2010 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections

[GoneGolfin]

National Seeds:
1. Arizona State
2. Virginia
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Coastal Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Georgia Tech
8. South Carolina

Tempe, Arizona
1. Arizona State (N1)
2. Mississippi
3. New Mexico
4. Stony Brook
vs.
Fort Worth, Texas
1. Texas Christian
2. Texas A&M
3. Oregon
4. Grambling State

Charlottesville, Virginia
1. Virginia (N2)
2. College of Charleston
3. St. John's
4. Virginia Commonwealth
vs.
Norman, Oklahoma
1. Oklahoma
2. Vanderbilt
3. Illinois State
4. Oral Roberts

Gainesville, Florida
1. Florida (N3)
2. Florida Atlantic
3. North Carolina State
4. Dartmouth
vs.
Coral Gables, Florida
1. Miami
2. Louisiana State
3. Florida International
4. Bethune-Cookman

Austin, Texas
1. Texas (N4)
2. Rice
3. Louisiana
4. Lamar
vs.
Fayetteville, Arkansas
1. Arkansas
2. Washington State
3. Baylor
4. St. Louis

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
1. Coastal Carolina (N5)
2. Clemson
3. Elon
4. Bucknell
vs.
Norwich, Connecticut
1. Florida State
2. Connecticut
3. Kansas State
4. Central Connecticut State

Los Angeles, California
1. UCLA (N6)
2. San Diego
3. UC Irvine
4. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
vs.
Fullerton, California
1. California State-Fullerton
2. Stanford
3. Hawaii
4. Minnesota

Atlanta, Georgia
1. Georgia Tech (N7)
2. Alabama
3. California
4. Mercer
vs.
Auburn, Alabama
1. Auburn
2. Oregon State
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Jacksonville State

Columbia, South Carolina
1. South Carolina (N8)
2. The Citadel
3. North Carolina
4. Rider
vs.
Louisville, Kentucky
1. Louisville
2. Virginia Tech
3. Kentucky
4. Kent State

Last Five: Louisiana, Elon, California, New Mexico, North Carolina State
Next Twelve: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, Western Kentucky, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee, Western Carolina, Liberty, Rutgers

Brian

[raginsaints]

Good thing i'm an insomniac. This looks a lot like what I've been seeing. Are you going for 100% accuracy?


igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ Good thing i'm an insomniac. This looks a lot like what I've been seeing. Are you going for 100% accuracy?

I spent a lot of time re-arranging the bracket to maximize ground travel. I used the NCAA mileage calculator extensively. I think you will find a large number of schools can bus and the regionals are well balanced.

I felt the host sites, national seeds, and #1 seeds were easy this year (of course, we will find out in the morning on the national seeds and #1 seeds). But I thought the last few remaining spots in the field were very difficult.

Hopefully I can get 15/16 or 16/16 #1 seeds, at least 7 of the national seeds, and at least 60/64 in the field.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Some comments ...

This is the tightest I remember the last 10 schools in the field of 64 ever being. But I do feel that if the NCAA selection committee exercises consistency in its application and weighting of the selection criteria for all comparisons ... and continues to value championships in strong conferences, the Cajuns will be playing baseball next weekend. And when you look at it from a conference viewpoint, the 6th best RPI conference in the country deserves three bids, especially if the Big East gets three and the Southern Conference gets three. Looking at the entire field, two bids would be an insult when you have a conference champion with solid numbers available for that third bid.

One piece of selection criteria that will help the Cajuns (and has hurt them in the past) is their strong Non-Conference RPI ranking. This came in at 44. Additionally, the Cajuns sport a Road RPI of 42 to complement their Adjusted RPI of 44 and Base RPI of 40.

The last two picks were quite difficult. In the end I opted for New Mexico and North Carolina State (last two teams in) over Arizona. If the selection committee does its homework and is not blinded by the RPI, Arizona should be out. The Wildcats have dropped 10 of their last 15 games and have a poor Road RPI of 96. They do not play much on the road. They opened the season with 28 consecutive home games and played only one game on the road vs. a non-Pac 10 foe (and only 15 road games all season). They also dropped a late season home series to lowly Cal State-Bakersfield. If it comes down to Arizona and New Mexico, they may rely on a midweek home series early in the season where Arizona took two games from the Lobos. But I feel Arizona should be punished for the dearth of road games (which inflates its RPI) and its poor finish.

We will see if the power conferences remain dominant (out of balance) and the selection committee grants that 8th bid to the #1 Pac 10 (a league of ten teams).

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

Brian, thanks for all the intensive work you do here on raginpagin. Good to see you have UL in the field. When I awoke this am and my first intention was to come check this website and see what you came up with.

I got 7/10 at-large projections you tested us on yesterday. Is 70% passing?

The 7 I had in that matched yours:
Louisiana
North Carolina
UC Irivine
Oregon St.
Orgegon
California
New Mexico

The 3 I had different:
Fresno St.
Florida Gulf Coast
Tex St.

you had
North Carolina St.
Kentucky
Elon

[J-Town Cajun]

Looking back I goofed on Fresno St. I gave too much credit on the fact that they won the WAC regulars season championship. Looking back they did not win tyhe WAC by a wide margin and their RPI sucks.

I would like to replace Fresono St. with North Carolina St. Most likey ACC gets a 7th team in.

What do you have against Florida Gulf Coast? They have a decent RPI, won their regular season champion by a wide margin (7 games), and they have quality wins over FAU, FIU, and Clemson.

[CajunRed]

Turns out going 2 and out in the tourny hurt us more than we thought. Seems we went from solidly in to on the fence. Going 2 and 2 would have made things so much easier.


igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

What do you have against Florida Gulf Coast? They have a decent RPI, won their regular season champion by a wide margin (7 games), and they have quality wins over FAU, FIU, and Clemson. _

I do not have anything against Florida Gulf Coast. I would not be surprised to see them in the field. They have one of the best pitchers in the country, big lefty Chris Sale, that projects well into the pros. He would be a very difficult opening round matchup for anyone (they fall off after that).

As I said in my comments, my last few picks were very difficult. I would like to see them in the field, I simply think that the committee is going to opt for the bigger conferences and grant bids to schools like NC State, California, possibly Arizona (which I do not have in my field), North Carolina, and Kentucky. Yes, FGC has a conference championship and that certainly means something ... but the #17 conference carries less weight (certainly less than the Sun Belt). It came down to comparisons with the teams I did have in the field and a couple I did not (Arizona, Wichita State).

While FGC has a decent Adjusted RPI Rank (42), their non-conference RPI Rank (80) was lower than most of the others and their overall SOS was lower than its peers (93). Their Road RPI was solid (35). But the biggest problem was their record vs. the RPI Top 25 (1-6), Top 50 (2-7), Top 75 (4-11), and Top 100 (6-12). Also, when evaluating a close comparison with Wichita State, the Shockers took 2/3 from FGC in a weekend series.

With respect to the quality wins, they split midweek games with FAU and FIU, but lost 3/4 to Clemson (Sale is almost always good for one win in a series ... he is 11-0).

I also posted an analysis of how FGC stacks up against the Cajuns. https://forumeus.com/sh...30&postcount=7

Brian

[CajunDreDog]

National Seeds:
1. Arizona State
2. Virginia
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. Coastal Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Georgia Tech
8. South Carolina

Tempe, Arizona
1. Arizona State (N1)
2. Mississippi
3. New Mexico
4. Stony Brook
vs.
Fort Worth, Texas
1. Texas Christian
2. Texas A&M
3. Oregon
4. Grambling State

Charlottesville, Virginia
1. Virginia (N2)
2. College of Charleston
3. St. John's
4. Virginia Commonwealth
vs.
Norman, Oklahoma
1. Oklahoma
2. Vanderbilt
3. Illinois State
4. Oral Roberts

Gainesville, Florida
1. Florida (N3)
2. Florida Atlantic
3. North Carolina State
4. Dartmouth
vs.
Coral Gables, Florida
1. Miami
2. Louisiana State
3. Florida International
4. Bethune-Cookman

Austin, Texas
1. Texas (N4)
2. Rice
3. Louisiana
4. Lamar
vs.
Fayetteville, Arkansas
1. Arkansas
2. Washington State
3. Baylor
4. St. Louis

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
1. Coastal Carolina (N5)
2. Clemson
3. Elon
4. Bucknell
vs.
Norwich, Connecticut
1. Florida State
2. Connecticut
3. Kansas State
4. Central Connecticut State

Los Angeles, California
1. UCLA (N6)
2. San Diego
3. UC Irvine
4. Wisconsin-Milwaukee
vs.
Fullerton, California
1. California State-Fullerton
2. Stanford
3. Hawaii
4. Minnesota

Atlanta, Georgia
1. Georgia Tech (N7)
2. Alabama
3. California
4. Mercer
vs.
Auburn, Alabama
1. Auburn
2. Oregon State
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Jacksonville State

Columbia, South Carolina
1. South Carolina (N8)
2. The Citadel
3. North Carolina
4. Rider
vs.
Louisville, Kentucky
1. Louisville
2. Virginia Tech
3. Kentucky
4. Kent State

Last Five: Louisiana, Elon, California, New Mexico, North Carolina State
Next Twelve: Arizona, Wichita State, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, Western Kentucky, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee, Western Carolina, Liberty, Rutgers

Brian

Can we just use these instead of whatever cr@p the NCAA comes up with?

[marine dude]

Man I hope the Cajuns name gets called early on in the broadcast. I don't think I can sweat this bad boy out for 30 minutes.

Thanks for all the analysis, Brian.

[GoneGolfin]

Some more analysis of my bracket ...

I worked hard to maximize ground travel (400 miles or less) for the schools. The following is a breakdown of this element of my projections.

- Only 20 of the 64 teams in the field require air travel
- 10 of the 16 regionals have either 3 or 4 teams traveling by bus
- 3 regionals (Austin, Louisville, and Charlottesville) require no air travel
- Only one regional has more than 2 teams traveling by air (Tempe). Ground travel to Tempe (other than the host) is not possible.

Thus, only 5 regionals have 2 teams traveling by air and 1 regional has 3 teams traveling by air. Two of these regionals have a school just over the 400 mile limit (Baylor going to Fayetteville (424 miles), New Mexico going to Tempe (452 miles)).

Brian

[LifeTimeCajun]

Brian u are da man. When do u sleep or have time for anything else??? Lol
igeaux.mobi