Tropical Storm Alex emerged from the Yucatan overnight and has strengthened this morning. Alex is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early tomorrow. As the center of circulation moves over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, and the southern Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter prime conditions for intensifying. The hot water, low wind shear, and moist air in the upper levels could put Alex into a "Rapid Intensification" process. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Alex to be close to Category 3 intensity prior to a second landfall along the Texas/Mexico border.
Right now it appears that high pressure building over the southeastern United States will keep Alex on a northwest or west-northwest track. This should keep the storm well away from Louisiana and the oil spill area of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly winds along the northern Gulf Coast should increase over the next couple of days, so tides will run above normal. Coastal flooding is possible, but no advisories have been posted at this time. Also, those southerly winds will transport moisture northward toward Louisiana, so rain chances will be slightly higher than normal through mid-week.
For the areas where the center of Alex is expected to impact, winds along the Mexico/Texas coastline could exceed 100mph. Moderate storm surges are possible from Corpus Christi southward. As Alex moves inland over northern Mexico, heavy rains could cause flash flooding in desert and mountainous areas. Levees will be closely watched along the Rio Grande through McAllen and Brownsville.

Permalink | Comments