RPI Projections

[GoneGolfin]

Here a few RPI projections based on the upcoming Arkansas State game and an 0-2 conference worst case tourney scenario. The below keeps the OWP and OOWP variables constant, except for the results vs. Arkansas State and in the last projection, Arkansas State and Troy. Even though these variables are held constant, I do not expect much variation here.

Current Adjusted RPI: .5694 (#37) (includes RPI bonus of .0012)

Adjusted RPI Projection w/ win vs. Arkansas State: .5707
Using the current Adjusted RPI, this would be good for #35, but is just .0002 ahead of The Citadel and Western Kentucky

Adjusted RPI Projection w/ loss vs. Arkansas State: .5661
Using the current Adjusted RPI, this would be good for #42 (.0005 ahead of New Mexico).

Adjusted RPI Projection w/ loss vs. Arkansas State and loss vs. Troy (worst case 0-2 scenario): .5639
Using the current Adjusted RPI, this would be good for #45 (.0002 ahead of UC Irvine)

Brian

[jumboragncajun]

_ Here a few RPI projections based on the upcoming Arkansas State game and an 0-2 conference worst case tourney scenario. The below keeps the OWP and OOWP variables constant, except for the results vs. Arkansas State and in the last projection, Arkansas State and Troy. Even though these variables are held constant, I do not expect much variation here.

Current Adjusted RPI: .5694 (#37) (includes RPI bonus of .0012)

Adjusted RPI Projection w/ win vs. Arkansas State: .5707
Using the current Adjusted RPI, this would be good for #35, but is just .0002 ahead of The Citadel and Western Kentucky

Adjusted RPI Projection w/ loss vs. Arkansas State: .5661
Using the current Adjusted RPI, this would be good for #42 (.0005 ahead of New Mexico).

Adjusted RPI Projection w/ loss vs. Arkansas State and loss vs. Troy (worst case 0-2 scenario): .5639
Using the current Adjusted RPI, this would be good for #45 (.0002 ahead of UC Irvine)

Brian _

I know you have said with confidence that the Cajuns are in, but I like what Robe said about not leaving our fate in the hands of a bunch of strangers.
2006 haunts me.

[GoneGolfin]

I know you have said with confidence that the Cajuns are in, but I like what Robe said about not leaving our fate in the hands of a bunch of strangers.
2006 haunts me. _

You want to keep winning to keep sharp and potentially earn a #2 seed (which they are not at the moment). But I am not in the least bit concerned about being left out of the field of 64. There is a mountain of difference between 2006 and 2010.

1) The Cajuns are conference champions in 2010. The Cajuns finished 2nd in 2006.

2) The Cajuns had an RPI rank of 53 at selection time in 2006. The current worst case scenario (2010) is about 45. An RPI not in the top 50 is in the danger zone, unless you are a conference champion. The Cajuns have both. The only season the Sun Belt did not have its conference champion(s) make the NCAA Tournament (since 1994 ... old tournament format) was last year when ULM had an RPI of 101.

3) The Sun Belt had a strong conference RPI rank in 2006 (7), but 2010 sports a conference RPI rank of (6).

4) The Cajuns were not deemed by the NCAA as 2nd in the Sun Belt pecking order in 2006. South Alabama was deemed 2nd due to their RPI rank of 37 (season series was split). In 2010, the Cajuns are no worse than second in the Sun Belt pecking order. This is also likely not a two bid conference.

5) In 2006, the Cajuns had a non-conference RPI rank of 105. That number is 43 in 2010.

6) In 2006, the Cajuns were 9-6 over their last 15 games. Worst case scenario in 2010 is 11-4.

7) Records vs. the RPI Top 75 are similar ... 10-7 in 2006 and 14-12 in 2010.

8) The 2010 season is more like the 2005 season from the perspective of the NCAA. In 2005, the Cajuns were conference champions and had an RPI rank of 41, a non-conference RPI rank of 22, but were 8-7 over their last 15 and the Sun Belt had an RPI rank of 14. The Cajuns were a #3 seed in the Tulane hosted regional.

Brian

[CajunRed]

_ You want to keep winning to keep sharp and potentially earn a #2 seed (which they are not at the moment). But I am not in the least bit concerned about being left out of the field of 64. There is a mountain of difference between 2006 and 2010.

1) The Cajuns are conference champions in 2010. The Cajuns finished 2nd in 2006.

2) The Cajuns had an RPI rank of 53 at selection time in 2006. The current worst case scenario (2010) is about 45. An RPI not in the top 50 is in the danger zone, unless you are a conference champion. The Cajuns have both. The only season the Sun Belt did not have its conference champion(s) make the NCAA Tournament (since 1994 ... old tournament format) was last year when ULM had an RPI of 101.

3) The Sun Belt had a strong conference RPI rank in 2006 (7), but 2010 sports a conference RPI rank of (6).

4) The Cajuns were not deemed by the NCAA as 2nd in the Sun Belt pecking order in 2006. South Alabama was deemed 2nd due to their RPI rank of 37 (season series was split). In 2010, the Cajuns are no worse than second in the Sun Belt pecking order. This is also likely not a two bid conference.

5) In 2006, the Cajuns had a non-conference RPI rank of 105. That number is 43 in 2010.

6) In 2006, the Cajuns were 9-6 over their last 15 games. Worst case scenario in 2010 is 11-4.

7) Records vs. the RPI Top 75 are similar ... 10-7 in 2006 and 14-12 in 2010.

8) The 2010 season is more like the 2005 season from the perspective of the NCAA. In 2005, the Cajuns were conference champions and had an RPI rank of 41, a non-conference RPI rank of 22, but were 8-7 over their last 15 and the Sun Belt had an RPI rank of 14. The Cajuns were a #3 seed in the Tulane hosted regional.

Brian _

I was just about to post all of this... then I saw you had already done it!

[GoneGolfin]

_ I was just about to post all of this... then I saw you had already done it! _

You get the next one.

Brian

[LifeTimeCajun]

I wish I had all your knowledge mr Peter gammons of college baseball. Lol I really really hope your right. I like our side of the bracket for the tourney and think we will make it to sat even with MTSU being the host team at there place.

igeaux.mobi

[LifeTimeCajun]

Any word yet on Riddings MRI?
igeaux.mobi