RPI 5/13/2010 (Not good news)

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns' RPI took a hit last night due to several things ...

- Cajun opponents did not fare well. Looking at the scoreboard makes this obvious. This prompted the Cajuns OWP to fall from .5534 to .5510. Their OOWP also fell some, from .5165 to .5158.

- Northwestern State fell out of the Base RPI Top 75 (#79). This eliminated .0012 from the Cajuns Adjusted RPI.

With the above, the Cajuns' Base RPI fell from .5725 to .5711. Meanwhile, the Adjusted RPI fell significantly from .5737 to .5711 (Adjusted RPI is now the same as the Base RPI). This results in a fall in the ordinal rankings from #34 to #36 ... still tightly packed.

The other unfortunate item to mention is that with Northwestern State's Base RPI falling out of the Base RPI Top 75, the Cajuns now have a losing record against the Base RPI 75 (instead of 12-11, the Cajuns are now 10-11). As mentioned several times previously, it is important that Middle Tennessee, Troy, and Northwestern State remain in the Base RPI Top 75 ... this gives the Cajuns an 8-0 record in this segment.

Also, Western Kentucky is about to fall out of the Base RPI Top 50 (#46). Winning 2/3 from Western Kentucky may drop them from the Base RPI Top 50 and the Cajuns will not get the boost to their Base RPI Top 50 W/L record that they wanted. Of course, Western Kentucky can still get back into the Top 50.

26 0.5859 Virginia Tech 25 0.5847
27 0.5846 North Carolina 26 0.5846
28 0.5841 Rice 27 0.5799
29 0.5838 Kentucky 28 0.5790
30 0.5775 New Mexico 36 0.5703
31 0.5769 California 32 0.5733
32 0.5769 Oregon State 30 0.5769
33 0.5745 Florida Atlantic 33 0.5727
34 0.5739 Texas A&M 31 0.5739
35 0.5717 Washington State 39 0.5663
36 0.5711 Louisiana 34 0.5711
37 0.5705 College of Charleston 35 0.5705
38 0.5702 Texas State 37 0.5684
39 0.5685 Tennessee 43 0.5643
40 0.5683 Western Kentucky 46 0.5623
41 0.5679 Stanford 38 0.5679
42 0.5670 Florida Gulf Coast 49 0.5592
43 0.5658 Kansas State 45 0.5628
44 0.5655 Texas Tech 41 0.5655
45 0.5651 Pittsburgh 42 0.5651
46 0.5643 Liberty 40 0.5655
47 0.5637 UC Irvine 47 0.5613
48 0.5636 The Citadel 44 0.5636
49 0.5619 Boston College 50 0.5589
50 0.5617 Elon 55 0.5551

Brian

[CajunRed]

_ The Cajuns' RPI took a hit last night due to several things ...

- Cajun opponents did not fare well. Looking at the scoreboard makes this obvious. This prompted the Cajuns OWP to fall from .5534 to .5510. Their OOWP also fell some, from .5165 to .5158.

- Northwestern State fell out of the Base RPI Top 75 (#79). This eliminated .0012 from the Cajuns Adjusted RPI.

With the above, the Cajuns' Base RPI fell from .5725 to .5711. Meanwhile, the Adjusted RPI fell significantly from .5737 to .5711 (Adjusted RPI is now the same as the Base RPI). This results in a fall in the ordinal rankings from #34 to #36 ... still tightly packed.

The other unfortunate item to mention is that with Northwestern State's Base RPI falling out of the Base RPI Top 75, the Cajuns now have a losing record against the Base RPI 75 (instead of 12-11, the Cajuns are now 10-11). As mentioned several times previously, it is important that Middle Tennessee, Troy, and Northwestern State remain in the Base RPI Top 75 ... this gives the Cajuns an 8-0 record in this segment.

Also, Western Kentucky is about to fall out of the Base RPI Top 50 (#46). Winning 2/3 from Western Kentucky may drop them from the Base RPI Top 50 and the Cajuns will not get the boost to their Base RPI Top 50 W/L record that they wanted. Of course, Western Kentucky can still get back into the Top 50.

26 0.5859 Virginia Tech 25 0.5847
27 0.5846 North Carolina 26 0.5846
28 0.5841 Rice 27 0.5799
29 0.5838 Kentucky 28 0.5790
30 0.5775 New Mexico 36 0.5703
31 0.5769 California 32 0.5733
32 0.5769 Oregon State 30 0.5769
33 0.5745 Florida Atlantic 33 0.5727
34 0.5739 Texas A&M 31 0.5739
35 0.5717 Washington State 39 0.5663
36 0.5711 Louisiana 34 0.5711
37 0.5705 College of Charleston 35 0.5705
38 0.5702 Texas State 37 0.5684
39 0.5685 Tennessee 43 0.5643
40 0.5683 Western Kentucky 46 0.5623
41 0.5679 Stanford 38 0.5679
42 0.5670 Florida Gulf Coast 49 0.5592
43 0.5658 Kansas State 45 0.5628
44 0.5655 Texas Tech 41 0.5655
45 0.5651 Pittsburgh 42 0.5651
46 0.5643 Liberty 40 0.5655
47 0.5637 UC Irvine 47 0.5613
48 0.5636 The Citadel 44 0.5636
49 0.5619 Boston College 50 0.5589
50 0.5617 Elon 55 0.5551

Brian _

Brian...

I know you can't say for sure until it (the rest of the season) actually happens, but would it be your guess that IF the Cajuns take care of their own business and go... say... 6 and 1 to end the season, that any hit(s) they may take here and there (as we did last night) would largely be offset by the direct bump they get from just plain winning?

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian...

I know you can't say for sure until it (the rest of the season) actually happens, but would it be your guess that IF the Cajuns take care of their own business and go... say... 6 and 1 to end the season, that any hit(s) they may take here and there (as we did last night) would largely be offset by the direct bump they get from just plain winning? _

If the Cajuns finish 6-1, their RPI is going to be just fine. That kind of finish would likely place them around #32 (RPI ordinal rank).

I ran a little experiment in my laboratory. Let's assume that the Cajuns' opponents' winning percentages remain as is. That is, the individual OWP values for each Cajun opponent remain constant (Note that games against the Cajuns are not included when calculating each opponent WP). This does not mean that the Cajun OWP will not change. It will because we are adding two new opponents (Western Kentucky and ULM), while adding additional weight to McNeese State. Let's also assume that the Cajuns OOWP remains constant.

Going 6-1 in the last seven games will change the Cajuns' WP and OWP to .6909 (from .6667) and .5458 (from .5510) respectively. Keeping a constant .5158 OOWP gives us an RPI of .5746. Assuming that Northwestern State remains outside of the Base RPI Top 75 (no RPI bonus for the Cajuns), the Adjusted RPI would be .5746. This would be good for an ordinal rank of #33 in the current Adjusted RPI rankings.

Brian

[CajunRed]

_ If the Cajuns finish 6-1, their RPI is going to be just fine. That kind of finish would likely place them around #32 (RPI ordinal rank).

I ran a little experiment in my laboratory. Let's assume that the Cajuns' opponents' winning percentages remain as is. That is, the individual OWP values for each Cajun opponent remain constant (Note that games against the Cajuns are not included when calculating each opponent WP). This does not mean that the Cajun OWP will not change. It will because we are adding two new opponents (Western Kentucky and ULM), while adding additional weight to McNeese State. Let's also assume that the Cajuns OOWP remains constant.

Going 6-1 in the last seven games will change the Cajuns' WP and OWP to .6909 (from .6667) and .5458 (from .5510) respectively. Keeping a constant .5158 OOWP gives us an RPI of .5746. Assuming that Northwestern State remains outside of the Base RPI Top 75 (no RPI bonus for the Cajuns), the Adjusted RPI would be .5746. This would be good for an ordinal rank of #33 in the current Adjusted RPI rankings.

Brian _

I had the thought. YOU had the brains to prove it!