RPI Friday 5/28/2010 (through yesterday's games)

[Sonsissymia]

_ 2008 (?) Monroe won the regular season title and got left out! _

i don't know this stuff like some of y'all do, but if the rpi is mid-40's, and a bunch of the 64 slots are occupied by conference champs below the mid-40's, can't a team like the cajuns get nosed out?

[BGlass29]

I'm more nervous than most, but that's because I have no idea how the NCAA arives at their final few picks.


igeaux.mobi

[raginsaints]

I have no idea either, I just listen to Brian and Jay.

[J-Town Cajun]

_ i don't know this stuff like some of y'all do, but if the rpi is mid-40's, and a bunch of the 64 slots are occupied by conference champs below the mid-40's, can't a team like the cajuns get nosed out? _

There are 32 automatic bid with 32 conferences. That leaves 32 at-large bids to be given out. Even if all 32 conference champions were bad RPI teams and jumped up and took away an at large bid from someone the top 32 RPI teams in the country would have a shot at an at-large bid. The Cajuns are roughly #44 in RPI so right there we are not that for from the worst case scenario. Also for UL's case throw in a conference championship from the #6 conference (yes I said #6, today according to warrennolan.com we passed up the Big East) along with a terrific 2nd half of the season and a record of 11-4 record in the last 15 games we are sitting in good shape. Now there will not be 32 bad RPI teams to win there conference tournament so there be many more teams outside of the top 32 RPI that will get invited to a regional.

It doesn't hurt the Cajuns to pull for FAU and the best team good RPI teams from 1 bid conferences such as Wichita St and Texas St. This would leave open more at-large bids.

Brian and Jay say it is a lock UL gets a bid. I say if FAU wins the tourney UL is a lock. If someone else does and there are many upset conference champs such as a Lamar in the Southland, UL may get left out. If I was a betting man and I am and I was playing poker I would not go all in but almost all in that UL will get into a regional. I would save enough money to get gas and a beer for the ride home.

[GoneGolfin]

_ 2008 (?) Monroe won the regular season title and got left out! _

ULM had an RPI ranking of 98 at selection time. They were not getting in without the auto bid.

Every Sun Belt regular season conference champion with an RPI in the Top 75 (and there were some in the 60's and 70's) has made the field of 64 since the new tournament format commenced (in '99) ... in fact, every conference champion since '94.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ i don't know this stuff like some of y'all do, but if the rpi is mid-40's, and a bunch of the 64 slots are occupied by conference champs below the mid-40's, can't a team like the cajuns get nosed out? _

The Cajuns are conference champions.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ There are 32 automatic bid with 32 conferences. That leaves 32 at-large bids to be given out.

30 automatic bids ... 34 at-large bids.

Also for UL's case throw in a conference championship from the #6 conference (yes I said #6, today according to warrennolan.com we passed up the Big East)

Avoid warrennolan.com for Baseball RPI. These are just the Base RPI formulas and thus are quite different from actual RPI (Adjusted RPI). The Sun Belt is still 7th behind the Big East, but it is extremely close. Simply teams falling in/out of bonus tiers is enough to trigger a change.

That said, while it is extremely close, the NCAA selection committee is not going to look at four decimal place numbers to determine how close they are. They are simply going to look at an integer ranking. In the Nitty Gritty report that each selection member receives there will be a 6 or 7 next to the Big East and a 6 or 7 next to the Sun Belt. The last couple of days of play across the country will decide this.

Brian and Jay say it is a lock UL gets a bid. I say if FAU wins the tourney UL is a lock.

"Lock" is a shorthand summary that prevents you from explaining the unnatural circumstances that would need to occur for a team to not make the field. Engaging in such an explanation of what would need to happen for a negative scenario would make folks' eyes rollover. Thus, we simplify.

Of course, if there were enough conference tournament upsets, you can argue that teams that would normally be fence #2/#3 seeds would be at risk (I am talking about extreme cases of 16 stolen bids instead of 3) ... but it is not going to happen.

I will know more Sunday night ... but I know that the number of conference tournament upsets that would need to occur to boot the Cajuns would be a very large number. I do not have the Cajuns as one of the last five teams in the field if stolen bids in 2010 hit the average of three ... that much I can say without having complete results through Sunday.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Accidental double post.

[J-Town Cajun]

_ 30 automatic bids ... 34 at-large bids.


Avoid warrennolan.com for Baseball RPI. These are just the Base RPI formulas and thus are quite different from actual RPI (Adjusted RPI). The Sun Belt is still 7th behind the Big East, but it is extremely close. Simply teams falling in/out of bonus tiers is enough to trigger a change.

That said, while it is extremely close, the NCAA selection committee is not going to look at four decimal place numbers to determine how close they are. They are simply going to look at an integer ranking. In the Nitty Gritty report that each selection member receives there will be a 6 or 7 next to the Big East and a 6 or 7 next to the Sun Belt. The last couple of days of play across the country will decide this.


"Lock" is a shorthand summary that prevents you from explaining the unnatural circumstances that would need to occur for a team to not make the field. Engaging in such an explanation of what would need to happen for a negative scenario would make folks' eyes rollover. Thus, we simplify.

Of course, if there were enough conference tournament upsets, you can argue that teams that would normally be fence #2/#3 seeds would be at risk (I am talking about extreme cases of 16 stolen bids instead of 3) ... but it is not going to happen.

I will know more Sunday night ... but I know that the number of conference tournament upsets that would need to occur to boot the Cajuns would be a very large number. I do not have the Cajuns as one of the last five teams in the field if stolen bids in 2010 hit the average of three ... that much I can say without having complete results through Sunday.

Brian _

Brian I though you said at one time that for conference rankings the NCAA uses a base RPI such as warrennolan.com. I may have misheard/misread or misunderstood you.

After your post I looked at the conference RPI closer and noticed warrennolan.com ranked 32 spots but 1 was independents. Which conference does not award an automatic bid. I am assuming it is a conference with not enough teams to qualify?

30 automatic bids are better than 32. That opens 2 more spots than I had originally thought.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian I though you said at one time that for conference rankings the NCAA uses a base RPI such as warrennolan.com. I may have misheard/misread or misunderstood you.

Also note that warrennolan.com is not correct for the Base RPI either. For example, Louisiana has a Base RPI of .5619 ... not .5614. As I said, avoid it.

If I did, I misspoke. But I can verify by working the math. I do not see why they would not use the Adjusted RPI.

Warrennolan.com does not compute the Base RPI correctly either. For example, Louisiana has a Base RPI of .5619 ... not .5614.

Note that Boyd has the Big East at #6 again.

After your post I looked at the conference RPI closer and noticed warrennolan.com ranked 32 spots but 1 was independents. Which conference does not award an automatic bid. I am assuming it is a conference with not enough teams to qualify?

The Great West is not awarded an automatic bid.

Brian

[Boomer]

_ Accidental double post. _

Watch it---A board cop jumped my ass for that!!!!!

[CajunT]

_ Watch it---A board cop jumped my ass for that!!!!! _

Yes, but posting under the influence, much like driving deserves some type of penalty! LOL!!