Regional Tournament #1 Seeds:
Florida State, South Carolina, Texas, Rice, Wake Forest, Clemson, Houston, Stanford, Georgia Tech, LSU, Alabama, North Carolina, Florida, Wichita State, South Alabama, Nebraska
Commentary:
Florida State made an impressive run to close the season and win the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Seminoles are deserving of a #1 national seed, but they will need to prove themselves in Omaha. The College World Series has not been kind to Florida State.
Texas is moving up and ran away with the Big XII title in impressive fashion. A season sweep of Rice earns the Longhorns the #3 seed. Houston creeps into the national seed picture with its impressive out of conference schedule, strong pRPI, and Conference USA championship. An SEC tournament championship could vault surging LSU into the national seed picture.
The NCAA will undoubtedly, once again, emphasize conference regular season champions and conference tournament champions when determining #1 seeds.
NCAA Regional Hosts:
Clemson
Wake Forest
Alabama
Rice
South Carolina
Stanford
Texas
Florida State
LSU
Florida
Wichita State
Nebraska
Ohio State
Notre Dame
California State-Fullerton
Southern California
Commentary:
The Louisiana/Texas region houses a number of potential regional sites. But the new geographical restrictions will likely force one or more regionals in this area to migrate elsewhere. Houston could be the school most affected by the new travel restrictions that the NCAA would like to implement. The state of California really needs a third regional, which could cost the Cougars a chance to host the second regional in the city of Houston.
The north, especially the northeast, is hurting for regional sites. Boston College and Rutgers failed to submit bids. This means that there are a number of northern schools that must travel. Richmond might have also been a possibility, but the Spiders do not have the facilities to host and did not want to host in the local minor league ballpark. Hence, a bid was not submitted. Notre Dame is a very likely host site as is Ohio State. Minnesota is another candidate.
NCAA Regional Projections:
Tallahassee, Florida
1. Florida State (N1)
2. Central Florida
3. Miami
4. Bethune Cookman
versus
Gainesville, Florida
1. Florida
2. Georgia
3. Stetson
4. Florida Atlantic
Columbia, South Carolina
1. South Carolina (N2)
2. Coastal Carolina
3. Virginia Tech
4. Citadel
versus
Lincoln, Nebraska
1. Nebraska
2. Creighton
3. Minnesota
4. Illinois-Chicago
Austin, Texas
1. Texas (N3)
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas Christian
4. Oral Roberts
versus
Fullerton, California
1. South Alabama
2. California State-Fullerton
3. Arizona State
4. Washington
Houston, Texas
1. Rice (N4)
2. Louisiana
3. Oklahoma State
4. Maine
versus
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
1. LSU
2. Baylor
3. Northwestern State
4. Southern
Winston Salem, North Carolina
1. Wake Forest (N5)
2. James Madison
3. Elon
4. Delaware
versus
Wichita, Kansas
1. Wichita State
2. Oklahoma
3. Southwest Missouri State
4. Southeast Missouri State
Clemson, South Carolina
1. Clemson (N6)
2. Richmond
3. North Carolina-Wilmington
4. Navy
versus
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
1. Alabama
2. Auburn
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Central Connecticut State
Columbus, Ohio
1. North Carolina
2. Louisville
3. Ohio State
4. Bowling Green State
versus
South Bend, Indiana
1. Houston (N7)
2. Notre Dame
3. Marist
4. Harvard
Palo Alto, California
1. Stanford (N8)
2. California State-Northridge
3. San Jose State
4. Pepperdine
versus
Los Angeles, California
1. Georgia Tech
2. Southern California
3. Long Beach State
4. San Diego State
Commentary:
Note that the #1 seeds not hosting will likely be traveling to remote areas. The NCAA will sacrifice one team traveling in order to keep two or more teams close to home. Also note that the Big XII has six schools in the tournament. Yet, there are only two Texas regionals. Therefore, it will be difficult to have an all Louisiana regional in Baton Rouge. Since no more than two Big XII schools can be assigned to any one region, there is a decent chance that a Big XII school will be assigned to Baton Rouge with the University of Louisiana traveling to the state of Texas. This allows four or five Big XII teams to stay in the Texas/Louisiana corridor while keeping Baton Rouge a mostly Louisiana regional. It also helps balance the regionals while keeping schools close to home. Should the University of Houston be awarded a regional, this would change. But this would cause problems in other part of the country, as regional sites are needed elsewhere.
Brian
Regional Host Predictions .
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Baseball stats throough 05-14-2002
.continued
Sunbelt gets four Hurray!
