A tropical disTurbinece known as "93L" is moving westward across the Caribbean Sea near the Dominican Republic and is looking more interesting this morning. This tropical wave has been moving across the Atlantic and eastern Caribbean for about a week now. Heavy rains are expected across the Dominican Republic and Haiti which could cause flooding over the next two days.
Computer models are picking up on this disTurbinece, and many develop it into the first tropical depression of the season tomorrow or Thursday. Wind shear values are low and water temperatures are above 80 degrees across the central and western Caribbean. In addition, "heat content" values south of Cuba toward the Yucatan is very high, and the 80 degree water goes fairly deep below the surface in these areas. All of these conditions are favorable for tropical development. The National Hurricane Center puts a 40-50% chance for development over the next two days.
The models are pretty consistent in the track of this disTurbinece. Most drag it toward the Yucatan by the weekend, with a continued westward track toward Mexico. At least one dependable model turns it northwest through the Yucatan Channel toward the Gulf of Mexico.

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