First, a moment of silence for the Utah State Aggies.
The Cinderella Watch is still mourning the Selection Sunday snub of the team ranked No. 2 in ESPN.com's final regular season Mid-Major Top 10. How a team with 25 victories and just three defeats -- the fewest, by the way, of any team not invited to the Dance -- could not be worthy of an at-large bid remains a mystery.
But outside Utah State having to settle for the NIT, the committee actually treated the mid-majors fairly. Of those in need of an at-large bid after early conference stumbles, only the Aggies can complain. UTEP, Southern Illinois, Air Force and BYU were each rewarded for outstanding regular seasons.
The ACC, Big East and SEC can cry all they want about being slighted. But come on: Six bids each is enough.
Besides, it's much more fun to root for an 11th-seeded Air Force team that won 12 of 14 conference games; or a UTEP squad that won 24 games instead of losing 24, rather than for an LSU team that lost seven of its last eight games, or Florida State, which really impressed us with those five straight losses to finish the season.
As a champion of mid-major teams from Manhattan to Pacific, the Cinderella Watch applauds the committee on a job well done. Now, on to the business of picking a Cinderella in 2004.
As those who follow the Cinderella Watch know, we've been tracking low- and mid-major teams all season. We've seen our share of Austin Peays and Creightons come and go, as well as watched in awe as East Tennessee State and Western Michigan didn't lose for months on end. But this is when the Watch gets serious, identifying those teams in the first week that will ruin so many brackets.
While everyone can pencil in a few No. 1s in the Final Four and a couple of other marquee names to join 'em in San Antonio, the real science of Bracketology comes in the first round. Now, we're not suggesting you put your faith in every double-digit seed in the bracket. In fact, stay away from those No. 16 seeds (0-76), and be careful about the No. 15s as well (3-73: winners were Hampton, '01; Coppin State, '97; and Santa Clara, '95).
But don't limit your search to finding Cinderellas only in the always-dangerous 5-12 games. Yes, at least one No. 12 seed has won in 17 of the 19 tournaments since the bracket was expanded to 64 (now 65) teams in 1985. But the 13s and 14s have combined to win 25 games since 1985.
In fact, there have been 106 teams seeded 10th or higher that have won first-round games. Of those, 33 have gone on to win two days later and reach the Sweet 16. In fact, a No. 10 seed has reached the Sweet 16 a total of 11 times . which is just five less times than those No. 2 seeds they're paired up with most of the time in the second round. (Ironically, Gonzaga is a No. 2 seed in the Phoenix Region this year. Think maybe the school that put away its glass slipper a few years ago just may see its dreams of a Final Four shattered?)
So, what does all this mean for this year? Plenty. And it's the job of the Cinderella Watch to help figure it all out. So, here are five teams seeded 10 through 14 that are capable of producing an upset.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Record: 20-8
Conference
Sun Belt
Region
Phoenix
First-Round Victim
North Carolina State
No. 14 Seed
Why They Can Win: First off, any No. 14 that wins a first-round game usually does so because the No. 3 seed played poorly. And of those teams seeded third, NC State has been the most inconsistent of late. While the Wolfpack finished second in the ACC, they also lost five of nine games down the stretch and let Maryland come back from 20 points down in the second half of the ACC semifinals. As for the Ragin' Cajuns, the Sun Belt champions have won five straight and 14 of 17 down the stretch. An athletic bunch, Lafayette started to show signs of its potential as the calendar turned to 2004, giving Arizona all it wanted in a 72-69 loss on the Wildcats' court. The Cajuns have five players who average at least nine points. The team hit its stride with seven straight wins once Orien Greene joined sharpshooting Brad Boyd and company. And if the newcomer's name sounds familiar, it should. Greene started his career at Florida, where he was part of two NCAA teams. Green won't be in awe of the Dance, and could calm the other Cajuns -- like leading scorer Antoine Landry -- who'll be in their first Dance.
The rest of the story
By Ron Buck
ESPN.com
Cinderella Story!!
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