"Stolen" bids thus far ...

[GoneGolfin]

"Stolen" bids are auto bids won by teams in multi-bid leagues that otherwise would not qualify for the field of 64. Conference tournament play is now complete with respect to these bids.

Bolded teams indicate that these teams may have qualified for an at-large bid and thus may not constitute a stolen bid.

Stolen bids ...
- Illinois State (MVC) ... but only if Wichita State receives an at-large bid.
- Lamar (SLC) ... but only if Texas State (or possibly SLU) receives an at-large bid (their resume is not nearly as strong as the Cajuns').
- Southern Mississippi (CUSA)
- Florida International (Sun Belt)
- Mercer (ASun) ... but only if Florida Gulf Coast receives an at-large bid.
- St. John's (Big East)

Thus, we have a minimum of three stolen bids (Illinois State, St. John's, Southern Mississippi), with potentially two more (Lamar, Mercer) depending on whether or not Texas State and Florida Gulf Coast make the field respectively. Finally, we will never truly know whether FIU is a stolen bid ... but probably so.

This year has the real potential to exceed the average of 3.2 stolen bids over the past five years.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

The senario of either Troy or Ark St. winning the SBC tournament really scares me if Whittles continues his hitting streak. He is now at 53 and would go to 54. The NCAA and the TV market would really like to take FIU/Whittles to boost TV ratings and gain intrest in college baseball.

Brian what is FIU's RPI and what would you project if they were to lose.

In years past you have said that not only does the NCAA selection committee look at regular season record but they could add the SBC tournament record into the overall SBC record and this would give FIU a overall SBC record of 21-15 and UL 21-11.

[GoneGolfin]

_ The senario of either Troy or Ark St. winning the SBC tournament really scares me if Whittles continues his hitting streak. He is now at 53 and would go to 54. The NCAA and the TV market would really like to take FIU/Whittles to boost TV ratings and gain intrest in college baseball.

I brought up the possibility here ... https://forumeus.com/sh...97&postcount=9

Brian what is FIU's RPI and what would you project if they were to lose.

FIU's RPI is about .5563 after the earlier win today. Probably good for about #51, #52 now ... but there is more play today.

I cannot project a loss ... it depends on to whom they lose. But I would expect mid 50's rank (53-57).

In years past you have said that not only does the NCAA selection committee look at regular season record but they could add the SBC tournament record into the overall SBC record and this would give FIU a overall SBC record of 21-15 and UL 21-11. _

Yes, they count all conference games. UL still would have a considerably better record in the event of an FIU loss in the finals. But most important of all ... the Cajuns are conference champions (co-champs).

Data entering today ...

Adjusted RPI Ranking: UL 44, FIU 56 (about 51 after win over FAU, ~53-57 with our loss in the final scenario)
Regular Season Conference Finish: UL (T1st, conference champions), FIU (T4th)
Overall Conference Record: UL 21-11, FIU 21-14 (21-15 in our scenario)
Non-Conference RPI: UL 45, FIU 52
Road RPI: UL 45, FIU 86
Strength of Schedule (SOS): FIU 54, UL 66
Last 15: UL 11-4, FIU 10-5 (this would become 9-6 in our scenario)
Head-to-head: FIU 2-1 (all games at FIU)

Records vs. Base RPI: (includes games from today)
vs. Top 75: UL 14-13, FIU 16-16 (either 16-16 or 16-17 depending on loss to Troy or ASU in finals)
vs. Top 50: FIU 9-8, UL 3-4
vs. Top 100: FIU 17-19, UL 15-17 (draw)
vs. Top 25: UL 0-0, FIU 0-1 (draw)

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

_ I brought up the possibility here ... https://forumeus.com/sh...97&postcount=9


FIU's RPI is about .5563 after the earlier win today. Probably good for about #51, #52 now ... but there is more play today.

I cannot project a loss ... it depends on to whom they lose. But I would expect mid 50's rank (53-57).


Yes, they count all conference games. UL still would have a considerably better record in the event of an FIU loss in the finals. But most important of all ... the Cajuns are conference champions (co-champs).

Data entering today ...

Adjusted RPI Ranking: UL 44, FIU 56 (about 51 after win over FAU, ~53-57 with our loss in the final scenario)
Regular Season Conference Finish: UL (T1st, conference champions), FIU (T4th)
Overall Conference Record: UL 21-11, FIU 21-14 (21-15 in our scenario)
Non-Conference RPI: UL 45, FIU 52
Road RPI: UL 45, FIU 86
Strength of Schedule (SOS): FIU 54, UL 66
Last 15: UL 11-4, FIU 10-5 (this would become 9-6 in our scenario)

Records vs. Base RPI: (includes games from today)
vs. Top 75: UL 14-13, FIU 16-16 (either 16-16 or 16-17 depending on loss to Troy or ASU in finals)
vs. Top 50: FIU 9-8, UL 3-4
vs. Top 100: FIU 17-19, UL 15-17 (draw)
vs. Top 25: UL 0-0, FIU 0-1 (draw)

Brian _

Thanks, Brian. These numbers do make me feel a little better. If the NCAA does what they are supposed to do UL should be the 3rd team taken from the SBC if Troy or Ark St. were to win. Although I expect FIU to hit their way to a SBC tournament championship.

[GoneGolfin]

_ "Stolen" bids are auto bids won by teams in multi-bid leagues that otherwise would not qualify for the field of 64. Thus far, we have ...

Bolded teams indicate that these teams might qualify for an at-large bid and thus may not constitute a stolen bid.

Stolen bids ...
- Illinois State (MVC) ... but only if Wichita State receives an at-large bid.
- Arkansas State/Troy/Florida International (Sun Belt)

Candidate stolen bids:
- St. John's/Rutgers (Big East)
- Southern Mississippi (CUSA)
- Western Carolina/Appalachian State (Southern Conference)
- Lamar (SLC) ... but if only Texas State receives an at-large bid

Brian _

Texas State leads Lamar 4-2 B2nd (Lamar is the home team)

St. John's and Louisville are in a rain delay with St. John's batting in the B7th and leading 4-3.

The Western Carolina/Appalachian State winner meets The Citadel tomorrow for the auto bid. The Citadel is in the field, so we want them to win.

Brian

[Sonsissymia]

brian, any chance lsu hosts, as a 2 seed, if they win the sec tourney?

[CajunFan89]

_ brian, any chance lsu hosts, as a 2 seed, if they win the sec tourney? _

any chance of you not trolling this board and going back to tiger droppings???
there is your answer...

[GoneGolfin]

_ brian, any chance lsu hosts, as a 2 seed, if they win the sec tourney? _

No. The NCAA wants hosts to be #1 seeds. LSU is not a #1 seed. The exceptions are up north when they attempt to "expand the reach" of the sport. Additionally, there are other schools, in the SEC and elseware, that have better hosting resumes than LSU (with an SEC Tournament championship). One of Arkansas/Vanderbilt will not host. They are both more deserving than LSU. Mississippi also has a stronger resume. You could certainly argue Alabama does as well.

Also, no school has ever hosted with a losing record in the conference regular season. I am not sure how the selection committee would explain a 14-16 8th place regular season team hosting ... especially one that also does not have a #1 seed RPI and other #1 seed credentials.

It also would make no sense for LSU to be granted a host before Rice. I think Rice has an outside chance to host ... and would certainly be in line before LSU.

LSU hosting simply does not make any sense on the basis of merit ... and these days (unlike the 80's and 90's), hosting is based on merit for 15/16 or 16/16 sites, with potentially a small amount of charity for a northern school that had a solid season.

I also believe that the sites will be announced before the conclusion of the SEC Tournament Final ... thus any decision regarding regional host sites is being evaluated now.

Brian

[bballholic]

brian, any chance lsu hosts, as a 2 seed, if they win the sec tourney?

Don't see it happening. They would have a good shot had they not lost to Tulane and MSU in the final week. I can promise you one thing, nobody wants to see LSU as a #2 seed or UL as a 3/4 seed in their regional.


igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ Don't see it happening. They would have a good shot had they not lost to Tulane and MSU in the final week. I can promise you one thing, nobody wants to see LSU as a #2 seed or UL as a 3/4 seed in their regional.

UL would not be a #4 seed. Chances are, like most years, there will not be any #4 seed at-large bids. This only happens when there are zero, one, and possibly two "stolen" bids.

Brian

[Sonsissymia]

_ any chance of you not trolling this board and going back to tiger droppings???
there is your answer... _

not even enrolled to post there, '89. putting my daughter thru ul for her 12/09 degree has made me an honorary cajun fan, and i'm a'stayin', your eloquent "answer" notwithstanding.

[Sonsissymia]

_ No. The NCAA wants hosts to be #1 seeds. LSU is not a #1 seed. The exceptions are up north when they attempt to "expand the reach" of the sport. Additionally, there are other schools, in the SEC and elseware, that have better hosting resumes than LSU (with an SEC Tournament championship). One of Arkansas/Vanderbilt will not host. They are both more deserving than LSU. Mississippi also has a stronger resume. You could certainly argue Alabama does as well.

Also, no school has ever hosted with a losing record in the conference regular season. I am not sure how the selection committee would explain a 14-16 8th place regular season team hosting ... especially one that also does not have a #1 seed RPI and other #1 seed credentials.

It also would make no sense for LSU to be granted a host before Rice. I think Rice has an outside chance to host ... and would certainly be in line before LSU.

LSU hosting simply does not make any sense on the basis of merit ... and these days (unlike the 80's and 90's), hosting is based on merit for 15/16 or 16/16 sites, with potentially a small amount of charity for a northern school that had a solid season.

I also believe that the sites will be announced before the conclusion of the SEC Tournament Final ... thus any decision regarding regional host sites is being evaluated now.

Brian _

thanks brian; i figured that, but one can hope.