Final Regular Season RPI

[GoneGolfin]

Yesterday, the Cajuns leapfrogged both Florida Gulf Coast and Boston College in RPI ... maintaining a slim lead as reported this morning. Well, we had a reversal and the Cajuns trail by a slim margin. It will be interesting to see if the official NCAA report matches as we are talking about a differential of .0002 and .0003. Thus, the Cajuns finish the regular season with an Adjusted RPI Rank of 44 and a Base RPI Rank of 40.

Records vs. Base RPI:
vs. Top 25 0-0
vs. Top 50 3-4
vs. Top 75 14-13
vs. Top 100 15-17

Some other important numbers:
Non-Conference RPI (.5588, #44)
Road RPI (.5472, #42)
Strength of Schedule (SOS) (.5317, #66)
Last 15: 11-4

Conference RPI (End of Regular Season)
#1 0.5804 Pac-10
#2 0.5802 SEC
#3 0.5716 ACC
#4 0.5642 Big XII
#5 0.5314 CUSA
#6 0.5309 Sun Belt
#7 0.5301 Big East
#8 0.5255 Big West
#9 0.5222 Southern Conference
#10 0.5170 Mountain West
#11 0.5143 Big South
#12 0.5113 Southland
#13 0.5111 Big 10
#14 0.5030 Missouri Valley
#15 0.5029 WAC
#16 0.4984 Atlantic Sun
#17 0.4980 West Coast
#18 0.4881 Colonial
#19 0.4820 Mid-American
#20 0.4804 Ohio Valley

RPI (End of Regular Season)

1 0.6477 Arizona State 1 0.6429 0.0048 0
2 0.6386 Coastal Carolina 3 0.6320 0.0066 0
3 0.6367 Virginia 2 0.6355 0.0012 0
4 0.6294 Florida 4 0.6246 0.0048 0
5 0.6225 Texas 5 0.6225 0 0
6 0.6217 UCLA 6 0.6205 0.0012 0
7 0.6201 Louisville 7 0.6147 0.0054 0
8 0.6165 Miami Florida 8 0.6141 0.0036 0.0012
9 0.6126 Arkansas 9 0.6090 0.0036 0
10 0.6115 Cal State Fullerton 12 0.5995 0.0120 0
11 0.6110 Georgia Tech 10 0.6086 0.0024 0
12 0.6039 Alabama 14 0.5979 0.0060 0
13 0.6026 Vanderbilt 13 0.5984 0.0042 0
14 0.6006 Florida State 11 0.6006 0 0
15 0.5982 Texas Christian 19 0.5916 0.0066 0
16 0.5967 Auburn 15 0.5955 0.0012 0
17 0.5955 South Carolina 17 0.5925 0.0030 0
18 0.5955 Oklahoma 16 0.5931 0.0024 0
19 0.5943 Clemson 18 0.5919 0.0024 0
20 0.5891 Texas A&M 20 0.5891 0 0
21 0.5865 North Carolina 22 0.5865 0 0
22 0.5863 Louisiana State 21 0.5875 0 0.0012
23 0.5863 Connecticut 24 0.5833 0.0030 0
24 0.5842 Arizona 23 0.5842 0 0
25 0.5819 Oregon State 25 0.5819 0 0
26 0.5817 College of Charleston 27 0.5793 0.0024 0
27 0.5813 Mississippi 26 0.5813 0 0
28 0.5807 Washington State 31 0.5759 0.0048 0
29 0.5806 San Diego 33 0.5734 0.0072 0
30 0.5801 Rice 29 0.5765 0.0036 0
31 0.5781 Oregon 28 0.5769 0.0024 0.0012
32 0.5762 The Citadel 30 0.5762 0 0
33 0.5749 Kentucky 35 0.5707 0.0042 0
34 0.5741 Virginia Tech 32 0.5741 0 0
35 0.5726 Baylor 34 0.5726 0 0
36 0.5691 Stanford 36 0.5691 0 0
37 0.5690 California 38 0.5654 0.0036 0
38 0.5688 Florida Atlantic 37 0.5670 0.0018 0
39 0.5670 Kansas State 39 0.5640 0.0030 0
40 0.5654 Western Kentucky 41 0.5594 0.0060 0
41 0.5631 Elon 49 0.5547 0.0084 0
42 0.5625 Florida Gulf Coast 48 0.5553 0.0072 0
43 0.5624 Boston College 43 0.5588 0.0036 0
44 0.5622 Louisiana 40 0.5610 0.0012 0
45 0.5607 UC Irvine 42 0.5589 0.0018 0
46 0.5594 New Mexico 52 0.5522 0.0072 0
47 0.5592 Tennessee 50 0.5544 0.0048 0
48 0.5588 North Carolina State 44 0.5588 0 0
49 0.5586 Liberty 45 0.5586 0 0
50 0.5582 Florida International 47 0.5564 0.0018 0
51 0.5579 Texas State 46 0.5567 0.0012 0
52 0.5569 Rutgers 59 0.5497 0.0072 0
53 0.5560 Southeastern Louisiana 53 0.5518 0.0054 0.0012
54 0.5538 Appalachian State 51 0.5538 0 0
55 0.5538 Western Carolina 55 0.5514 0.0042 0.0018
56 0.5522 Wichita State 56 0.5510 0.0012 0
57 0.5517 Pittsburgh 54 0.5517 0 0
58 0.5516 St John's 57 0.5504 0.0036 0.0024
59 0.5513 Kansas 61 0.5465 0.0048 0
60 0.5501 Texas Tech 58 0.5501 0 0
61 0.5478 Troy 60 0.5466 0.0012 0
62 0.5470 Southern Mississippi 67 0.5434 0.0036 0
63 0.5469 Northwestern State 68 0.5433 0.0036 0
64 0.5459 Nebraska 62 0.5459 0 0
65 0.5453 Southern California 66 0.5435 0.0018 0
66 0.5448 Georgia Southern 63 0.5448 0 0
67 0.5447 Middle Tennessee State 64 0.5447 0 0
68 0.5446 Washington 65 0.5446 0 0
69 0.5409 Samford 73 0.5373 0.0036 0
70 0.5407 Michigan 71 0.5389 0.0018 0
71 0.5402 UC Riverside 69 0.5402 0 0
72 0.5401 South Alabama 70 0.5401 0 0
73 0.5394 Mississippi State 72 0.5382 0.0012 0
74 0.5383 Missouri 75 0.5359 0.0024 0
75 0.5365 James Madison 74 0.5365 0 0


Brian

[Dad2]

espn has cajuns out of their prejection

[CajunProud]

I have a bad feeling. If we don't get in, it's because we didn't take care of business. No excuse for flaming out in the conference tournament year after year. Let's hope the regular season conference championship is enough.


igeaux.mobi

[cajunhawk]

SE Baseball doesnt even has us in last five in. Thats a big difference. One has us safely in, other has us just barely out. ESPN has weird RPI numbers that aren't very accurate. I would go with SE Baseball on this one. ESPN's projection is the first I have heard to even have us close to the bubble. Makes me think they are way off base.

[Dad2]

will the selection show be on the net working monday

[sethmw]

Brian,

How confident are you that the Cajuns will be chosen tomorrow?
igeaux.mobi

[marine dude]

_ espn has cajuns out of their prejection _

Do you have a link for that?

edit - never mind, found it.

http://espn.go.com/ncaa/blog/_/name/...-fill-field-64

[cajunhawk]

_ Do you have a link for that? _

http://espn.go.com/ncaa/blog/_/name/...-fill-field-64

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian,

How confident are you that the Cajuns will be chosen tomorrow?

Confident ... but I am still working my way down the bracket.

The ESPN author (Jeremy Mills) selectively used criteria and was not consistent in his application. I would hope the selection committee (I think they will) will be consistent.

Note that this is the first publication I have seen that has the Cajuns anywhere near being out of the field.

Ex. In one breath, he talks about Elon finishing 3rd in a deep Southern Conference. But the Cajuns finishing tied for 1st in the deep Sun Belt does not seem to carry similar weight. The Southern Conference has an RPI rank of 9, the Sun Belt 6.

Ex.
ESPN has Louisiana out because of their record vs. RPI Top 50. But this is just a single criteria and the Cajuns are 3-4. Meanwhile, he has Florida Gulf Coast in the field (seemingly because he thinks it is a feel good story). Meanwhile, Florida Gulf Coast is 2-7 vs. the RPI Top 50. Let's compare resumes.

Conference Finish:
Louisiana Tied for 1st in the #6 RPI conference
Florida Gulf Coast was the conference champion in the #17 RPI conference

Base RPI Rank:
Louisiana: 40
Florida Gulf Coast: 48
.0057 separates the two schools

Adjusted RPI Rank:
Louisiana: 44
Florida Gulf Coast: 42
A mere .0003 separates the two schools.

Non-Conference RPI Rank:
Louisiana: 44
Florida Gulf Coast:80

Road RPI Rank:
Louisiana: 42
Florida Gulf Coast: 35

Strength of Schedule (SOS):
Louisiana: 66
Florida Gulf Coast: 93

Record in Last 15 games:
Louisiana: 11-4
Florida Gulf Coast: 10-5

Record vs. RPI Top 25:
Louisiana: 0-1
Florida Gulf Coast: 1-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:
Louisiana: 3-4 (3-3 vs. 26-50)
Florida Gulf Coast: 2-7 (1-1 vs. 26-50)

Record vs. RPI Top 75:
Louisiana: 14-13 (11-9 vs. 51-75)
Florida Gulf Coast: 4-11 (2-4 vs. 51-75)

Record vs. RPI Top 100:
Louisiana: 15-17 (1-4 vs. 76-100)
Florida Gulf Coast: 6-12 (2-1 vs. 76-100)

Record vs. RPI 101-150:
Louisiana: 9-2
Florida Gulf Coast: 10-4

Bad Losses (Record vs. RPI 151+)
Louisiana: 13-1
Florida Gulf Coast: 22-4 (26 games against weak competition ... and 4 losses)

I perform these cross comparisons for all-teams in the evaluation of national seeds, #1 seeds, making the field of 64, etc.

There are other examples in the ESPN projections as well. But I only have time for one in-depth look.

As with anything, it will come down to the lens through which the committee decides to view things. If they are consistent in their application, I am confident they are in.

Brian

[CajunZ1]

Please no...

igeaux.mobi

[sethmw]

Thanks Brian. You are really on top of things and a great resource

igeaux.mobi

[Parrott]

Spoke with a guy at Baseball America today. He said the Cajuns are in. He doesn't make the final decision - the selection committee does - but I think the Cajuns are in, too. Brian has pointed out why they should be in.

Otherwise, thank you for your updates, Brian. My apologies for the other day. It was a long weekend, and I didn't help that situation with my original reaction.

Thanks again.


igeaux.mobi